Trading with a view to join a prop firm

Brumby

Well-known member
May 25, 2012
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#77
Bitcoin is like gold marks in Weimar Germany, this could be as big. See chart attached,
It is simplistic to take a snapshot of history to make a point. Where is gold pricing today relative to the point?

I asked a similar question in another thread. and I will repeat it here. If you are trading Bitcoin, what is your trade plan in terms of exit be it to take profit or to protect your capital?
 
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DT

Active member
Sep 17, 2003
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#78
All I can do is continue learning...if that means being proved that I can't make money from spread betting forex, well then so be it.
but not being able to make money from spread betting doesn't necessarily mean you'd not be able to make money from trading futures (well if you're really bad then perhaps it isn't a good sign)

All I can do is keep looking for evidence. So far, I seem to be able to make money. My issue is stemming my losses.
this seems a bit confused/contradictory - you're able to make money but you've got an issue with your losses??? These are mutually exclusive things, you're either making money or you're not.


anyway another suggestion - various futures brokers will offer you a free trial - you could experiment with a sim for a few weeks yourself - that is essentially what you'd be doing if you joined an arcade

and as for the education/training side - if you're going for a DIY approach then stuff about economic releases and some basic technical analysis you can get pretty much everywhere (don't focus too much on the technical analysis stuff, especially if you start spread trading).

there are some videos on youtube that cover say spread trading for example (see below) - this trader has some basic introductory videos on his channel and quite an inexpensive e-book on amazon

there are also a few other videos out there also worth checking out the education section of the various exchange websites - Eurex, CME, ICE etc...

again, I'll chuck in the "pessimistic" warning that this sort of trading is pretty competitive these days and there are plenty of machines out there trading various spreads etc...


 

Nowler

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Sep 13, 2017
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#79
but not being able to make money from spread betting doesn't necessarily mean you'd not be able to make money from trading futures (well if you're really bad then perhaps it isn't a good sign)
True.
In your opinion, why might one fail at spread betting and perhaps not with Futures? Where's the key issue with the spread?



this seems a bit confused/contradictory - you're able to make money but you've got an issue with your losses??? These are mutually exclusive things, you're either making money or you're not.
I should have said that I am well able to win trades (42%)... my bad


anyway another suggestion - various futures brokers will offer you a free trial - you could experiment with a sim for a few weeks yourself - that is essentially what you'd be doing if you joined an arcade

and as for the education/training side - if you're going for a DIY approach then stuff about economic releases and some basic technical analysis you can get pretty much everywhere (don't focus too much on the technical analysis stuff, especially if you start spread trading).
Good suggestion.
I had done this with NinjaTrader but I never got around to trying it before I got an email saying that my data trail was up. I put my spread betting practice as priority because all of the Futures I have seen pretty much priced me out when it comes to a mini live account. At least with the spread betting I know that once i'm ready to deposit much more, I can for a manageable amount. But yes, I will practice on some trial/demo Futures accounts.

there are some videos on youtube that cover say spread trading for example (see below) - this trader has some basic introductory videos on his channel and quite an inexpensive e-book on amazon

there are also a few other videos out there also worth checking out the education section of the various exchange websites - Eurex, CME, ICE etc...

again, I'll chuck in the "pessimistic" warning that this sort of trading is pretty competitive these days and there are plenty of machines out there trading various spreads etc...

Thanks for the input and video links mate. I appreciate it.
I'm going to read something about Risk of Ruin now but I'll take a look at the videos after that. And the education section of the some exchange websites of course (y)
 

DT

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#80
True.
In your opinion, why might one fail at spread betting and perhaps not with Futures? Where's the key issue with the spread?
I was just trying to highlight that they're not the same thing... why might one person fail to get onto the rugby team but perhaps not fail to get on the football team etc..

sure the fat kid who is massively unfit may be useless at both though and the guy who blows up his spread betting account in a handful of trades is probably a very morbidly obese kid in this analogy

OK it isn't the best of analogies but the main thing is simply they're different - failing at one doesn't mean you'd necessarily fail at the other - the issue with the spread is the massive cost it adds - some successful series of futures trades might cause massive losses if you tried the same thing with an SB firm where you can't work a limit order to buy at the bid etc..

Good suggestion.
I had done this with NinjaTrader but I never got around to trying it before I got an email saying that my data trail was up. I put my spread betting practice as priority because all of the Futures I have seen pretty much priced me out when it comes to a mini live account. At least with the spread betting I know that once i'm ready to deposit much more, I can for a manageable amount. But yes, I will practice on some trial/demo Futures accounts.
that's a reasonable concern and frankly trying to trade futures on a shoestring budget isn't a good idea - thus why I suggested perhaps a small Betfair account might at least get you playing around with a limit order book (yup also not quite the same but you'll at least get to play around with a price ladder rather than just whacking up a chart and trading off two way quotes)

(if you're stuck for money then "matched betting" - basically abusing the signup offers at different bookies is/was an easy way to get some quick cash... I did it years ago when I was a student but apparently it is still feasible now, albeit probably less lucrative than back in the day - alternatively just wait until you have some disposable income to trade with)
 

Nowler

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Sep 13, 2017
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#81
I was just trying to highlight that they're not the same thing... why might one person fail to get onto the rugby team but perhaps not fail to get on the football team etc..

sure the fat kid who is massively unfit may be useless at both though and the guy who blows up his spread betting account in a handful of trades is probably a very morbidly obese kid in this analogy

OK it isn't the best of analogies but the main thing is simply they're different - failing at one doesn't mean you'd necessarily fail at the other - the issue with the spread is the massive cost it adds - some successful series of futures trades might cause massive losses if you tried the same thing with an SB firm where you can't work a limit order to buy at the bid etc..
Ok, I see your point.

