What have you all been up to?

Well, back from the piste. Had a week of rain, then it dropped a foot of snow overnight meaning (hoping!) that I was going to bet snowed in! Unfortunately, it takes more than a foot of snow to stop the swiss!! Anyway hope you all had a great New Year.

The rain meant that while everyone else was sleeping, I could get a quick peak of Bloomberg...and could I believe what I saw. First, a mini collapse, then a Fed cut, then a rally, then a collapse!!

What does this tell us. Well, some commentators suggest the US may even have entered recession, and that this move smacked of panic in trying to plug the dyke. Some others suggest that maybe the Fed are aware of other problems lurking that have not yet surfaced. Some others are even more bearish, suggesting that because inflationary pressures are rising, the scope for further reductions in interest rates end of Jan is tight.

What this really shows is that leaping before you look is a way to be punished. Similarly, most TA indicators suggest you should await confirmation by price, before running in. For every occassion yo make 5% instead of 10%, there may be many more where you will lose.

Most people remain bearish right now. Yesterday was a valuable week to analyse behaviour. Lets learn, trade short term, and be happy with any profit that you can take, however small.

Hope I don't sound too depressing for my first post of 2001!!!

More than ever, we have to throw away our blinkers. Remember last year, terrible year, or was it.. lots of co's doubled. Problem was that they weren't the ones we were looking at.
Be it dot.com or water company.. something is going to do well this year. We've got to keep our eyes on sector/group rotation. Keep an open mind.
Welcome back Titus, hope you had a good break. You haven't missed much, markets could go either way. Difficult call, anyway enough of that. Compliments of the season to you.

Hi Mark,

Welcome back..hope you enjoyed your break and saved enough energy to deal with this sort of market..I am not complaining market is market..can't be up or down or sideways all the time..we need to learn how to deal with all sorts and I am sure we're much better in doing that than a few months ago..

best wishes