Trading the OsMA

[Sobe]

Possible live trade setup EUR/USD

Here is the chart:



There's a possible BUY on the EUR/USD coming into the European session. We'll see what happens when they come on board in the next couple hours. Keep an eye on it!!

There's strong correlation in the majors right now, so pick your poison and go with it, don't double your risk.

 

[Sobe]

Results of EUR/USD trade

Here is the results from the above post on the trade setup on the EUR/USD. Here is the original chart:



The trade call was made at 0:00 EST at 1.2333. Here is the results:



Entry came just before the open of the European session at 1.2336 as noted on the image. We got strong Euro buying and made some quick pips. This one was like one of those plane rides that when the plane lands you kiss the ground, lots of TURBULENCE.

However, as usual I stuck with the trade plan, and you can see the two exits. The first at close of the first M30 to close back RED and the second at first H1 to close back RED. This came at 1.2381 and 1.2416, respectively.

Not bad, +45 and +80.

 

[kraven]

Sobe just spotted this thread. Well done, I like the comments on the charts, please try not to use initials like TF (it took me ages to figure out lol). Your system, although a little complex for me, seems to work for you. However I have noted on most of you chart trades you enter a few bars early on the 30m OsMA, you said when it crosses zero on an earlier post.

 

[Sobe]

Sobe just spotted this thread. Well done, I like the comments on the charts, please try not to use initials like TF (it took me ages to figure out lol). Your system, although a little complex for me, seems to work for you. However I have noted on most of you chart trades you enter a few bars early on the 30m OsMA, you said when it crosses zero on an earlier post.

Hi Kraven,

Thanks for the comments.

I certainly understand about the abbreviations, every trader has their own. I try not to use my own lingo too much, because it only makes sense to me .

But here is some common ones that all traders use:

TF=Time Frame
MTF=Multiple Time Frame
SL=Stop Loss
TP=Take Profit
BE=Break Even
TL=Trend Line
PP=Pivot Point
MA=Moving Average

I use lots of others in my trading journal that really only make sense to me, but this should help, not only on this thread but lots of others too.


In response to your other comment about entering early, yes, you are right. Again, I have been trading this way for many years and I can see things very clearly using my method. You are probably referencing one of the charts where I talked about entering on the cross of the Zero Line of M30. However, I also mentioned if I am already in I add another position. Throughout my posts I am trying to progress through my methodology instead of kind of dump it all at once. I apply a more advanced method of adding to ITM (in-the-money) positions. When I take losses it is almost always on one lot, and my winners are usually many lots. That is something else I will progress into during this thread.

Lastly, on that particular trade we had a TL bounce and divergence on M30, and I really like how that M30 entry candle formed with a long wick.

Just keep following along and it will come together!!

If you or anybody following along has questions or sees a trade and wants to know what I think, go ahead and post, and I will respond.

 

[Sobe]

The Euro Fundies

Let's take a timeout here from the technicals and talk about the fundies.

Here is a clear sign the Euro has lost its way:

Bloomberg 1
Bloomberg 2

This goes into effect in about 20 minutes at 18:00 EST today.

I referenced an article over the weekend where I said I thought it sounded like Trichet had panic in his voice, and to me this is confirmation, not that I really needed any.

Does anybody remember watching cartoons when you were a kid and one the characters was standing in front of a dam and a hole started to leak water, and they'd stick their finger in it. Then the water would pop another hole and they'd stick the other finger in it. Eventually you run out of fingers and bubble gum to plug the holes, and boom the dam busts open!!

Certainly, it is not quite this simple, lots of things could change worldwide, but the equivalent of the dam busting could be the EUR/USD at 1.0000.

Don't they know this regulation will not work.

 

[kraven]

This is typical of my luck Sobe. I was selling the Eur/Usd at 1.2415 this afternoon after a choppy day of trading. Left to pick up the kids from school so, as the market had been trading sideways with little direction or volume, i put a TP price of 1.2365. I forgot all about it when I returned. I've just logged on before bed to see it tank would have been close to +240 pips, instead i closed out for +50. Still I was in profit today and a profit is a profit, even if it's a small one.

 

[kraven]

Sobe I just set up your method on the Eur/Usd for tomorrow. How long have you used this method? Is this the only one you use? whats your average pip take? Cheers.

 

[Sobe]

Sobe I just set up your method on the Eur/Usd for tomorrow. How long have you used this method? Is this the only one you use? whats your average pip take? Cheers.

Hi Kraven,

First of all, 50 pips is nothing to shake a stick at!! Second, I hope you had a SL in place, it could have been a far different story when you got home. You could have been dealing with a (-240) pip loss!!

I've read many trading books over the years, some good, some bad. Then there's those moments that change your trading forever. One of those for me was when the author wrote, who is a famous trader himself, "amateurs look at a trade and think about how much they can win, professionals look at a trade and think about how much they can lose." :idea:

Well, my trading has been in development for 6+ years. The first two were a mess. Indicators, ea's, you name it. Then I read the story of the Turtle Traders. The creator of the Turtle method said, "I could put my strategy on the front page of the newspaper and still only 5% of people would make money." He made 100's of millions of dollars during his career and the Turtles have become very well known traders themselves. In short, I realized it is not the method, it is you!! Since then I developed all of my own trading methods and algorithms and to no surprise I became profitable.

