Today market outlook

[Zerologic]

GBPUSD at the market opening there was a gap down which was visible in the H1 timeframe, usually, the price will close the gap in the same week. Last week the GBPUSD price trend increased significantly since July 2

Recently, the US was shocked by the news that the Trump campaign team experienced a shooting incident that caused Trump's right ear to bleed and killed a spectator. The shooter was shot dead by the Secret Service.

Today investors will focus on economic news. The New York Manufacturing Index which surveys 200 New York state manufacturers to measure the relative level of general business conditions, a value above 0.0 indicates the economy is improving, and below 0.0 indicates worsening economic conditions. Actual data greater than the forecast could be good for USD. Furthermore. Next Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Economic Club of Washington DC also attracted investors' attention in the hope that audience questions might get hawkish or dovish answers regarding interest rate policy.

 

[Zerologic]

USDCAD ahead of inflation data tries to continue the rise. Yesterday USDCAD drew a long body bullish candlestick with a slightly long shadow at the bottom of the candle and a short shadow at the top of the candle. The price crossed the middle band line from the downside reflecting a strong uptrend.

Referring to price history, USDCAD has been trading in the low range of 1.35894 to a high of 1.37909 since May 12. Sees the W1 candlestick shape, for five weeks USDCAD closed with a bearish candlestick even though the price moved in a range.

Earlier this week USDCAD tried to rise drawing a bullish candlestick, but investors may be anticipating today's important news CPI Canada and US retail sales.

According to Forexfactory data, Canada's CPI is expected to be 0.1% from the previous data revision of 0.6%, while the medium CPI year after year is expected to be 2.7% from the previous revision of 2.8%. If the actual data is greater than the forecast, good for CAD.

Prices are predicted to be more volatile today because apart from the Canadian CPI data, US retail sales data excluding automobiles will also be released, which is forecast 0.1% from the previous revision of -0.1%, and retail sales to measure a change in the total value of sales at the retail level is predicted to be -0.3% from previous data revision 0.1%.

 

[Zerologic]

Yesterday Gold hit a new all-time high of $2469. Gold prices rallied strongly and formed a long bullish candle with almost no shadow reflecting a strong upward trend.

Even though gold prices fell because US retail sales data was higher than expectations, this seemed only temporary and was a stepping stone for gold to soar higher.

As the long-awaited retail sales data showed the actual value at 0.4% from the estimated 0.1%, this reflects an increase in purchasing power so that market confidence in the Fed's interest rate cut increased. According to the CME's FedWatch Tool, the odds of a 25 basis point (bp) rate cut are 93.3%.

Apart from that, the political situation in the US ahead of the election became a matter of public concern after Trump was shot. If the situation worsens it might have a good impact on gold because investors are worried about preferring gold as a safe-haven asset.

Today there are no important economic schedules worth paying attention to regarding gold and USD. The high price of gold technically allows for a retracement, but if global demand becomes stronger, gold can continue bullishly

 

[Zerologic]

AUDUSD prices tend to be flat ahead of Australian employment data. AUDUSD prices yesterday drew a smallish bearish candlestick with a longer wick at the top of the candle.
Yesterday's highest price was 0.67543 and the lowest was 0.67206. The price is now consolidating near the middle band line.

Today there is an important economic schedule related to the Australian Dollar and US Dollar regarding employment data.

According to Forexfactory Australia employment data, Employment Change last month was 39.7K and expected at 19.9K. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate last month was 4.0% and is expected to increase to 4.1%. Meanwhile, according to US jobs data, last month's Unemployment Rate was 222k and is expected to increase by 229k.

In the H4, Prices move between the middle and lower bands, consolidating within the range of high 0.67543 and low 0.673234. Bollinger bands draw a slight descending channel with wide band spacing indicating a downtrend with high volatility.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 70 and VB Low shows a value of 36, indicating high market volatility.

The Market Base Line points to level 53 drawing a descending channel indicating that although the trend is decreasing, the weight of bullishness is greater than bearish

The RSI Price Line pointing to level 40 indicates the price is below the downtrend level and closer to the oversold zone.

The Trade Signal Line pointing to level 43 crosses RPL from the downside, there is an indication of trend reversal.

 

[Zerologic]

EURUSD drew a bearish candle yesterday amid mixed US economic data.

EURUSD's price yesterday formed a high of 1.09404 and a low of 1.08932. The price draws a bearish long body candle with almost no shadow. Visually the price goes back to near the previous low.

