Vey long term....

[ChartMan]

Does any one know how, or where I can find long term performance data? I'm thinking of 10-20 years time scale performance of ,say, the FTSE 100, FTSE 250, ie what £1000 invested in 1980 would be worth now?.
Secondly, does anyone have useful algorithms for such long term investment? I read once something along the lines of picking the top 5 dividend returners, and buying those companies and re-evaluating the performance on an annual basis.

 

[arty]

re your second point - on top yielding Co's - I thinbk this concept started in the US with the 'dogs of the dow' - buying the 5 or 10 highest yielding stocks and replacing them every year. I think the theory is that high yield is associated with well established Co's generally undervalued. I think this has been applied to the FTSE - didn't TMF do something similar?

A search on dogs of the dow may help.

 

[lakka]

For US historical data back to 1950 check
http://www.economagic.com/sp.htm

Lakka

 

[arty]

CM - a similar system for picking high yld stocks is / was a method by O'Higgins - try a search on O'Higgings + shares ..../ similar

 

[Weezydj]

Hi CM

The strategy you mention sounds rather like TMF's 'Beating the FTSE' strategy.

This takes a now very old fashioned index, the FTSE 30, as its base. (Sharescope will provide data for these shares, as will the FTSE site).

The thinking is that these stocks represent companies which have been around for years and are likely to be around for even more years, representing the heart of British industry, ie, they are unlikely to disappear overnight., and which rarely reduce dividend payments.

Having identified these 30 shares, find the top 10 in terms of current yield - which is said to identify the most currently undervalued stocks from this group.

Then, simply invest equally in the 5 cheapest of these shares for a year. Review at the end of the year and repeat the exercise (by keeping those still emeting the criteria and ditching the others to replace with new candidates).

(The Lite version is to select the 2 cheapest - and some suggest that it gets equally good results just picking the top 5/10 yielders regardless of price).

Currently the top 10 yielders of the FTSE30 are (with latest closing price):

SHP 403.8
RSA 292
P&O 279
TATE 368.5
LLOY 777
GKN 339
BOOT 718
PRU 687
BOC 1062
ICI 328.3


I think the principle is sound for a genuinely laid back LTBH approach, but my own feeling is that returns could be more efficient if this strategy were overlaid with whatever TA filters one normally applies else it can mean a long time waiting....waiting.... (though divis form part of the return, I know). TATE has been in this Top 10 Yields group for the last 2 years that I know of but is only now becoming an interesting subject for some. TATE has made significant gains in that time, true, but just look at RSA over the same period!

HTH

Weez

 

[Weezydj]

PS to previous post....


In case it wasn't clear - it's an important part of the strategy that all divis are reinvested at each annual review.

Weez

 

[ChartMan]

Just to add a little more input to this.....The reason for my asking is that I have in mind a longterm investment portfolio/trust for our grandchildren that requires minimum intervention and skill to maintain a fund that has above average growth over the next 15-20 years. Were I to pass on to the greay stockmarket in the sky, someone would have to maintain/manage it from simple instructions.
Thanks all for the input so far.