website showing expected moves in price

[theghost]

Hello all.
Does anyone know of a website(s) that show website show expected moves in price for economic releases?

IE, GBP/USD,, if there is a GDP figure due out, what historically was the average move of this (& the FTSE, DOW, etc etc)

Just wondering where you can see this knind of data rather than just go to an economic calander and get a list of daily releases that say LOW/MEDIUM/HIGH impact events,, without a table saying how much the main markets/indices/fx etc should move because of this.

Hope someone can point me in the right direction here.

Many thanks
TheGhost

 

[FXX]

I believe historical analysis of economic releases is available with tradethenews.com. That being said it is a waste of money because the context of releases in respect to the central bank, current economic conditions, business cycle, political, and current sentiment, will differ between releases. What you want is ultimately only available through research which includes analysing central bank policy, speeches, statements, and also includes economic data and finally through aggregating analyst commentary. I trade economic events exclusively if you are wondering about my experience with this.

 

[FXX]

One more thing to add. In terms of how much it will move. Nobody knows so the best approach is take what the market can give you by taking your que from the market

 

[theghost]

One more thing to add. In terms of how much it will move. Nobody knows so the best approach is take what the market can give you by taking your que from the market

Many thanks for your reply FXX,
Interesting.......
I have tried to look into this a bit.
I did come across bettertrader.co
Their website says;
"We produce real-time actionable insights based on market movements and economic events."
I downloaded a pdf of theirs which shows various aspects in how they achieve this, ie they have a "surprise range" in which they look back 10 mths and can see if it's more likely to be positive or negative surprise. It's not predicting if it will be pos or neg, but saying if it is more likely to be a negative surprise than a positive 1, then if the number that comes out is a positive 1, that number will be alot more 'sensitive' than a number that comes out on the negative side.

Also on attached image 2 I like the 'C' part, where they statistically back test data to say for example '5 out of 6 times the SPXUSD was on the uptrend in a similar situation.'

I think these types of stats can be useful.

I was wondering if there are any other websites that produce thinks similar to these?

Again, many thanks for your reply FXX, maybe the above might be interesting to you as well? Maybe not, but worth a mention.
Again, if anyone knows of anything similar, please reply, I'm all ears!!
Best regards
TheGhost

 

[FXX]

I would approach these sort of sites with great caution. You can't look at past releases to gauge the potential for future releases. There are too many factors that aren't considered with that approach and I wouldn't trust it to provide a accurate analysis of what to do. You will probably find a portion of these, much like technicals, will pan out but don't expect it to offer you the quality that an be realised through your own research.

 

[Nowler]

I recommend you focus on learning how to fish, as opposed to being given a fish.

Being given a fish is nice... you have a fish!
Knowing how to fish on the other hand, then you can go get your own fish without relying on someone else.

If you catch my drift.