FxSpecialist
Newbie
- Messages
- 1
- Likes
- 0
UBS TRADING DESK Forex G10 outlooks and technical levels
https://fxspecialist.co/ubs-trading-desk-forex-outlooks-and-technical-levels/
“EURUSD has struggled to get above 1.1100, with the 200-day moving average just slightly above this at 1.1114. There were some dovish remarks from the ECB’s Coeure during early trading in Asia today and the market is eager to sell the pair. Look to sell around 1.1060/1.1080, with a stop above 1.1115, targeting a move below 1.1000.
USDJPY remains between 120.00 and 121.25 ahead of the BoJ meeting on Friday. We continue to see profit-taking and selling interest from locals above 121.00. Buy USDJPY at 119.80/120.00, with a stop at 119.50, for a move towards 121.00. Support at 119.83 and 119.41; resistance at 120.72 and 121.60.
EURJPY looks vulnerable with the weak euro, but we prefer buying dips below 132.50, targeting 133.50. Support at 132.67 and 131.80; resistance at 133.90, 134.26 and 134.81.
USDCHF and EURCHF are both quite supported. We think it is better to be long the pair, as the euro is still looking vulnerable. Buy USDCHF dips towards 0.9820/30 above the support at 0.9790/0.9800, which is where the breakout occurred earlier this week. There should be decent resistance around 0.99. EURCHF support at 1.0850 and 1.0820; resistance at 1.0900 and 1.0950.
Cable: The reaction to the lower-than-expected UK Q3 GDP figures yesterday was muted, with Cable trading in a 40-pip range and the range for EURGBP even narrower. There is not much data scheduled this week and the market seems to be waiting on the BoE next week. Add to GBPUSD longs below 1.5300 and sell EURGBP rallies to 0.7235/40. GBPUSD support at 1.5250 and 1.5201; resistance at 1.5358, 1.5377 and 1.5418. EURGBP support at 0.7192 and 0.7170; resistance at 0.7211 and 0.7251.
AUDUSD traded soft yesterday on the back of lower commodity prices and after the weaker-than-expected Q3 CPI today dropped to a low of 0.7112 from 0.7190. The market seemed to be caught wrong-footed and next week’s RBA meeting is being re-priced. We expect the pair to remain soft so sell rallies to 0.7170/0.7200, with a stop above 0.7275 where the short-term trend line comes in, targeting a test below 0.70. Support at 0.7100, 0.7050 and 0.6980; resistance at 0.7180, 0.7275 and 0.7380.
NZDUSD has been dragged lower along with AUDUSD and commodity prices and is testing the lower end of the 0.6700-0.6900 range. The market is waiting on the FOMC and RBNZ meetings and we wouldn’t chase a possible break out ahead of the rate decisions. Support at 0.6700, 0.6600 and 0.6500; resistance at 0.6825, 0.6900 and 0.7025.
USDCAD broke above 1.3200 yesterday as oil prices fell again, although interest was limited on the move. Look to take some profit on longs above 1.3300 ahead of the resistance at 1.3340 in order to buy again at better levels. Support at 1.3180/1.3200 and the key pivot on the downside remains 1.3040. Support at 1.3040, 1.3120 and 1.3200; resistance at 1.3340, 1.3460 and 1.3550.
UBS TRADING DESK Forex G10 outlooks and technical levels
EURNOK: Oil prices continued lower yesterday, fuelling a rally in EURNOK, which traded through the resistance from the past two weeks at 9.3150 and further on to 9.3659. Lower oil prices along with dovish remarks from the Norges Bank last week have increased expectations that the bank will cut the deposit rate at its meeting next week. Oil remains soft today and EURNOK looks set to head higher towards 9.4200/4300.
