Volume analysis – The Key to the Truth

Petar Jacimovic

Active member
195 1
Sold the GBP/USD at the price of 1.4460. I rly. like price action after the news. I saw strong volume spike (buying climax) and later on few up-thrust bars. I see no upward pressure from professional money, which means that they are selling.

I marked letters on the chart and will go through explanation >

a - Massive volume spike (buying climax). Wide spread of the bar in an ultra high volume. Notice the close. Bar closed well of the high, which is a strong sign of weakness. If there is strong buying from professionals, the bar should close well of the high.

b - Up-thrust on the highest price. Supply overcame demand (another sign of weakness)

c - the Narrow spread of the bar in a low volume. Classic no demand bar or no buying pressure

d - Another Up-thrust bar in a high volume. Supply overcame demand.

Due to major weakness (buying climax) in the background my advice is to watch for selling on the weakness.

My fixed target is at the price of 1.4315. Of course, I may decide to exit manually depend on of the price action.

If you like my analysis, feel free to comment...

Best Regards,
Petar
 

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be-positive

Veteren member
4,969 488
Sold again at 1.4515. Again, buying climax and later on weak demand. The risk was about 15 pips and I am going for 80 pips target.

Best Regards,
Petar
petar, you will have to make your calls if you are going to make them lets say within a couple of mins of when taken ---- sorry my friend but hours after the event( as in your last example chart) is just a waste of time
 
M

member275544

0 0
petar, you will have to make your calls if you are going to make them lets say within a couple of mins of when taken ---- sorry my friend but hours after the event( as in your last example chart) is just a waste of time
you're potentially saying these could just be well picked examples...that hadn't actually crossed my mind but now that you say it yes its quite possible :LOL:
 

Petar Jacimovic

Active member
195 1
petar, you will have to make your calls if you are going to make them lets say within a couple of mins of when taken ---- sorry my friend but hours after the event( as in your last example chart) is just a waste of time
Hello there,
I posted 10 minutes after I took a position. You still got time to enter and you could take good pips there. Also, I don't give signals, I post my ideas and my thinking on specific pairs. I am a fullltime trader and I manage money so that is the priority. Anyway, I do my best to post as fast I can. I use 1M time frame usually when I pick setups so the setups will have delay, its impossible to post in the same minute when i take position.

I took on this selling 1:3 RRR or 1.5% return on the account. :clap:

Best Regards,
Petar
 

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Petar Jacimovic

Active member
195 1
Hello traders,
I bought GBP/USD at the price of 1.4366. I marked letters on the chart >

a - Volume spike (stopping volume). Wide spread bar in a ultra high volume, which closed in the middle. This is major sign of strength today. How the bar can close in the middle if there is a strong selling pressure. It must be that smart money bought into public selling.

b - Another high volume down bar but closed in the middle.

c - Tesing of supply in a high volume. Again, bar closed near the top.

Now, when we did volume analysis, we must find where this action happened. It happened around strong support cluster, which gives more value to our volume analysis.

Will try to take 1:3 RRR. TP around 1.4500

If you like analysis, feel free to comment >

Petar
 

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Petar Jacimovic

Active member
195 1
Hello traders,
I bought GBP/USD at the price of 1.4366. I marked letters on the chart >

a - Volume spike (stopping volume). Wide spread bar in a ultra high volume, which closed in the middle. This is major sign of strength today. How the bar can close in the middle if there is a strong selling pressure. It must be that smart money bought into public selling.

b - Another high volume down bar but closed in the middle.

c - Tesing of supply in a high volume. Again, bar closed near the top.

Now, when we did volume analysis, we must find where this action happened. It happened around strong support cluster, which gives more value to our volume analysis.

Will try to take 1:3 RRR. TP around 1.4500

If you like analysis, feel free to comment >

Petar
Not bad so far +45 pips :) Will try to take 140 pips or 1:4 RRR in this setup.

Best Regards,
Petar
 

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Petar Jacimovic

Active member
195 1
I did analysis on AUD/USD and I found solid setup there.I will post AUD/USDFX chart and futures chart. I marked letters on the chart and will go through explanation now >


a - Massive volume spike and wide spread of the bar, a classic buying climax. This buying climax happened because of RBA meeting minutes. The bar closed near the top, which was a sign that we may see another trying upward before sellers come in. Anyway, definitely a major sign of weakness, because the market doesn't like wide spread bars in an ultra high volume.

b - Another wide spread bar with high volume. I saw no buying pressure after this demand, I saw that this action caused the market to go sideways for a while.

c - a Successful test of resistance cluster and Up-thrust bar in a high volume. Up-thrust = supply overcoming demand.

c - Doji (Up-thrust). Another sign of weakness and another successful test of the cluster.

e and f - Narrow spread of the bar in a low volume. Classics no demand bars. Since we got massive sign of weakness in the background, no demand bars are very good setup trigers.

