Wait for it, wait for it


Active member
Wait till you see the whites of their eyes.
I want to conduct a poll. please vote.
Read the following very small passage from Frank Gretz, Market Analyst, Shields &

Then please place your vote
are we in Phase 1, 2, 3,

"They say investor sentiment goes through three phases.
The first,
which we've seen a lot of, is outright complacency.

The second,
and the one we seem in now, is concern. In the concern phase the news has turned bad, losses are mounting and investors are, well,concerned.

The third phase is the fear phase and it's in the fear
phase that bottoms are made,"

Please vote.
your replies

thx for replying so soon folks, keep them coming.
personally i fear we are in No 2 i would like us to be in No 3 but i don't see the panic and fear enough yet.
in my opinion we have passed phase 2. it seems that you only know what stage you were in once it has passed. There is a tendancy to see massive sell offs before the bulls move in, something we have not yet seen, impying 3 has not yet arrived. The overall trend must still be considered bearish, although a short term rally may be likely. What we want to see is a retracement that does not fall as low as the previous low- this would help prove that we have passed phase 3- assuming there are only 3 phases of course
Can you smell the fear......

Of trying to get in, not too miss the rally. Thats panic for you! Hey - I am happy, as I withdrew out of everything except ARM, and that is now making a small profit. Hope it continues.....

Which brings me back - how many times has this happened recently? So if you asked me on the weekend, I would have said 3. Now I fear we may still be in phase 2! People are still haven't learnt their lessons!

Be careful esp to any newbies.....this is prob a short retracement. Set any price targets, and be prepared to get out on reaching them (unless you can trade easily in the day) - thats what the people who have decided that a rise might be in order are doing! If this does not breakout, the fall may be at least as precipitous as the rise, with the danger of getting locked in. I don't see any good news to drive the rise, bearing in mind the afterdealing bad news in US last night. So this may well run out of fuel.

For me, I set ARM at max 480 allowing for retracement hitting upper channel line - what do others think - too optimistic/pessimistic?

All the best, enjoy the ride while you can

2 certainly gone...3 is so and so... :)
Greenspan might not let 3 to be experienced too harshly..

I'd say after today it could be (1) - here we go again after 2 positive Naz days (well 1 1/2 days) piling in to them tech stocks - remember 1st week in Sept and beginning of Jan - we thought we were on the road to recovery - and then profit warning after profit warning - Forgotten Already ?????

For Long Term investors selected stocks may be cheap right now. Day Traders had a field day today. Bloody marvellous - out today securing lucrative contract for my honest living and too frightened to leave any trade open and unattended.
Now thats fear!!

Watchout you T20 traders - don't forget to take a profit - it could all change overnight and then we are back in (3) territory.

I am reminded at this point of Uncle Johns post on the subject of 'Threes' and couldn't help thinking that's probably how he used to buy his condoms.

Good luck


Welcome aboard, Greg...Looking forward to read your posts..

I would say 2, but 3 is not far off. Once the man in the street says enough is enough, and sells out, the professionals who have mountains of cash waiting to go back in will take the shares off his hands cheaply. But I don't smell that fear yet, and I think we need to before this is over.

An interesting chart and point of view from Linda Bradford-Raschke's site :-

Hi Riz
Thanks for your welcome.I'm affraid I'm down in my 1st. year.(huh! what a year to learn in!). So if no-one minds I will just watch you all for the time being.
Good luck
No Problem, Greg...noone is going to mind...

As for being down on the 1st year, It's sad and I am sorry but if it's any consolation most of us experienced the same...let's just hope we can work harder, get over it and back to the profit soon as is the reason why we started this.

Good luck, mate..

just a quick thx

thx to you all for posting most interesting replies.