Time to short the Dow?

Skimbleshanks

1
2,325 16
Great strategy sandpiper!

If you remember that the retail investors ALWAYS get stuffed by the big boys, then you can time your market exit to perfection. :cheesy:

Actually, one of the best indicators is when every London black cabbie and every housewife is going for the company flotations hoping to make a killing. Those are the best ones, closely followed by the TV programmes.
 

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
TradeSmart and others. In case you haven't figured out why your reversal went wrong at 432...... There was a major target of 411 derived from the ND top to the middle triangle. Secondly, the PD at 432 did NOT meet the minimum time requirement of 25 mins ( 15 mins) for a bottom. At the very least, you need to wait for a higher high, or a higher low, preferably both... It's great to see so many cracking the tops and bottoms with high precision. Who needs L2.... We know where the tops and bottoms will be 15 mins before they get there! :cheesy:
Take the bottom.... 1st low 19:50... 2nd low 20:03 ( and the bells start ringing) 3rd low 20:19 and out at 20:20.
Same for the ND top- 41 minutes on each side,giving a target out time of 16:00 exactly.
I wonder how far into the 20:21 5 min bar the dark siders took to get out? :cheesy:
 

tradesmart

Experienced member
1,286 22
Thanks CM - I'm getting it right most times now, but sometimes my impatience is my undoing and my New Years resolution must be to wait for that 'confirmation' higher low/high (and have a stopwatch running for the timing! :cheesy: )

Regards
 

mombasa

Established member
561 1
CM, Not sure what u mean by the major target bit - which bit of TA does that come from, ? Can u pls explain?

TS, re the PD u went long on, I think that I might have closed too, just in case, but wouldn't have gone long 'cos it didn't look like it had 'deep' peaks and troughs.
 

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
From the top ND to the middle of the day triangle forms the pole. Subtract this from the end of the triangle and you get ( roughly) the target of 411. Of course, you only get it after the triangle starts it's journey to the downside, or should that be the darkside?
 

mombasa

Established member
561 1
Beats me if I can see a big triangle from the ND to the mid tri - ah well, better get my eyes tested.

Actually, on the 5 ans 10 min charts, I think I can see a bull flag - obviously failed, but If i'd been trading 5/10 min I'd have gone long.

Anybody else concur?
 

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Skimbleshanks

1
2,325 16
mombasa:

Something you may not have noticed - there was a 5-wave Elliott going up into that consolidation (which you've marked as a bull flag), so that would have been a good reason to exit a long towards the top.
 

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mombasa

Established member
561 1
aha - thx Skim - a dbl top too - guess those two things outweighed the bull flag.

Guess I'd better start reading up on elliot wave bascs too - have always stayed away from it 'cos it was too complicated and most 'experts' seemed to retrofit .......

cheers
 

Skimbleshanks

1
2,325 16
I posted the only things I believe you need to know about Elliotts on the 'No Indicators' Revisited thread - the only one I look out for is the 5-wave up/down because it is simple to see.
 

a320

Established member
689 8
Mom if you want the ratio's.. read some of my post on the no indicators thread..they all relate to elliott... mainly the 161.8 ect..

CJ
 

tradesmart

Experienced member
1,286 22
Well, doesn't look like a short to me so far today - have closed one long at 10500 (taken just after midnight at 10440 when the futs opened) - will be looking for another long for the evening session (unless things go pear shaped! ;) )

The current consolidation around 10475 looks to have a target of 10550 ish to me!?

The 60min chart shows that we appear to be into a channel slope change with an expanding range - will be interested to see ChartMans comments on this....
 

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mombasa

Established member
561 1
TS - looks like a bull flag to me too - question is when to go long - my fingers are getting twitchy !
 

tradesmart

Experienced member
1,286 22
Mom, yes, it looks very bullflagish to me also - I'll wait and see what happens a bit later - it's generally after 19.00 (when they're all back from lunch US east coast time!) that the evening move happens.....

mind you, it seems to be attacking 10500 again now - the bulls can't wait!?! :eek:
 

mombasa

Established member
561 1
yeh - i figured i'd stay ut till after US lunch :) Was gonna go long at '72, around the time of my first post but ........

looks like 500 is going now, albeit slowly. Waitin for confirmation bounce etc - don't want it turning into a dbl top do we ...
 
 
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