United States Crude Oil Inventories April 7 2021


Junior member
What does the data mean to the market?

The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply which then affects the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price. There is other oil data released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond.

There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradeable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.

Historic Deviations and Their Outcome

March 31 2021 Not much of a deviation on this, but it seems Gasoline won the day!

See Chart here:

March 24 2021 Not much of a deviation, but Gasoline seems to have driven price action, and maybe API wasn't considered so much by the market this time?

See Chart here:

March 17 2021 Mildly positive overall from both lines, and OIL went down in a bumpy way. So as expected!

See Chart here:

My Forecasts For Today

DOE Crude Oil Inventories -1000
DOE Gasoline Inventories 0

Today's Trade Plan

If we get +-4000 from OIL and no conflicts from Gasoline, we can expect a sustained move from Crude OIl or Brent.

Note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following.

1) Official DOE Crude Forecast = -1416

2) API Actual Crude = -2618

3) Official DOE Gasoline Forecast = -2465

4) API Actual Gasoline = +4553

Tradeable Pairs


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

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So your main decision is being made only on Oil and RBOB inventory?
Yes my decision is being based on Gasoline and Oil. If both those lines deviate in the same direction I will take a trade. The other lines are not important!
Thanks, James