Yesterday's US economic data showed mixed data, on the one hand, Unemployment claims pushed the USD lower, on the other hand, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index pushed the USD stronger. Meanwhile, European economic data Main Refinancing Rate shows unchanged data remaining at 4.25%.

President Christine Lagarde told the conference that domestic inflation remains high and wages are increasing at a high rate. He also highlighted wages, profits, and geopolitical factors as potential rising inflation risks.

The EURUSD moving average since June 26 has started drawing lower highs reflecting the bullish sentiment started to dominate the market. This bullish sentiment successfully crossed the middle band and MA line from the downside.

Expanding Bollinger bands reflect high volatility. Even though bullish sentiment dominates, the 100 MA draws a flat channel far below the price

.

 

[Zerologic]

Traders' expectations for gold to climb higher again failed on Friday, with gold prices plummeting after spotting a reversal pattern.

Gold eventually drops after record ATH, and is wary of psychological support. Last Friday, gold prices fell sharply to a low of $2393 from an open of $2444, a high of $2445 and a close of $2400.

US data on Friday showed initial jobless claims released higher than expected, 243k vs 230k, while the manufacturing index from the Philadelphia Fed rose higher to 13.9 from the previous 1.3.

From a geopolitical risk perspective, tensions that threaten regional war are increasingly widespread after Yemen's Houthis were responsible for military attacks on Israel, and received retaliatory attacks from Israel. These risks support gold as a safe-haven asset, but there is a decline in physical buying in Asia which may weigh on the yellow metal's rise.

On the other hand, Austan Goolsbee, President of the Chicago Fed, added that Fed officials welcomed progress in cooling inflation. Goolsbee said it was clear that inflation had fallen in the last 12-18 months and considered this the fastest inflation rate ever.

Today's focus, there is no important economic data from the economic schedule related to USD. However, traders still need to follow market developments even though gold price movements are expected to stop or consolidate because there are no important news releases today.

 

[Zerologic]

The decline in Silver prices loosened near the lower band line. After last week Silver declined for 4 consecutive days, in last Monday's trading the price sought balance near the lower band line.

Silver draws almost an indecision candle like a Doji with short wicks on the top and bottom of the candle. The decline in silver prices may be due to declining Chinese demand due to the economic slowdown.

Besides that, yesterday there was no important news that caught traders' attention, which allows traders to wait for the next important event.

Joe Biden's exit from the 2024 election is hot news in the US which could change the American political map.

Today there are no important economic schedules from the economic calendar according to Forexfactory.

 

[Zerologic]

EURUSD fell drawing a long body bearish candlestick yesterday. It continued last week's decline after a lull on Monday.

The disinflation process in the Eurozone is quite encouraging, allowing the ECB to lower interest rates in September. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said September was a much more comfortable month to decide than July.

EURUSD price yesterday formed a high of 1.08962, and a low of 1.08434, there was only a small shadow on the top and bottom of the candle.

Today investors will probably focus on inflation data. PMI data from Germany and France which may influence the value of the Euro.

French Flash Manufacturing PMI data is expected to be 45.8 from the previous 45.4. Meanwhile, the German Flash Manufacturing PMI is expected to be 44.1 from the previous 43.5.

 

[Zerologic]

USDJPY extends losses further on hawkish sentiment surrounding BoJ's policy stance ahead of next week's meeting.

Japan's Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 in July from 50.0. On the other hand, the Services PMI jumped to 53.9 from 49.4 previously.

The US manufacturing PMI also contracted, amounting to 49.5 from the previous 51.6, missing expectations of 51.7. Meanwhile, the services PMI rose to 56.0 from the previous 55.3, slightly higher than expectations of 51.7.

Even though the economic data for Japan and the US are somewhat similar, it seems that the difference in the higher Japanese services PMI data has contributed to the strengthening of the JPY.

Apart from these reasons, anticipation of the BoJ raising interest rates at its policy meeting next week, prompted short-sellers to exit their positions and support the JPY.

Meanwhile, the USD is challenged by the possibility of the Fed reducing interest rates next September. CME Group's FedWatch Tool data shows an increase in the probability value of 93.6% for the Fed's interest rate cut by 25 basis points at the September meeting.

Today investors are focused on the release of GDP news and US unemployment claims that could impact USD and all financial markets including the USDJPY pair.

 

[Zerologic]

USDCAD extended its advance reaching a high price level of 1.38478 before rebounding near 1.38224. USDCAD's bullish sentiment started in mid-July and still shows a strong rally until now.

Yesterday the Bank of Canada (BoC) again reduced interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.50%, this is the same as the analyst's expectations of 4.50% from the previous 4.75%. Further rate cuts are likely according to Commerzbank FX strategists.

