WARNING: 90% Of Retail Traders Lose, What Are You Made Of? Are You A Shark?

dbphoenix

Legendary member
6,952 1,244
What I would like to know is how this 90% (or whatever the right figure is) compares with other business starts such restaurants or shops. I bet is pretty similar.
I don't know about Germany, but it's dissimilar in the US. If you're interested, the Small Business Administration maintains figures on this sort of thing.

Db
 

timsk

Legendary member
7,055 1,861
. . . And if one can't formulate a tactic that has a high enough probability of success over a series of trades, then he keeps at it until he does. At that point, fear is superfluous . . .
. . . Finding a method that works has absolutely zero relevance with dealing with fear for many people out there . . .
I think you both have valid points; one doesn't necessarily negate the other in my book. Having a well defined and tested trading plan will probably help to reduce fear and, in some cases, might even eradicate it completely. But not with everyone. I don't much care for flying and people telling me that the aircraft is built and serviced by experts and is statistically the safest form of transport etc., etc. has zero impact on my fear. I think the same can apply to some traders. For them, trading is akin to flying: no amount of preparation, study, logic or anything else will remove the fear that today's the day when they're going to lose their shirt and possibly a lot more besides. As we all know, it can and does happen - that's the risk we all take. The most recent example being the traders caught out in January 2015 when the Swiss National Bank removed the peg that held the Swiss franc at a fixed exchange rate with the Euro. Difficult to build an eventuality like that into a trading plan which may otherwise rock solid.
Tim.
 

dbphoenix

Legendary member
6,952 1,244
If "no amount of preparation, study, logic or anything else will remove the fear that today's the day when they're going to lose their shirt and possibly a lot more besides", then they need either to find something else to do or seek out a therapist. Some people hold this same fear with regard to putting their money in banks. Some people hold this same fear with regard to their jobs and pensions and retirement. Some people hold this same fear with regard to letting their children out of the house.

Their issue has much less to do with the object of their fear than it does with their attitudes and beliefs towards life.

As I pointed out in my article on fear. the basis of most of it is fear of the unknown (there are psychotic bases for fear which we needn't include here). The more one explores the unknown, rationally and objectively, the less basis there is for fear. A large part of this involves selecting the right market and the right instrument. The Swiss Bank January '15 situation may have been tense for some, but for those who trade US index futures it was hardly a blip.

The vast majority of fearful traders have never bothered to characterize their markets (largely because they don't know what that means) and therefore have never bothered to put together a trading plan. And most of those who have bothered to put together a trading plan have never taken the next steps to determine the probabilities that whatever actions their plans call for have a greater chance of success than failure (this is particularly true with regard to indicators and patterns).

Those who fail at trading "are looking for an easy, drop-a-penny-in- the-slot way of making money" (Wyckoff). That they soon become intimately familiar with fear should come as no surprise.

Db
 

TexasRangersFan

Active member
185 47
What I would like to know is how this 90% (or whatever the right figure is) compares with other business starts such restaurants or shops. I bet is pretty similar.
I don't know about Germany, but it's dissimilar in the US. If you're interested, the Small Business Administration maintains figures on this sort of thing.

Db


Restaurants have a 75 percent failure rate in the first year. I think those have the highest rate of failure of businesses. Laundry mats, liquor stores and jewelry stores have the highest rates of success if they can make it the first year.

That is based on what I remember from college.

But that is a good question, a good one if you consider that it could be a full time business.

I wonder what the Small Business Administration would think if I told them I wanted 1M bucks to start a trading fund........:D
 

foroom lluzers

Veteren member
3,611 135
What separates winners from losers is a robust trading plan and the discipline to follow it. The road to somewhere or other is paved with good intentions.
Insanity is repeating the same thing over and over again , this has been said repeatedly for over 50 years.

Who are the 5%?Why are they succesful?

Maybe they taught the wrong methods , systems and techniques or is this all due to trading psychology?

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/educational-resources/223210-succesful-trading-physical-gold-trader.html

How do the 5% trade?
 
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