Upcoming Event Risk discussion

[bbmac]

Event Risk: Uk Manuf and the wider Ind Prod numbers at 0930am London. These have fallen for the last 3mths and last month's -1,5/-1.7% respectively were particularly soft numbers. With ISM manuf and construct this month showing falls will these output numbers folow suit or buck the trend like this week's surprising rise in the ISM services bumber ? The greater probability will be for some knee-jerk (+) market pressure on the £ if numbers are soft. Conversely, like ISM we may see a rally (howsoever shortlived) if the numbers are strong. Uk Boe/Mpc later at 12noon London is really a non event in respect of the decision re rate, the very great probability is that there will be no change @ 0.5% and n/c too in the current £200billion Qe programme that was halted at that total some time ago, although if there is an accompanying statement (there isn't always) this may cause a reaction depending on how market reads it, (dovish = likely £ pressure, hawkish = likely £ rally [howsoever shortlived.]) Minutes of this meetinng later in the month will be eagerly awaited no doubt, for further clues.

Speaking of the Boe, it is not widely known but Merv the Swerv or Sir Merv of Swerv as we should now call him (for what do you get if you miss your target for 3years and preside over the biggest financial mess in 1/2 century + - that's right a knighthood !) anyways, Merv plays the banjo and is in a band called the Invincibles..he and his band like to play certain basement city wine bars after work and their signature tune is 'I wish I can shimmy like my Great Aunty Vera ' True -or- False ?

G/L

 

[YouAreNotFree]

Mervyn King is a prat.

My Grandparent's didn't save all their lives to be shafted in their twilight years by central bankers with flawed economic thinking.

 

[bbmac]

Uk Q2 GDP number

Stories in Uk press on Sunday of -0.2% print for Uk Q2 gdp (due later this month) with max expectations expresed / reported thereof of +0.1%...this would be very £ negative on the knee-jerk reaction if it proves to be so...particularly after 0 % growth in last 2 qtr's (ie -0.5% Q4 2010, +0.5% Q1 2011 = total 0%.)

Will be lookimg forward to it, and of course any positive print (+0.5% +?) could see a knee-jerk relief rally if £ remains bearish in the meantime.

G/L

 

[YouAreNotFree]

It's ok, Merv can just lower interest rates and print some more currency to make it all better. Oh wait, didn't we try that already?

I really will enjoy it if Q2 shows contraction. I'm sorry if people are struggling but the mess we find ourselves in is entirely of our own making and well deserved.

 

[bbmac]

That's the spirit !

G/L

It's ok, Merv can just lower interest rates and print some more currency to make it all better. Oh wait, didn't we try that already?

I really will enjoy it if Q2 shows contraction. I'm sorry if people are struggling but the mess we find ourselves in is entirely of our own making and well deserved.

 

[YouAreNotFree]

I do care, its just we must go through the short term pain (which is what the power's that be won't let us do atm) to get the long term gain.

 

[JRP2891]

I do care, its just we must go through the short term pain (which is what the power's that be won't let us do atm) to get the long term gain.

Couldn't agree more.

 

[counter_violent]

Less is more...this chap knew his onions.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warren_G._Harding

 

[Black Swan]

I'm sorry if people are struggling but the mess we find ourselves in is entirely of our own making and well deserved.

eh?

 

[bbmac]

Uk Q2 Gdp # -Tuesday 930am London

Tomorrow (Tuesday) sees the release of the much anticipated Uk Q2 GDP number. 0.2% the forecast consensus in a range -0.3% to +0.5%. So, notwithstanding any market impact from any U.s debt ceiling deal announcement, we could well see £ under pressure on the knee-jerk (+?) market reaction if the lower end of the forecast range occurs, particularly if a negative number. Conversely we could well see a relief rally on the knee-jerk (+?) if a good number of say +0.5% + Revisons to previous +0.5% might also play (do they do revisions or is 0.5% for Q1 the final # ? Can't remember,) but whatever, you get the idea.

Does Vince Cable know something with his comments re a possible QE2 ? (distanced by downing st this a.m) The Sunday Times and others think they do with a -0.2% trailed for last couple of editions.

However you decide to position for it - G/L

 

[bbmac]

Uk Chancellor George Osbourne has been defending Govt economic policy in general / defecit reduction plan in particular today. Govt will already have the Q2 Gdp #...would he be doing this today if it were a good number ? (due for release tomorrow,) Well, time will tell - draw your won conclusions -or- wait for the number.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Uk Q2 Gdp prelim

Rumours persist of a bad number....it has all the feel of a 'buy the rumour-sell the fact ' play ?

We'll know in less than 1hr.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

No Great surprise on the data then with +0.2% as forecast consensus, rumours were wrong...still not a great number as only +0.7% y/y and it means Uk economy has only grown +0.2% in 3 qtr's

Still enough for a relief rally in gbpusd -vs- the rumours and 'with current 1hr +trend.'

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Gbpusd data reaction

It was a classic news play 'sell the 1st hi-buy the 1st pullback' as gbpousd reacted with relief - not that +0.2% on Q2 was a good number particularly as only 0.2% growth in last 3 qtr's and +0.7% this year 2011 so far, but that it wasn't the rumoured contraction.

Ordinarily I would have bought the close of the 1min 0930am bullish thrust b/o data candle but it breeched the red wide dotted channel shown on 1min below which contains 999% of pa on this t/f so left it also because such a large reaction on only a +0.2% print seemed an obvious 'relief move' although it was with 1hr + uptrend. So I sold the 1st hi -- notice how CCi had hooked back into it's bol from an extreme by the time the entry candle opened (classic 'cci hook') and other 2 oscillators were at an extreme as that channel stayed breeched..

At the time of entry (the post data react Hi being at @ the underside of the breeched daily ascending trend line and 1st 1/2 of the previous 4hr/daily swing hi zone to 6542, mni had been talking about offers to 6420 ahead of the data react so with the same set-up developing on 3min and 5min and regular bearish divergence 15min-4hr it seemed a hi-probability trade to take.

The potential resistance at the post data react Hi is shown on the daily, ie that previous 4hr/daily swing hi to 6442 with underside of that previous ascending trend line.

As for the 'buy the 1st pullback' leg of the play, well I did not get a set-up at any pre-identified potential rbs..nearest was 3min but no hidden divergence on macd or cci - only osma...and no pre-identified potential rbs/support, only the breeched Daily R2.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Possible event risk: U.s default

How will markets react if U.s defaaults on August 2nd ? Anyone care to suggest re market/asset class both on the knee-jerk market react and longer term ?

Conversely what is likely effect of a deal ?

Interesting report from forexclub.com re their assessment...attached in a pdf doc

Also, how ill we know - ie if it does happen what will actually trigger it - will it be start of August 2nd Washington time or something ?

G/L

 

[bbmac]

U.s debt ceiling

Wonder whether the Democrats/Republicans will agree a comprimise re Debt ceiling in The U.s in time ? - actually I wonder whether the Republicans can even agree with their tea party faction ? Lol Reminds me of the labour Party in the 80's in the Uk with their 'militant tendancy' faction - and they expelled them. Lol


G/L

 

[bbmac]

U.s debt ceiling/defecit reduction deal

So, Deal done apparently although neither side likes it Lol ! keep an eye for those U.s House and Senate votes on the debt ceiling/defecit deal...if the bill goes down in either (more likely the House) we could see some action - lol ! Conversely we could see some even if deal is passed in both Senate and House.

G/L

 

[YouAreNotFree]

Boy this whole charade been pathetic.

 

[Tresa8]

Thanks for sharing information .
If you see any problem in future you prevent the problem to adopt any policy which save your business. It is best for your business.

 

[bbmac]

Uk Construction pmi

Uk Construction Pmi number on Friday due

Of the 3 Pmi's this is the least important, Services is most important (due next week) followed by Manufacturing (released earlier today) and of course the Construction Pmi due tomorrow (Friday.)

Strange knee-jerk reaction to the Manuf Pmi today in gbpusd, a 30 pip rise and despite attempts to go higher it just sold off for rest of the day. Seemed to be a knee-jerk 'could have been worse' maybe ? to the reading of 49 versus 49.1 previous, which is still below the magical 50 level and therefore considererd to be contractionary. Anyways, not a huge mover historically but you never know, like all data if a big deviation from previous and/or forecast it can cause a flutter.

The big one is later of course: U.s NFP etc, discussed here: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/general-trading-chat/95600-u-s-nfp-later-today-18.html starting at post #143.

G/L