According to Commerzbank FX strategist Michael Pfister, CAD will still be under pressure until the end of the year, because lowering interest rates will only provide a pause in profits in the real economic sector.

On the other hand, the strong US GDP is another reason that pressures CAD to weaken further. In the GDP Advanced report the US economic data grew at a high rate of 2.8%, double the previous release's 1.4%. Previously, economists predicted GDP growth of 2.0%. On the other hand, US Unemployment Claims data also fell by 235k from the previous 245k, further supporting the strengthening of the USD, previously economists predicted Unemployment Claims of 237K.

Today investors will focus on US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data or CPI, which is the Fed's most preferred tool for considering interest rate policy. Data for June showed the PCE value was 0.1% in line with economists' expectations.

Economists predict that PCE will rise 0.2% from the previous 0.1%, if the actual data is greater than forecast, it usually has a good impact on the USD.

 

[Zerologic]

Gold shows gains at the start of the market opening.

The forex market started to be active today, gold market opening has risen marked by a bullish candlestick on the M15 timeframe since the market opening. A long candlestick with almost no shadow reflects an increase in gold prices with quite high volatility.

The price of gold on Friday last week tried to rebound after previously falling to a low of 2352, gold's rebound succeeded in bringing it to a high level of 2402 at the time of writing.

Core PCE Index data on Friday showed the actual value of 0.2%, the same as analysts predicted from the previous revision of only 0.1%. The core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.6% in the same period, matching the gain in May but above market expectations of 2.5%.

According to the FedWatch tool, the probability that the target rate at the July 31 Fed Meeting will increase is 95.9%. The Fed's interest rate cut could encourage gold as a safe-haven asset because it does not provide returns.

On the other hand, Chinese data from the People's Bank of China (PBoC) cut its benchmark interest rate from 3.45% to 3.35% and lowered the five-year loan interest rate from 3.95% to 3.85%. China's economic data is considered important because this country is the world's largest gold importer.

Today there is no important news on the economic calendar, perhaps market changes will be more natural without high-impact news

 

[Zerologic]

EURUSD slide extends nearly three weeks of decline. EURUSD price hit a low of 1.08023 ahead of Eurozone inflation data and Fed policy.

Looking at price history backward, the decline in EURUSD started July 17 and there is still potential to extend the decline.

This month the Fed predicted to hold interest rates unchanged, a cut is expected at the end of this year around September.

The Federal Funds Rate will be released Thursday, predicted to be unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50%. Therefore, investors will focus on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's monetary policy statement and press conference to get fresh clues on rate cuts.

Today's important economic data in the European zone, German CPI is forecast to rise 0.3% from the previous revision of 0.1%. French flash GDP is forecast unchanged at 0.2% as per previous revision data.

Meanwhile, in today's US economic data, CB Consumer Confidence is expected to fall by 99.7 from the previous revision of 100.4. Meanwhile, new job openings are predicted to fall by 8.02 M from the previous revision of 8.14 M.

 

[Zerologic]

Gold and Silver surged ahead of the Fed funds rate.

Gold prices jumped yesterday from a low of 2376 to a high of 2412, this drew a long-body bullish candlestick with a small shadow at the bottom of the candle. On the other hand, Silver rose from a low of 27,621 to a high of 28,406, drawing a long-body bull candle with a small shadow at the bottom of the candle.

US economic data released yesterday showed CB consumer confidence greater than expected at 100.3 from a forecast of 99.7 with previously revised data of 97.8. Meanwhile, new job openings were 8.18M, greater than the expected 8.02M with revised previous data of 8.23 M. Even though this data supports the strengthening of gold, it seems that the market will see the Fed's potential in the future.

In this week's trading, several high-impact news that are of concern to traders include the Fed funds rate, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, inflation data, and NFP.

In terms of geopolitical risks, the Israeli government has emphasized that it wants to retaliate against Hezbollah for the rocket attack that killed 12 people at the weekend, but they wants to avoid a regional war in the Middle East. This has eased market concerns.

Today the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data will be released which is predicted to fall by 147k from the previous data revision of 150k. This data measures changes in the number of people employed in the previous month, excluding agricultural and government industries.

Next, the FED will release monetary policy, which is predicted to keep interest rates unchanged at 5.50%.

The CME Group's Fed Watch tool forecasts a 95% chance that the Fed will hold interest rates on Wednesday and a 100% chance that rate cuts will begin in September.

 

[Zerologic]

Gold soared amid US economic data.

