Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 17 May 2019 - ADM ISI
08:28 (6 minutes ago)
- Very modest agenda to end the week, digesting poor Singapore Exports &
EU New Car Registrations, awaiting final Eurozone CPI and prov. US
Michigan Confidence and some Fed speak; focus on hardening of positions
on US/China trade tensions
In terms of scheduled data and events, the week ends with a rather damp squib. A smattering of BoJ and Fed speakers is accompanied by the overnight Singapore Exports (very weak, above all to Europe) and EU27 New Car Registrations (ostensibly starting to trough, though not expected to rebound sharply), with final Eurozone CPI and US Leading Indicators and prov. Michigan Confidence the only other items of any note. As such trade, security and political news are again likely to be the main drivers of today's price action, with a raft of Chinese state media comments overnight suggesting a more entrenched stand-off, which bodes poorly for risk assets, as well as the global economy. Specifically Taoran Notes, a WeChat account run by the China Economic Daily, said in a post late on Thursday that without sincerity there was no point in the US coming for talks and nothing to talk about, with this op-ed re-posted by the official People's Daily. Tomorrow will also see the Australian general election, which the opposition Labour party are expected to win, though only by a relatively small margin, and of course next Thursday and Sunday see the EU parliament elections.
Next week's G7 schedule is quite light on US data, featuring Durable Goods & Home Sales, but has 'flash' PMIs and plenty of other regular surveys, Japanese Trade and provisional Q1 GDP, the full gamut of UK inflation indicators and Retail Sales. On the event side of that equation there are also a flood of Fed, and ECB speakers, the May FOMC minutes and BoE testimony on the Q2 Inflation Report.