josephforex
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A couple of months ago I was subscribed to elliot wave online service.
According to the waves, 1.2500-1.3000 should of happen dec/jan.
If you look at the seasonal pricing history, USD/CAD has shown to go up oct/nov top feb/march and come back down again.
If I remeber it was around 1.1334 ? where the caculated the max% to the elliot wave. If it is less there will be the rush of a sell off. (Dont trade this information.)
I know that for the eight weeks during Sept/November elliot wave could not label waves without relabeling them, and suggested to stand aside and wait wave formation.
The last drop was over 200 pips and, if 1.1490 holds maybe we will see a retracement like last weeks.
All the waves I see are a mess, and if you see a megaphone chart like USD/CAD.
We all know it should go down.
Good luck
According to the waves, 1.2500-1.3000 should of happen dec/jan.
If you look at the seasonal pricing history, USD/CAD has shown to go up oct/nov top feb/march and come back down again.
If I remeber it was around 1.1334 ? where the caculated the max% to the elliot wave. If it is less there will be the rush of a sell off. (Dont trade this information.)
I know that for the eight weeks during Sept/November elliot wave could not label waves without relabeling them, and suggested to stand aside and wait wave formation.
The last drop was over 200 pips and, if 1.1490 holds maybe we will see a retracement like last weeks.
All the waves I see are a mess, and if you see a megaphone chart like USD/CAD.
We all know it should go down.
Good luck
mickandpete
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There are 2 important elements to affect CAD early next week
Federal election on Monday and BOC rate decision on tuesday
Both of these have High market moving potential
Federal election on Monday and BOC rate decision on tuesday
Both of these have High market moving potential
josephforex
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I agree these annoucements will make investors react with a big move.
I don't see 1.60-1.40 for sometime.
Investors seem to over look the governments looney problems this past year and is now focus on USD issues with oil.
Canada is colder but they had no major storms either.
I think a smart forex broker/investor saw the options placed last year and are singing at the bank right now for those 1.25+ options.
The chart I saw showed a correction from 1.60-1.40 to come down to 1.16/1.19 then up to 1.25/30 dec/jan. Then it should head to 1.00 or abouts. (No exact price on the month charts.)
I don't see 1.60-1.40 for sometime.
Investors seem to over look the governments looney problems this past year and is now focus on USD issues with oil.
Canada is colder but they had no major storms either.
I think a smart forex broker/investor saw the options placed last year and are singing at the bank right now for those 1.25+ options.
The chart I saw showed a correction from 1.60-1.40 to come down to 1.16/1.19 then up to 1.25/30 dec/jan. Then it should head to 1.00 or abouts. (No exact price on the month charts.)
josephforex
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If 1.1444 breaks look to 1.11??
Looking back this the next most recent low years ago.
This is one pair chart that will keep you guessing your guessing.
I would stand aside and hope to see a wave 3.
Then I would hop on for a short investment.
Looking back this the next most recent low years ago.
This is one pair chart that will keep you guessing your guessing.
I would stand aside and hope to see a wave 3.
Then I would hop on for a short investment.
As I Canadian living outside Canada, and as I trader, I have been watching the CAD closely over the past year. Technically it should break downwards because it is overprices. But, there is a market perception that CAD is a commodity currency (even though Canada's largest export is the automobile.) Provided commodity markets, especially oil, remain high the CAD should stay high relative to the USD. Besides, Canada has stronger macroeconomics than the US in terms of trade balances, deficits, and debt levels. These factors are fully reflected in the current price.
The recently-elected Conservative Government should be a neutral factor for the currency, at least over the medium-term. The new Prime Minister, Harper, is committed to balanced budgets. And he inherits a strong economic machine.
Two wild cards to watch are: Bloc Quebecois (Quebec separatist organization), and commodity prices. The Bloc Quebecois lost their last referendum on separation (or sovereignty, as they call it) by a slim margin. It is unlikely that Quebec will separate from Canada, but the treat of separation would put the Loonie into a nosedive, because the ramifications of separating this large central province from the rest of Canada would be messy, expensive, and very disruptive. On the topic of commodity prices, the housing slowdown could negatively impact lumber and copper prices. These are two big exports for Canada.
At the risk of dating myself, I can remember when the Loonie was trading at a premium over the US dollar. And the fundamentals were weaker back then.
Anyway, my two cents (Canadian cents), for what they are worth....
The recently-elected Conservative Government should be a neutral factor for the currency, at least over the medium-term. The new Prime Minister, Harper, is committed to balanced budgets. And he inherits a strong economic machine.
Two wild cards to watch are: Bloc Quebecois (Quebec separatist organization), and commodity prices. The Bloc Quebecois lost their last referendum on separation (or sovereignty, as they call it) by a slim margin. It is unlikely that Quebec will separate from Canada, but the treat of separation would put the Loonie into a nosedive, because the ramifications of separating this large central province from the rest of Canada would be messy, expensive, and very disruptive. On the topic of commodity prices, the housing slowdown could negatively impact lumber and copper prices. These are two big exports for Canada.
At the risk of dating myself, I can remember when the Loonie was trading at a premium over the US dollar. And the fundamentals were weaker back then.
Anyway, my two cents (Canadian cents), for what they are worth....
Last edited:
mickandpete
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One of the reasons why CAD is concidered a commodity /petro currency is the Oil Sands in Alberta
The crutial factor here being the high extraction/refinery costs at $30 a barrel
The implications of an oil price above $50 a barrel should not be ignored
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/canada.html
The crutial factor here being the high extraction/refinery costs at $30 a barrel
The implications of an oil price above $50 a barrel should not be ignored
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/canada.html
josephforex
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11490 gone
11452 bounced
if 11419 goes it should get go further south.
11410 is a good stop loss for longs
next week we should see 11605+ soon again if 11419 holds
11452 bounced
if 11419 goes it should get go further south.
11410 is a good stop loss for longs
next week we should see 11605+ soon again if 11419 holds
josephforex
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Bounced again at 11449
back to 11500-11493
If it stays above 11490
There may be a 50% retracement to 11600/05 next week
Lets see how 114460/75 holds out first
It would not surprise me if the elliot wave count at 11326? (cant remeber exact) is not in the eyes of forex brokers going for stop losses.
Paper trade this one.
back to 11500-11493
If it stays above 11490
There may be a 50% retracement to 11600/05 next week
Lets see how 114460/75 holds out first
It would not surprise me if the elliot wave count at 11326? (cant remeber exact) is not in the eyes of forex brokers going for stop losses.
Paper trade this one.
