DXY – Hovers Around 99.00 Ahead of FOMC
DXY trades around 99.00, hovering last week as markets await the FOMC meeting. August PPI came in stronger than expected, pushing September rate hike expectations to 71%. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.804%. RSI at 44 suggests downside pressure remains. The index is trading within a descending channel.
Key Levels:
- Support: 98.60 – 98.50
- Resistance: 99.14 (9-EMA) – 99.51 (34-EMA)
Outlook: Bearish, testing 98.60 support.
Gold – Hits $4,300 Low
Gold trades around $4,343/oz, falling for a third consecutive week. Pressure from Fed rate hike expectations and rising Treasury yields. However, prices remain above the 100-day SMA at $4,335. RSI at 47, neutral.
Key Levels:
- Support: 4,300 – 4,246
- Resistance: 4,443 – 4,462
Outlook: Range-bound, awaiting FOMC.
WTI Crude – Breaks Above $100
WTI trades around $96.50/barrel, having briefly broken above $100 for the first time since May 2026 amid escalating Middle East tensions. Houthis attacked Saudi oil infrastructure. The IEA cut its 2026 oil demand forecast.
Key Levels:
- Support: 90.00 – 87.73
- Resistance: 100.00 – 100.85
Outlook: Bullish, geopolitical risks.
USD/JPY – Falls to 153.80
USD/JPY trades around 153.80, falling for a second consecutive week. The BoJ is expected to hike rates next week. Japan's PPI rose 7.6%, reinforcing tightening expectations. RSI at 29, oversold.
Key Levels:
- Support: 153.00 – 152.50
- Resistance: 154.57 – 155.27
Outlook: Bearish, BoJ hawkish.
EUR/USD – Hovers Around 1.1588
EUR/USD trades around 1.1588, hovering after the ECB raised rates for the second time since the US-Iran war began. The ECB raised its inflation and growth forecasts. RSI at 50-55, neutral.
Key Levels:
- Support: 1.1566 – 1.1500
- Resistance: 1.1641 – 1.1711
Outlook: Neutral, awaiting FOMC.
GBP/USD – Recovers to 1.3510
GBP/USD trades around 1.3510, recovering after UK GDP rose 0.4% in July, beating expectations. Markets expect the BoE to hike four times by end-2027. RSI at 50, neutral.
Key Levels:
- Support: 1.3500 – 1.3478
- Resistance: 1.3517 – 1.3580
Outlook: Recovering, awaiting signals.
AUD/USD – Falls to 0.7160
AUD/USD trades around 0.7160, edging lower last week. A stronger USD on Fed rate hike expectations weighed on the pair. However, prices remain above the 50-day SMA at 0.7066. RSI near 68, approaching overbought.
Key Levels:
- Support: 0.7130 – 0.7066
- Resistance: 0.7200 – 0.7264
Outlook: Range-bound, awaiting data.
ASX200 – Falls for 4th Week to 8,741
ASX200 fell 0.9% to 8,741 points, a 7-week low. The index lost 3.0% last week, its fourth consecutive weekly decline. Pressure from high oil prices and rising bond yields. RSI at 39, weak.
Key Levels:
- Support: 8,700 – 8,600
- Resistance: 8,900 – 9,000
Outlook: Bearish, testing 8,700 support.
Dow Jones – Recovers 0.98%
Dow Jones rose 509 points (+0.98%) to 52,573, ending a four-day losing streak. Easing oil prices and markets having priced in much of the Fed hike expectations supported the rebound. However, this is only a technical recovery, not a confirmed reversal.
Key Levels:
- Support: 52,200 – 52,400
- Resistance: 53,000 – 53,500
Outlook: Technical recovery, awaiting FOMC.
Key Events This Week
- Wednesday (16/09): FOMC Rate Decision – Highlight of the week
- Thursday (17/09): BoJ Rate Decision – Expected 25bp hike
- Friday (18/09): UK Retail Sales (Aug) – UK retail data
- USD: Hovers around 99.00, awaiting FOMC
- Gold: Hits 4,300 low, range-bound
- Oil: Breaks $100 on Middle East tensions
- USD/JPY: Falls to 153.80, BoJ hawkish
- EUR/USD: Neutral, awaiting FOMC
- GBP/USD: Recovers on GDP
- AUD/USD: Falls to 0.7160
- ASX200: Falls for 4th week to 8,741
- Dow Jones: Technical recovery +0.98%