I have been developing this method for about 4 years. No, it is not the only one I use. I have a few others. However, those are more swing/position trades. For instance, I have been short (still am) EUR/USD since last Tuesday using another strategy.

In regards to average win, it is hard to say. Different pairs trend harder than others. On the EUR/USD, anywhere from 30-150?? As I mentioned before, I'm more concerned with my losses than my wins, believe it or not.

BTW, nice trade (+50). If you look at my last chart I called it too. However, I thought it would just return to the TL. It broke and it broke hard. It was more than technicals though involved in that one.

 

[kraven]

Sobe I always trade with a tight SL. I learned that the hard way spreadbetting and trading in shares for many years, Forex is fairly new to me and I'm in the process of trying to find a trading style that suits me. At the moment I trade a 5 min chart (hence i can use a tight SL). As you can imagine it's ties you to the screen a bit. But it's working ok for me so far. Always willing to learn more about other styles though.
Which would you say was your most consistant currency pair?

 

[Sobe]

Sobe I always trade with a tight SL. I learned that the hard way spreadbetting and trading in shares for many years, Forex is fairly new to me and I'm in the process of trying to find a trading style that suits me. At the moment I trade a 5 min chart (hence i can use a tight SL). As you can imagine it's ties you to the screen a bit. But it's working ok for me so far. Always willing to learn more about other styles though.
Which would you say was your most consistant currency pair?

Again, another tough question. Although, I would say EUR/USD. I think most traders would say that. Due to its deep liquidity and smoother nature. However, my favorite pair to trade is the EUR/JPY. She's my mistress. :cheesy: Speaking of which....just caught some quick pips on her. Speaking of the EUR/JPY there's seems to be a strong support at 112.10. Take a look at the H1, there's quad dojis.

Well, Asia's RED. I'm sure Europe is gonna open down, and the US. I was reading an article that traders are predicting today could be one of the most volatile days ever, especially in the European bond market. We'll see how that translates to currencies.

 

[kraven]

Agree with the volatility. just watching the first 5min candle forming on the Eurusd

 

[kraven]

It was all over the place. on the gbpusd 1hr there's a nice long trendline from 1.504.

 

[Sobe]

Dealing with Confusion

Dealing with confusion and high volatility can be challenging.

First, you need to recognize it.
Second, you need to adjust.

You really have two options:

1. Lower your lots and extend your TF.
2. Hit the power button and go do something else.

 

[Sobe]

Understanding the Volatility

Starting to think of the week ahead:


Take a look at these Bloomberg articles.

Also, here is a good
Business Week Commentary

 

[Blaiserboy]

I will look forward to seeing some additional entries and comments. Thanks for your work in this thread.

 

[Sobe]

EUR/JPY Trade late in the US Session

Here is the setup:



I took a real early entry on this trade and the EUR/USD because of the resistance at 21-ema.

Anybody catch this one?

 

[rathcoole_exile]

Re: Here's how I use it

Here's how I set it up:

M30 Chart.

OsMA MTF=M30 (0)
OsMA MTF=H1 (60)
OsMA MTF=H4 (240)

55 EMA=Blue Line
21 EMA=Red Line

Here's how it looks:

what's the point in having 3 indicators ? do you have to match them up like the 3 ducks, all of them have to negative or positive in order to signal a trade ?
In which case, in the example shown, you would have missed most of the action as the 4 hour didn't cross below the line until almost the end of the PA, just as the lower TF indicators were crossing UP !

if you don't have to line them all up simultaneously, what's the point in cluttering your chart with superfluous junk ?

 

[rathcoole_exile]

here is some common ones that all traders use:

TF=Time Frame
MTF=Multiple Time Frame
SL=Stop Loss
TP=Take Profit
BE=Break Even
TL=Trend Line
PP=Pivot Point
MA=Moving Average

you forgot one important one:
DHN= DyckHeadNewbies
who blame YOU when THEY can't understand one of the most widely used acronyms in trading !!!!

 

[Sobe]

Re: Here's how I use it

what's the point in having 3 indicators ? do you have to match them up like the 3 ducks, all of them have to negative or positive in order to signal a trade ?
In which case, in the example shown, you would have missed most of the action as the 4 hour didn't cross below the line until almost the end of the PA, just as the lower TF indicators were crossing UP !

if you don't have to line them all up simultaneously, what's the point in cluttering your chart with superfluous junk ?

Hi Rathcoole_exile,

Thanks for the question.

No, is the simple answer to your question. In trading the M30, H1, and H4 charts, I use the H4 as the trend. Whether it is above or below the Zero Line is irrelevant to me. It is whether it is increasing or decreasing. Then I am looking for pullbacks in the prevailing H4 trend. I prefer to have pullbacks on the M30 and H1 OsMA above the Zero Line. Then, when I see them start to turn down, or PA indicates to me it has reached resistance (MAs, pivots, fib levels, resistance level, TL, divergence, etc..) I enter.

Here is a trade I am still in from my last post:



As far as having three of the same indicators on the same chart, I generally don't look at a pair this way, and agree it is a bit of overkill. I personally call it my (1-charter), meaning I can quickly look at it and assess what I feel is happening. Trust me, and I'm sure you'd agree, one indicator and two moving averages is hardly what I would call superfluous. Have you ever seen some of the screen shots that have been posted?

 

[Sobe]

Keeping an eye on the EUR/USD

Here's what I'm seeing on the EUR/USD H4: