Volume has been steadily decreasing since 2009

jacknapier

Active member
157 2
Has anyone else noticed this? To me it could mean one of two things:

1) There's no support for this rally and it's destined to collapse hard.

2) There's big money out there that has yet to enter the market and when it does, we'll see a rally to put the late 1990s to shame.

I think you can find fundamentals that support both scenario's. I am just curious if anyone else has noticed this and what their thoughts are.

(See attachment for chart)
 

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random12345

Established member
793 280
Has anyone else noticed this? To me it could mean one of two things:

1) There's no support for this rally and it's destined to collapse hard.

2) There's big money out there that has yet to enter the market and when it does, we'll see a rally to put the late 1990s to shame.

I think you can find fundamentals that support both scenario's. I am just curious if anyone else has noticed this and what their thoughts are.

(See attachment for chart)

Around about the time of the Volcker Rule endorsement. Are you sure there's going to be big money out there? Many in IB originally saw this as the end of prop trading, though in amended form it isn't. It was however, another blow to a part of the industry that has been in decline for some time at IBs. Generally the prop money has been flying to hedge funds under the control of the sort of people who used to trade heavy volume in the transparent liquid markets known to retail traders, but not like for like as it previously appeared on IB balance sheets for that purpose.

Does not mean volume won't pick up again, but hard to see a major catalyst in sight for a while. Look what it took to move the Yen last year.

There used to be a lot of money in opaque OTC markets where banks knowingly fleeced their counterparties having direct access the book. Now there isn't. There used to be a lot of money in agency trading. Now there isn't. There used to be a lot of money in low latency or high frequency edges, now that industry is seeing contraction. There used to be a lot of money in fixed income products like MBS'. Woops. The list goes on.

You could say prop trading in general as a profit making industry is in one of the greatest crises it has experienced, one perhaps caused by fairness, transparency and the plateauing of technological edges.
 
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Hoggums

Senior member
2,176 878
If you look at the recent 7 year cycles 1993-2000, 2000-2007, now we are into 2007-2014 - could there be a crash coming up?
 
 
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