Well, back from the piste. Had a week of rain, then it dropped a foot of snow overnight meaning (hoping!) that I was going to bet snowed in! Unfortunately, it takes more than a foot of snow to stop the swiss!! Anyway hope you all had a great New Year.
The rain meant that while everyone else was sleeping, I could get a quick peak of Bloomberg...and could I believe what I saw. First, a mini collapse, then a Fed cut, then a rally, then a collapse!!
What does this tell us. Well, some commentators suggest the US may even have entered recession, and that this move smacked of panic in trying to plug the dyke. Some others suggest that maybe the Fed are aware of other problems lurking that have not yet surfaced. Some others are even more bearish, suggesting that because inflationary pressures are rising, the scope for further reductions in interest rates end of Jan is tight.
What this really shows is that leaping before you look is a way to be punished. Similarly, most TA indicators suggest you should await confirmation by price, before running in. For every occassion yo make 5% instead of 10%, there may be many more where you will lose.
Most people remain bearish right now. Yesterday was a valuable week to analyse behaviour. Lets learn, trade short term, and be happy with any profit that you can take, however small.
Hope I don't sound too depressing for my first post of 2001!!!
Matk
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The rain meant that while everyone else was sleeping, I could get a quick peak of Bloomberg...and could I believe what I saw. First, a mini collapse, then a Fed cut, then a rally, then a collapse!!
What does this tell us. Well, some commentators suggest the US may even have entered recession, and that this move smacked of panic in trying to plug the dyke. Some others suggest that maybe the Fed are aware of other problems lurking that have not yet surfaced. Some others are even more bearish, suggesting that because inflationary pressures are rising, the scope for further reductions in interest rates end of Jan is tight.
What this really shows is that leaping before you look is a way to be punished. Similarly, most TA indicators suggest you should await confirmation by price, before running in. For every occassion yo make 5% instead of 10%, there may be many more where you will lose.
Most people remain bearish right now. Yesterday was a valuable week to analyse behaviour. Lets learn, trade short term, and be happy with any profit that you can take, however small.
Hope I don't sound too depressing for my first post of 2001!!!
Matk
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