I also found trading range and classic signs of distribution phase by Wyckoff analysis. We got buying climax , which stopped price from going higher, automatic rally, ice, Up thrust, sign fo weakness.

Will try to take 1:3 RRR at least. Risk is around 30 pips. Targets set at 0.7200 - 0.7130.

Best Regards,
Petar
 

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Petar Jacimovic

Active member
195 1
I did analysis on AUD/USD and I found solid setup there.I will post AUD/USDFX chart and futures chart. I marked letters on the chart and will go through explanation now >


a - Massive volume spike and wide spread of the bar, a classic buying climax. This buying climax happened because of RBA meeting minutes. The bar closed near the top, which was a sign that we may see another trying upward before sellers come in. Anyway, definitely a major sign of weakness, because the market doesn't like wide spread bars in an ultra high volume.

b - Another wide spread bar with high volume. I saw no buying pressure after this demand, I saw that this action caused the market to go sideways for a while.

c - a Successful test of resistance cluster and Up-thrust bar in a high volume. Up-thrust = supply overcoming demand.

c - Doji (Up-thrust). Another sign of weakness and another successful test of the cluster.

e and f - Narrow spread of the bar in a low volume. Classics no demand bars. Since we got massive sign of weakness in the background, no demand bars are very good setup trigers.

I also found trading range and classic signs of distribution phase by Wyckoff analysis. We got buying climax , which stopped price from going higher, automatic rally, ice, Up thrust, sign fo weakness.

Will try to take 1:3 RRR at least. Risk is around 30 pips. Targets set at 0.7200 - 0.7130.

Best Regards,
Petar
Hello traders,
Took the lost 0.5% on this one but I opened buy position on USD/JPY at the price of 109.07. I marked letters on the chart and will go through explanation.

a - Wide spread of the bar in a very high volume but closed well of the low (Sign of strength). Potential stopping volume,

b - Lower spread of the bar but still high volume and the bar closed almost near the top. If there was strong selling, how the next bar can close near the top ? It must be that smart money started with buying.

c - Another supply bar in a high volume but bar again closed in the middle. Another sign of strength.

d - A narrow spread of the bar. The classic test of supply bar in a low volume. Good buy signal.

I am going for at least 1:3 RRR. TP around 110.65. Pay attention on level 109.65.

If you like my analysis, feel free to comment >

Petar
 

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Petar Jacimovic

Active member
195 1
Hello traders,
Took the lost 0.5% on this one but I opened buy position on USD/JPY at the price of 109.07. I marked letters on the chart and will go through explanation.

a - Wide spread of the bar in a very high volume but closed well of the low (Sign of strength). Potential stopping volume,

b - Lower spread of the bar but still high volume and the bar closed almost near the top. If there was strong selling, how the next bar can close near the top ? It must be that smart money started with buying.

c - Another supply bar in a high volume but bar again closed in the middle. Another sign of strength.

d - A narrow spread of the bar. The classic test of supply bar in a low volume. Good buy signal.

I am going for at least 1:3 RRR. TP around 110.65. Pay attention on level 109.65.

If you like my analysis, feel free to comment >

Petar
The price actually managed to go to my target but I closed in small lose due to news for JPY.
Anyway, I sold GBP/USD at the price of 1.4405 with SL around 20 pips. Will try to take 60 pips.

I sold due to the strong sign of weakness in the background and no demand bars later on. Even we got good news for GBP and
Average Earnings Index 3m/y
2.0% 1.7% 1.9%GBP
Claimant Count Change
-2.4K 4.0K 14.7K

Price action showed a strong sign of weakness today, which is a sign that GBP is not ready for buying and smart money selling today.
 

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be-positive

Veteren member
4,969 488
Thanks for latest charts, all the best with your target/s (why have you one chart @30 min and other 60 min ?? ) I think you need to show the time and price you entered the trade/s and dont forget your stop/s . You mentioned the other day that you were not a signal service ------ nobody is asking you to do this ??? ---- all we ask is you post up your trades within 30 mins of entry , as doing this I believe it would be fair on yourself and any member who cares to follow this thread.
 
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Petar Jacimovic

Active member
195 1
Hello traders,
I sold GBP/USD at the price of 1.4638.

a - Massive volume spike (buying climax). Notice where the bar closed. It closed in the middle. Weakness when it appears on the up bars, not on the down bars. This is a major sign of weakness after the news.

b - Another sign of weakness. High volume up bar but closed in the middle withing the range of the bars bar.

c - Bullish bar, almost like a doji in a volume lower than previous 2 bars. No buying pressure.

My advice is to sell on pullbacks. TP around 1.4563.
The risk in setup 1%.

Petar
 

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