Tweaking a trading system - How much data?

wino59

Active member
126 12
Okay here is the deal... I have a trading system I have been using the last month.

I am trading stocks on price action, usually hit or miss within 1 to 3 days.

So far 21 trades, 17 wins and 4 losses... 81% win percent.

I went back on the 4 losses, and if I would have double the exit number of shares, they all would have hit the target in the opposite direction.

So my question is how many trades do I consider it to be viable? So far I haven't played the "false breakouts" but if they keep hitting the opposite direction I think there is no reason not to start playing them.

I am just wondering how many of them I should track to get a hit percentage, before I start playing them. Right now the hit percent is 100%, but that is only on 4 trades, so I am wondering about the accuracy.

Thoughts?
 

ast4

Junior member
14 0
Okay here is the deal... I have a trading system I have been using the last month.

I am trading stocks on price action, usually hit or miss within 1 to 3 days.

So far 21 trades, 17 wins and 4 losses... 81% win percent.

I went back on the 4 losses, and if I would have double the exit number of shares, they all would have hit the target in the opposite direction.

So my question is how many trades do I consider it to be viable? So far I haven't played the "false breakouts" but if they keep hitting the opposite direction I think there is no reason not to start playing them.

I am just wondering how many of them I should track to get a hit percentage, before I start playing them. Right now the hit percent is 100%, but that is only on 4 trades, so I am wondering about the accuracy.

Thoughts?

Why don't you backtest against 10 years? Also stress test against major historical events (e.g. lehman, 9/11).

As a side note, win rate doesn't mean much without gain/loss per trade.
 
 
AdBlock Detected

We get it, advertisements are annoying!

But it's thanks to our sponsors that access to Trade2Win remains free for all. By viewing our ads you help us pay our bills, so please support the site and disable your AdBlocker.

I've Disabled AdBlock