I was thinking to myself that if I could do well, or even moderately well with spread betting then I would have an even better chance if I was to then move to Futures because of the absence of the pesky spread. To use an analogy myself, it would be akin to a fighter training with sandbags strapped to their arms and legs (spread betting) but then eventually have getting used to them, when they take the weights off (move to Futures), they are now much quicker and better able to perform.
I don't even mind paying a spread cost... it's when it widens/shortens that makes things difficult for me. I stumbled upon this current broker, so perhaps I should try one of the brokers with fixed spreads. I've seen some offer fixed on the major pairs. Though having no spreads at all would be awesome!



that's a reasonable concern and frankly trying to trade futures on a shoestring budget isn't a good idea - thus why I suggested perhaps a small Betfair account might at least get you playing around with a limit order book (yup also not quite the same but you'll at least get to play around with a price ladder rather than just whacking up a chart and trading off two way quotes)

(if you're stuck for money then "matched betting" - basically abusing the signup offers at different bookies is/was an easy way to get some quick cash... I did it years ago when I was a student but apparently it is still feasible now, albeit probably less lucrative than back in the day - alternatively just wait until you have some disposable income to trade with)
Yeah, I've accepted that I don't really have the capital to trade futures. I can still learn a lot about trading via spread betting, so a lot can still come from what I am doing now. One way or the other, I need to increase my capital size eventually if I am to even make a very modest income from this.

I still haven't opened up a Betfair account yet but I will as some point soon. The matched betting/signup offer abuse sounds interesting but I fear I have burned those bridges already as I used to play a game about a year ago and I earned in game currency for signing up to various bookies and placing a bet. Though at the rate new bookies seem to be popping up, I could very well have a fresh list of opportunities. Then again, I am warey of those sign up offers as I have seen many effectively ensure they you will get nothing because of the rules attached to availing of such signup bonuses. I have seen, I think it's bet365 make those availing of their bonus wager the bonus multiple times before money can be withdrawn.

I'll look more into it.
 

DT

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#84
I was thinking to myself that if I could do well, or even moderately well with spread betting then I would have an even better chance if I was to then move to Futures because of the absence of the pesky spread.
well yeah in terms of if you were to make some directional punt with a spread betting firm and then make the same directional punt using the actual underlying futures

but the thing with these trading arcades is they don't (unless they've drastically changed) just employ people to make the sorts of trades you'd perhaps make with a spread betting firm.. i.e. you'd mostly rule out overnight trades and you'd probably be expected to trade more frequently than would be feasible with your spread betting account. It certainly used to be the case that people were either scalpers or were trading spreads neither of which aren't going to be very feasible via a spread betting firm - ergo my point re: them being rather different.

also just as a completely subjective opinion I don't think you'd likely generate particularly consistent results just looking at some charts and taking some directional punt... then again if you are (or even if you're simply profitable) then who am I to argue
 

DT

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Sep 17, 2003
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#85
You've lost me guys.. Betfair? why? do you mean Tradefair?
I guess darktone's video illustrates this already but basically it was just a suggestion of a cheaper way to experiment with trading via a limit order book - currently he's trading via a chart and a two way quote with no insight into the underlying market microstructure
 

Nowler

Active member
Sep 13, 2017
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#86
well yeah in terms of if you were to make some directional punt with a spread betting firm and then make the same directional punt using the actual underlying futures

but the thing with these trading arcades is they don't (unless they've drastically changed) just employ people to make the sorts of trades you'd perhaps make with a spread betting firm.. i.e. you'd mostly rule out overnight trades and you'd probably be expected to trade more frequently than would be feasible with your spread betting account. It certainly used to be the case that people were either scalpers or were trading spreads neither of which aren't going to be very feasible via a spread betting firm - ergo my point re: them being rather different.

also just as a completely subjective opinion I don't think you'd likely generate particularly consistent results just looking at some charts and taking some directional punt... then again if you are (or even if you're simply profitable) then who am I to argue
Fair point, thanks.
Though I just want to point out that I don't just use charts to trade, I am listening/reading central bank releases also and taking onboard the analysis of analysts. Fundamentals to decide the direction and TA to locate my entry/exit. Or at least that what I'm trying to do anyway.

The more I think about it, I wouldn't like to be a manual HFT like that prop I applied for is.
I probably am HFT to some people but the amount I trade at the moment feels right to me.