What is the most cost-effective way to SHORT USD over 2 years period?

[poker_trader]

Hi everyone,
I am a newbie, and not too sure what financial instrument I should use if I want to short USD over about 2 years period. appeciate any help please.
Is buying gold (lyxor bullions or ETFS Gold backed by physical gold) a good way too?
Cheers

 

[kamon]

i wouldn't short the dollar for that long
in about one year we'll see the dollar rise against the euro and major currencies
gold is only good when the economy is suffering
there will be rallies in about 6 months [it's better to be a month late than a month soon]
so gold is good for about 6 months to an year and after that, significant price correction but there's always money to be made

 

[littlemog]

Perhaps a shorter timeframe might be more easy if you're new (weeks/month).

 

[Rossini]

I dont know the answer to the question. However the guy did not ask for your opinion on shorting the USD he asked whats the most cost effective way. He obviously shares a similar fundemental view with me, though shorting the Eur now would be good also. I think I would short it against the AUD.

 

[kamon]

I dont know the answer to the question. However the guy did not ask for your opinion on shorting the USD he asked whats the most cost effective way. He obviously shares a similar fundemental view with me, though shorting the Eur now would be good also. I think I would short it against the AUD.

then i don't think there's an answer to the question
if we all knew the answer then everyone would be doing it
calculating the risk/return ration, i'd say make a short term poisiton shorting the dollar if you can wait that long
and i agree, shorting the euro now might be very profitable in a year or so

 

[a_gnome]

Hi everyone,
I am a newbie, and not too sure what financial instrument I should use if I want to short USD over about 2 years period. appeciate any help please.
Is buying gold (lyxor bullions or ETFS Gold backed by physical gold) a good way too?
Cheers

If you want to be short the USD for a 2 year period then you could short the dollar index futures. You will need to roll your position every 3 months as I expect that the futures are not very liquid 2 years out. Alternatively you could do a basket of forex trades in the forward market (as opposed to the spot market). For this you should be able to get a price 2 years out.

Hope this helps.

 

[poker_trader]

If you want to be short the USD for a 2 year period then you could short the dollar index futures. You will need to roll your position every 3 months as I expect that the futures are not very liquid 2 years out. Alternatively you could do a basket of forex trades in the forward market (as opposed to the spot market). For this you should be able to get a price 2 years out.

Hope this helps.

Cheers. how exactly should I do that though? i.e which trading platform

 

[a_gnome]

Cheers. how exactly should I do that though? i.e which trading platform

Well, if you want to go the futures route then you need to open a brokerage account. I would personally recommend Interactive Brokers though others will have their own opinions on this. To trade the FX forwards you are going to need a more sophisticated FX broker than the average on-line bucket shop who normally only allow you to trade spot. This would involve dealing over the phone where you can then ask for the spot trade to be rolled forward to your desired delivery date. Perhaps the Deutsche Bank retail platform might allow you to do this though I don't know for certain. Maybe someone else can recommend someone.

 

[Rhody Trader]

Hi everyone,
I am a newbie, and not too sure what financial instrument I should use if I want to short USD over about 2 years period. appeciate any help please.
Is buying gold (lyxor bullions or ETFS Gold backed by physical gold) a good way too?
Cheers

Are you trying to hedge something? If so, a hedge of what?

Or is this just a speculation play that the dollar will decline in value in the next 24 months?

 

[poker_trader]

no I am just speculating that $ will decline in value in the next 24 months.

 

[Depth Trade]

Hi everyone,
I am a newbie, and not too sure what financial instrument I should use if I want to short USD over about 2 years period. appeciate any help please.
Is buying gold (lyxor bullions or ETFS Gold backed by physical gold) a good way too?
Cheers

Good play

First thing , you want to be unleveraged if holding that long. I recommend buying physical Metals over paper, you might as well, if your going to be unleverage.

Your issue is going to be timing.


How much do you want to convert?

 

[Depth Trade]

Hi everyone,
I am a newbie, and not too sure what financial instrument I should use if I want to short USD over about 2 years period. appeciate any help please.
Is buying gold (lyxor bullions or ETFS Gold backed by physical gold) a good way too?
Cheers

Keep your eye on my moves, I am currently converting over 500k to metals over a period of 7 years and am going to be making the first purchase for the account this weekend if everthing close where I want.

I can give you the best positioning.

 

[gooseman]

options. all about options

 

[poker_trader]

Good play

First thing , you want to be unleveraged if holding that long. I recommend buying physical Metals over paper, you might as well, if your going to be unleverage.

Your issue is going to be timing.


How much do you want to convert?

Problem with buying real physical Metals is liquidity I guess. I am looking to hold about a low 6 figures of metals. What do you think is the best way to capitalise on the dollar decline? gold or silver or palladium or platinum etc.., and reasons why?

 

[poker_trader]

options. all about options

mind explaining and teaching me a thing or two please?

 

[Depth Trade]

options. all about options

Your right about options gooseman. Buy us a couple Calls on market open, I'll pay you later.

 

[Depth Trade]

Problem with buying real physical Metals is liquidity I guess. I am looking to hold about a low 6 figures of metals. What do you think is the best way to capitalise on the dollar decline? gold or silver or palladium or platinum etc.., and reasons why?

Hello Poker Trader, I'd say Silver. It had a high of 45$ back in the 80's, gold and platinum have already seen there 80's high, but silver has yet to reach it again. It will though.

Poker trader, the best way to capitalise on the decline is on Entrance. I would suggest we purchase 1% (maybe 2%) of your capital every few weeks, when my model signals. 80% of the time your positions will end the week up, save about 15% on overall purchase price.
I am personally short the USD this week, long Metals.

 

[luckyd1976]

Hi everyone,
I am a newbie, and not too sure what financial instrument I should use if I want to short USD over about 2 years period. appeciate any help please.

Try the PowerShares ETFs (USD Bearish =UDN/Bullish =UUP)
UDN: Summary for PS DB USD IDX BR FD - Yahoo! Finance
UUP: Summary for PS DB USD IDX BL FD - Yahoo! Finance