EURSEK: Strong Swedish consumer confidence data for October sent EURSEK to 9.3840 from 9.4000 yesterday, but the reaction seemed limited given the Riksbank rate decision today at 9:30am CET. Market consensus is for the repo rate to be left unchanged -0.350%, but given ECB President Draghi’s remarks last week, the expectations for a dovish tone and a further cut from the Riksbank have increased significantly. If there is no hint of a potential cut in December, EURSEK should test the monthly low of 9.2350 and possibly the major support at 9.2000. Resistance at 9.4550 and 9.5000.
https://fxspecialist.co/ubs-trading-desk-forex-outlooks-and-technical-levels/
“EURUSD has struggled to get above 1.1100, with the 200-day moving average just slightly above this at 1.1114. There were some dovish remarks from the ECB’s Coeure during early trading in Asia today and the market is eager to sell the pair. Look to sell around 1.1060/1.1080, with a stop above 1.1115, targeting a move below 1.1000.
USDJPY remains between 120.00 and 121.25 ahead of the BoJ meeting on Friday. We continue to see profit-taking and selling interest from locals above 121.00. Buy USDJPY at 119.80/120.00, with a stop at 119.50, for a move towards 121.00. Support at 119.83 and 119.41; resistance at 120.72 and 121.60.
EURJPY looks vulnerable with the weak euro, but we prefer buying dips below 132.50, targeting 133.50. Support at 132.67 and 131.80; resistance at 133.90, 134.26 and 134.81.
USDCHF and EURCHF are both quite supported. We think it is better to be long the pair, as the euro is still looking vulnerable. Buy USDCHF dips towards 0.9820/30 above the support at 0.9790/0.9800, which is where the breakout occurred earlier this week. There should be decent resistance around 0.99. EURCHF support at 1.0850 and 1.0820; resistance at 1.0900 and 1.0950.
Cable: The reaction to the lower-than-expected UK Q3 GDP figures yesterday was muted, with Cable trading in a 40-pip range and the range for EURGBP even narrower. There is not much data scheduled this week and the market seems to be waiting on the BoE next week. Add to GBPUSD longs below 1.5300 and sell EURGBP rallies to 0.7235/40. GBPUSD support at 1.5250 and 1.5201; resistance at 1.5358, 1.5377 and 1.5418. EURGBP support at 0.7192 and 0.7170; resistance at 0.7211 and 0.7251.
AUDUSD traded soft yesterday on the back of lower commodity prices and after the weaker-than-expected Q3 CPI today dropped to a low of 0.7112 from 0.7190. The market seemed to be caught wrong-footed and next week’s RBA meeting is being re-priced. We expect the pair to remain soft so sell rallies to 0.7170/0.7200, with a stop above 0.7275 where the short-term trend line comes in, targeting a test below 0.70. Support at 0.7100, 0.7050 and 0.6980; resistance at 0.7180, 0.7275 and 0.7380.
NZDUSD has been dragged lower along with AUDUSD and commodity prices and is testing the lower end of the 0.6700-0.6900 range. The market is waiting on the FOMC and RBNZ meetings and we wouldn’t chase a possible break out ahead of the rate decisions. Support at 0.6700, 0.6600 and 0.6500; resistance at 0.6825, 0.6900 and 0.7025.
USDCAD broke above 1.3200 yesterday as oil prices fell again, although interest was limited on the move. Look to take some profit on longs above 1.3300 ahead of the resistance at 1.3340 in order to buy again at better levels. Support at 1.3180/1.3200 and the key pivot on the downside remains 1.3040. Support at 1.3040, 1.3120 and 1.3200; resistance at 1.3340, 1.3460 and 1.3550.
UBS TRADING DESK Forex G10 outlooks and technical levels
EURNOK: Oil prices continued lower yesterday, fuelling a rally in EURNOK, which traded through the resistance from the past two weeks at 9.3150 and further on to 9.3659. Lower oil prices along with dovish remarks from the Norges Bank last week have increased expectations that the bank will cut the deposit rate at its meeting next week. Oil remains soft today and EURNOK looks set to head higher towards 9.4200/4300.
EURSEK: Strong Swedish consumer confidence data for October sent EURSEK to 9.3840 from 9.4000 yesterday, but the reaction seemed limited given the Riksbank rate decision today at 9:30am CET. Market consensus is for the repo rate to be left unchanged -0.350%, but given ECB President Draghi’s remarks last week, the expectations for a dovish tone and a further cut from the Riksbank have increased significantly. If there is no hint of a potential cut in December, EURSEK should test the monthly low of 9.2350 and possibly the major support at 9.2000. Resistance at 9.4550 and 9.5000.