Yesterday gold prices extended their gains amid mixed US economic data. The price of gold rises drawing a body bull's candle with a slight shadow on the top and bottom of the candle. The bullish candlestick formed a low of 2403 and a high of 2450.

Data released yesterday, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, showed that the actual data was 122k, smaller than the forecast of 147k with the previous revision being 155k. There is a difference between the actual data and the forecast of 25k, and this shows an unfavorable value for the USD. ADP (Automatic Data Processing, Inc.) is economic data that measures the estimated change in the number of workers in the previous month, excluding the agricultural and government industries.

Meanwhile, the Employment Cost Index data shows that the actual data is 0.9% smaller than the expected 1.0% from the previous data revision of 1.2%. This economic data is considered important because It is a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when companies pay more for labor, the higher costs are usually passed on to consumers.

In other economic data, Chicago PMI showed actual data of 45.2, slightly greater than the expected 44.8 with the previous data revision of 47.4.

Pending Home Sales data shows actual data of 4.8% greater than expected 1.4% with previous data revision of -1.9%. This data measures changes in the number of contract homes that will be sold but are still waiting for the transaction to close.

Meanwhile, the Fed still left interest rates unchanged at 5.50%, even though Powell said he would cut interest rates once this year, predicted in September. According to the FedWatch tool from CME, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September rose to 90.5%.

Today investors are still waiting for other inflation data, Unemployment Claims, and Manufacturing PMI.

 

[Zerologic]

AUDUSD continues to fall amid the Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 5.50%.

AUDUSD draws a long body bearish candlestick with small shadows on the top and bottom of the candle. Price formed a high of 0.65595 and a low of 0.64883.

Yesterday's US economic data saw the Fed keep interest rates unchanged at 5.50%, although the Fed may cut interest rates at the end of the year.

While unemployment claims increased by 249k from the previous 235k, analysts expected 136k, much less than expected meaning less good for USD.

Manufacturing PMI data was mixed, Final Manufacturing PMI 49.6 was slightly higher than the previous 49.5, still indicating contraction. ISM Manufacturing PMI 46.8 was lower than the previous 48.5, less supportive of USD strengthening>

ISM Manufacturing PMI showed 52.9 slightly higher than the previous 52.1, there was an increase in prices paid on goods and services.

The decline in AUDUSD was also influenced by the PBoC's recent rate cut weakening the Chinese yuan, which harmed the Australian dollar due to Australia's economic relations with China

The RBA is also expected to maintain interest rates at 4.35% at its upcoming meeting as recently published inflation figures in Australia have reduced the likelihood of further tightening.

Today investors will focus on NFP data which is forecast at 176k with previous data revised to 206k. And the Unemployment rate data is predicted to be 4.1% from the previous revision of 4.1% too.

 

[Zerologic]

USDCHF extends losses due to increased demand for safe-haven currencies.

Last week, USDCHF drew a long body bearish candlestick indicating a sharp decline extending the previous decline. USDHF has tended to move downwards since May, reflecting increased demand for the Swiss Frank currency, which is one of the safe-haven currencies.

On D1 last week at market close, USDCHF formed a bearish long-body candle reflecting strong bearishness.

USD/CHF continued its losing streak after the release of Swiss Consumer Price Index data on Friday which showed an increase of 1.3% in line with expectations for consistency in July.

CPI data also matched expectations, falling -0.2% from the previous 0.0%.

On the other hand, US economic data which weakened the USD also encouraged strengthening the Franc Swiss. The NFP data was 114k which was much smaller than the expected 176k with the previous revision of 179k. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate data was 4.3%, up from the expected 4.1% from the previous revision of 4.1%.

Today the market is focusing on ISM Services PMI data which is expected to rise to 51.4 from the previous revision of 48.8.

 

[Zerologic]

Profit-taking brought gold down to $2364.

After the previous day, gold drew an indecision candle where the price formed a small body bearish candlestick with long shadows on the top and bottom of the candle. However, yesterday the price of gold fell sharply from a high of $2458 to a low of $2364.

However, this profit-taking action met resistance from buyers so the price drew a long body bearish candlestick and a long shadow at the bottom of the candle.

Yesterday US economic data, ISM Services PMI showed a value of 51.4 somewhat higher than the expected 51.1 with the previous data revision of 48.8. This economic data is one of the drivers for the USD to strengthen.

Gold should take support from widespread geopolitical risks in the Middle East, where attacks on Israel are now besieged on several fronts by Iran, Yemen, and Lebanon. Reportedly, Israel's ally, America, asked Jordan for permission to use its airspace to prevent attacks by Israel's enemies.

