USDJPY weakness

[dptrader]

So the USDJPY is nearing that 75 mark where the BOJ stepped in with force last time. The fundamentals still point to a stronger yen, as do the technicals, and the pair is a month off the time that it took to break out of its previous trading range in June 2011. BOJ have stepped in at lower levels each time, hoping for natural support, but Japan's deflation just supports their ability to print an infinite amount of money to pay off their debts (unlike the US, which risks hyperinflation if it tried to implement the same policy). The full reasoning was here.

The Final Trade

A few traders I know are bullish, on the basis that Europe is containing its crisis, but depressed T-Note yields aren't signalling any slippage in demand for safe haven assets yet. I'd say short it until 75, and then take profits with any sharp falls, in anticipation of possible BOJ action.

Any thoughts anyone?

 

[STOZZA]

Hello
I am a newbie on here so hi to all.
I was also wondering about the USD JPY. I trade cfd's as a hobby, usually on the Aussie 200 or the Ftse, but with some hedging via forex / gold to help with any...erm mental things that happen from time to time!

Regards to USD JPY I hold a tiny position in the late 76's range which clearly it looks like it will be hammered in the next 24 / 48 hours. I'm going to take the risk (as the position is small) that the BOJ are going to get angry again if things get worse and step in - could get my fingers burnt but we shall see...

Keeping my eye on GBP NZD at the moment as the market appears to be choosing to price in some things and not others - what level would ppl be buyers of gbp vs nzd in this market (if at all)?

 

[YouAreNotFree]

I'm long the USD/JPY at 76.75 as a long term play. I will add more every time it goes down 100 points.

Make no mistake the BOJ will step in at these kind of levels. I've caught it the last couple of times with a short term trade and hope to do so again.

I heard that a Japanese government official suggested giving the BoJ a $600 Billion kitty to enter the currency war with. Go ahead I say.

 

[YouAreNotFree]

Double post.

 

[STOZZA]

I'm long the USD/JPY at 76.75 as a long term play. I will add more every time it goes down a 100 points.

Make no mistake the BOJ will step in at these kind of levels. I've caught it the last couple of times with a short term trade and hope to do so again.

I heard that a Japanese government official suggested giving the BoJ a $600 Billion kitty to enter the currency war with. Go ahead I say.

awesome that's what i needed some reassurance thanks!

 

[scose-no-doubt]

I'm long the USD/JPY at 76.75 as a long term play

:clap:

 

[YouAreNotFree]

:clap:

You don't agree?

 

[trader_dante]

I think you will get some offers coming in on any rallies into 76.90 but not sure how long they'll hold it. You might get a deeper retracement against last weeks sell off so I'm not convinced enough to short it here. I'll probably give it a go short on a break and retest of the 76.50 support, targeting the all time lows but I don't think its going to be an easy trade. The movement was ultra sluggish last time we traded here. May have been the BoJ sitting on the bid to slow the decline and absorb a lot of the offers. I'll definetly look for a flush through the all time lows to get long.

The real story right now is Eur/CHF if we are talking intervention but maybe that's for another thread

 

[scose-no-doubt]

No idea what it's gonna do but I know which side I'd want to be on

 

[STOZZA]

hmm come on boj do something lol

 

[YouAreNotFree]

''Japanese Finance Minister Azumi has said the domestic economy cannot overlook speculative moves in the FX market, and he will take decisive steps if necessary to intervene.''

 

[STOZZA]

''Japanese Finance Minister Azumi has said the domestic economy cannot overlook speculative moves in the FX market, and he will take decisive steps if necessary to intervene.''

I'm still in there waiting!

Anything starting with 75 and I'm in again like a rat up a drainpipe.

 

[YouAreNotFree]

I'm still in there waiting!

Anything starting with 75 and I'm in again like a rat up a drainpipe.

Make sure you only do what your own analysis tells you to. It's definately not a good idea to trade based on what others are doing

 

[STOZZA]

i'm still long...i think i can see 77 or 78 usd coming soon...

 

[YouAreNotFree]

Shorts increased 30% in the week to Tuesday.Think some of those have likely been unwound since.

 

[YouAreNotFree]

Japan Adopts Stealth Intervention as Yen Gains Hurt Growth - Businessweek

 

[YouAreNotFree]

''Japan's finance minister says Japan ready to intervene in JPY if needed''

 

[YouAreNotFree]

When asked about BoJ intervention ECB's Draghi said-

''Foreign exchange interventions should be multilateral if needed''

I wouldn't like to be a short if that comes to pass.

 

[YouAreNotFree]

''Japanese Finance Minister Azumi said his previous comments concerning JPY intervention were not specific to a certain level, but he has not changed stance on taking action against excessive and disorderly moves in the JPY.''

 

[YouAreNotFree]

Bank of Japan Sprays World With Surprising ¥10 Trillion Gift In Valentine's Day Liquidity | ZeroHedge