Trading with p/f

dentist007

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Mar 25, 2003
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#1
Well folks
now you have all learnt the p/f methodology...we must move further on and put up some trades.
These are going to be charts with POSSIBLE trade setups
we are breakout traders...nothing more
so..we are trading only the breakout..but we can get caught in traps,but..we will try like hell to avoid them
i will have no responsibility for anybodys trades
 

dentist007

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#2
first trade of the day
cable/gbpusd
short trade
from looking at the line chart first and then going to p/f.my own visual optimisation of the price action would have come from the 10 min data
this was to show the final push upwards/spike and then the consolidation,which then gave us a triple bottom sell..note that the green trend had just about been taken out
data was from 14 feb.ie 2days
we dont want to crowd the chart with too many trends and signals
box setting was 5pips by 2 reversal hilo plot
entry was at 1.6765
targets are always 5 box ish..
reason..you get 5 boxes..usually before market recoils,,so you dont want to hang around in the recoil




as mentioned on another thread...i got up too late to trade this setup..but in future..i will be posting potentiall trades..ie we want to identify the breakout point and get set up on the other side of the pattern..that keeps the stop tighter..but the reward is higher.it is a bit riskier to do this..if we are careful,then we wont get mugged too often
 

dentist007

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#4
spot oil..wti
hourly
dots are the close..less noise than a candlestick
when we see any chart..first thing to do is to divide the chart into bullish and bearish sections using trendlines


 

dentist007

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#6
so..from that we have the basis for a p/f chart
we have put in 7cent by 1 reversal p/f chart
why..
cos we wanted to replicate the line chart as far as possible..this gives us a starting point for the p/f box size and reversal
note we have not loaded up too much data....as all we want to see is the latest trends and do our analysis on that

 

dentist007

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#7
then..keeping the same box size and reversal
we go to the hilo plot of the data
note..that we have a multitude of interesting areas



yellow horizontals are res
aqua horizontal is supp
red..trend res
and green is trend supp as defined by the chart method of construction
so..going into next week...we have a good feel of where supp and res might lie
price is in an intermed downtrend with a recoil upwards..the lates green trendline
now..the $64,000 dollar question ??
does the downtrend resume or that minor uptrend gain momentum
 

dentist007

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#8
a quick look around other time input and box sizes to see if we can get more information
15 min time input
25 cents by 2 reversal
hilo plot


now we are at a prev supp area/purple horizontal and a double-top breakout

this area could be strong res
so we need to look at the other side of the pattern to look for clues if this breakout will fail
so..from this chart we have trend res/red and prev supp/purple
 

dentist007

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#9
the last chart
we have added the horizontal supp/yellow
and..
the aqua line...this is where the price action turns negative..ie a double-bottom pattern
the bulls can be in that area aswell
note laso prev breakout point/orange aswell as horizontal supp lower


 

dentist007

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#12
Dax cash index into next week
60 min data for the month of March
showing 2 trends
the uptrend that began on 14 march is coming up against horizontal res/purple
these are at 9600 and 9670 area
main supp area starts at breakout point/yellow horizontal at 9486 area
trend support/green in 9450 area
the second phase of the uptrend is green
so..now we have a fix on where supp and res might lie


 
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dentist007

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#13
so..we have mapped out the important areas from the 60 min data
in order to daytrade we want to take a closer look
the uptrend from 14 March had 2 moves with a wide consolidation.On any chart,if there is a wide consolidation,it is important to keep each trend separate.Especially with p/f as you will be 'curve fitting ' the box size and reversal to incorporate 2 separate trends which both have different volatility
so we look at the latest push upwards..as it is of short duration at this point we go down to 15 minute data..that trend started on 24 march



From this chart we can see trend supp..horizontal supp and of course we have those big horizontal res on the 60 min
depending on the news..price could break above those horiz res or possibly better is a bounce off and test supp...then we need to see the reaction/signals in supp
We dont want to waste our money on trading coaches/mentors,we just want to get in from 1/5 min signals and trade
 

dentist007

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#14
moving around box/reversal size,we can see where the trendline cluster/big supp should be if that uptrend gets tested approx 948 area
so now we have the horizontal res and the bigger supp area marked



looks to need to stay above 9500 to remain bullish
Thats it...i will be passing round a hat for donations...lol
 

dentist007

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#16
adding to the confusion...
dow in a reasonably strong supp area
4 hour data
dow futures 16170 area
the range is coiling

 

dentist007

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#17
spot oil 15 min
to me...this is usually the chart parameters to look for upcoming trades
10 cents by 1 reversal..close plot.Th e trigger will be from 1 minute data



The chart shows us the new downtrend from 1st July.we have isolated that trend and have displayed some relevant areas that could be tested next week.Price now in a range,,but could break lower.A break higher and we test the trend and horizontal res marked..104.20 area/If that breaks,then we can increase the reversal to 2 and get a new/higher res area,which will be the new area to target
a break lower and we will target 4-5 boxes before market recoils and then reassess
 
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dentist007

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#18
dax since Friday 30th October
trends shown




messy chart..could go either way
in prev res/breakout...could be supp..
or we head downwarc
we take the signals and keep in the back of our minds the levels
 

Pat494

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Mar 27, 2004
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#20
Nice looking charts.
Perhaps you could put in any trades and if they were profitable p&L