However, the gold price phenomenon is quite interesting, because there are other factors that investors consider.

China, which is the largest importer of gold, is also experiencing a vulnerable phase due to poor domestic demand. Caixin Manufacturing PMI surprisingly contracted in July to 49.8.

Meanwhile, slowing US economic growth has also triggered market changes. The July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed that labor demand slowed significantly. The Unemployment Rate jumped to 4.3% versus expectations and the previous release of 4.1%.

However, according to the Fedwatch tool, there is a decline in confidence that the Fed will cut interest rates. This tool estimates the Fed rate in bps 475-500 at the level of 73.5% while the estimate of 500-525 is only 26.5%. The Fed will probably cut interest rates in September, which is predicted to be a reduction of 50 bps.

 

[Zerologic]

AUDUSD gets some RBA interest rate support.

Yesterday AUDUSD drew a bullish candlestick with rather long shadows on the top and bottom candles which indicates the market is fluctuating. The price formed a high at 0.065412 and a low at 0.64717, opening at 0.64955 and closing at 0.65191.

Previously, AUDUSD price volatility showed the price dropping to the August 5th low of 0.63485 and depicted a Pin bar pattern indicating that in a bearish market, there is buyer pressure trying to take over the market direction.

At its meeting yesterday, the RBA still maintained interest rates at 4.35% for the seventh time today. Markets don't seem to be responding as much to RBA interest rates as expected. Australia's still high inflation is the reason RBA Governor Bullock maintains high interest rates.

The RBA projects inflation will not be within its 1-3% target range in the second quarter and expects an increase to 3.8%. A potentially restrictive RBA could support AUDUSD in the long term compared to the Fed possibly cutting interest rates at the end of the year which is expected to do so in September.

Further, the RBA Governor sees the decline in stocks due to a weak reaction to the US employment report on Friday and fears of a recession in the US. The Australian dollar staggered, falling as much as 2.4%, and tried to recover on Tuesday.

There is currently no major impact news on the economic calendar, but investors may focus on RBA Assistant Governor (Economy) Sarah Hunter for a potential hawkish or dovish stance. Big impact news on New Zealand's employment and unemployment data may have an impact on NZD despite its slight correlation with the Australian dollar.

 

[Zerologic]

NZDUSD gains amid supportive New Zealand job data economic news.

NZDUSD price extended its increase yesterday drawing a long-body bullish candlestick with a rather long shadow on the top candle. The price reached a new high of 0.60245 on the support of New Zealand jobs data.

Yesterday, the release of Employment Change data showed a value of 0.4%, higher than expected -0.2% with the previous data revision of -0.3%. This change in the number of workers provides an indication of an increase in job creation, which is a leading economic indicator that reflects the majority of the entire economy.

On the other hand, the data released for the Unemployment Rate was 4.6% compared to the expected 4.7% with a revision of the previous data of 4.4%. Even though it is down compared to previous data, it is higher than analyst predictions. The number of unemployed is an important signal of overall economic health that correlates with consumer spending, although it is a lagging economic indicator.

These two economic indicators include high-impact news and yesterday NZDUSD formed a low of 0.50458 and a high of 0.60245 closing at a bullish candle at 0.59923. NZDUSD had fallen on August 5 at a low of 0.58493 but the whipsaw brought the price up to a close by drawing a bearish candlestick with a long wick small body. After that, prices tend to extend their increase.

Today the economic data that investors may pay attention to is Inflation Expectations, the previous data showed 2.33%. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand expects that the inflation target in the future will materialize into real inflation, so this could be related to interest rate policy.

 

[Zerologic]

Gold surged amid better US jobless claims data.

An interesting event happened with gold yesterday. After gradating since gold's sharp decline on August 5, gold prices are back to soar after successfully crossing $2400.

Gold price drew a long-body bullish candlestick with almost no shadow forming a high of $2427 and a low of $2378.

According to analysts, this precious metal soared because encouraging data from the United States (US) provided relief to financial markets, thereby weighing on demand for the US Dollar.

US jobless claims data showed actual data of 233k from the expected 241k with a revision of previous data of 250k. Decreasing unemployment claims indicates overall economic improvement.

With improving economic conditions enabling the inflation target to be achieved so that the public confidence index rises, the Fed will cut interest rates in September.

Meanwhile, geopolitical risks still support gold as a safe-haven asset.

Next, investors will focus on Fed officials who allow dovish or hawkish statements.

Today there is no important economic schedule related to USD, but there is news that may have a high impact on CAD regarding job data.