thus and TWT...

[Riz]

Many of us lost on those two separately (thus & telewest(twt)...now it is likely that a merger of them could be on the agenda according to reuters... does minus and minus makes plus? Hope so..since I still hold both as an example of my 2 dumbest trades...

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain's second biggest cable company Telewest is considering a merger with struggling telecoms group Thus, the Sunday Business newspaper said.

The newspaper said that while no talks were in progress, Telewest Chief Executive Adam Singer was impressed with Thus's strong franchise among businesses and sees a link as an option once the stock market had stabilised.

It said Telewest would seek an all-share takeover of Thus, in which Scottish Power holds just over 50 percent.

Thus's share price has struggled during the past year on disappointing results and by investors turning away from the previously in-demand telecoms sector.

The group, which has underperformed its sector by almost 80 percent in the past year, closed at 53 pence on Friday, valuing it at around 374 million pounds

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[y2k]

Hi Riz......Lets hope something positive happens.Thus is my dumest trade too. I however still think Energis will take Thus, however they've stated that they wouldnt overpay.

(

 

[shelman]

Remember that day in the chatroom, y2k, when you said you were going to put your certificates in a box and dump em mid atlantic and i suggested a merger with TWT and we could kill two birds with one stone?
I was only kidding...honest!
Steve

 

[Aaln1]

I have just returned from across the pond. I was strongly tempted before Xmas to dump thus and buy SGC. Still I wouldn't have the pleasure of standing next to Riz and saying "This was my dumbest buy" (second to DUC actually). Cheers

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[Riz]

Hi Alan,

The pleasure is mine of course..I've always enjoyed watching butterflies..

Thus up +5.5 (10%) to 60.5 today..TWT flat -0.5 to 107...

Meantime Credit Suisse First Boston analyst Paul Moran said he does not dismiss the speculation out of hand but thinks the deal structure could thwart any link-up...saying Scottish Power owns 50.1% of Thus and is not likely to accept an all-share offer given that Scottish Power is seeking to fund its international strategy..but he noted that if a deal does materialise, Telewest stands to gain from getting its hands on Demon, Thus's respected internet service provider. It would also increase Telewest's scale and bring on board Thus's greater capability in value added services and web-hosting...

This is getting more and more interesting for me...just hoping that SCO -my 3rd dumbest trade- also doesn't join them...by the way why did they (sco) shoot up by 16% today? Need to find out..

 

[shelman]

Riz, everytime you slag off a share they seem to go up the next day...can you praise Corus for me i'm still waiting to get back in.
Steve

 

[Riz]

Hi Steve,

Only if you promise not to get out too soon as you did last time while I was pumping positive news...

rizgar

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[shelman]

At 500 quid a point i just had to take the profit...at the time my bottle just went, it looked like reversing.Missed a lot more but after all a profit is.........
Steve

Time for my medicine.
cu am

 

[Riz]

TWT went up 10.5 (8.7%) today to 131.5 ...while thus was down -1.5 (-2.4%) to 62...
Merger or no merger TWT is certainly going somewhere gaining about 30% in 2 trading days...

 

[shelman]

Riz
Right again (TWT)
Only another 30p for me to be even...but they are still going before April 6
Steve

 

[Riz]

Hi Steve,

As I said in the trading room, no need to worry as long as they hold over 140..and it's not a long distance to your entry point from there as I'd be in great profit by then

good luck

rizgar

 

[shelman]

Feel a little more optimistic on TWT after todays trading, looks like a bit of smart money is slowly creeping in.
Steve

 

[Riz]

Agree, Steve...regarding TWT..positive news still coming

The Times, UK. p30 (26/01/01) The UK's two largest cable companies, Telewest<TWT.L> and ntl <NLI.N>, have ruled out a merger but said on Wednesday they had begun talks about possible collaboration with a view to cutting costs. This could cover areas such as joint purchasing of set-top boxes and an advertising campaign for digital cable. The two could also agree a joint approach on regulatory affairs. Barclay Knapp, chief executive of ntl, said the company's acquisition spree was over and it would now focus on running the business: with an expected cash surplus of 400 million stg in 2001-02 it has enough money to complete its plans. It is aiming for 1.25 million subscribers by the end of the year.

Morgan Stanley expects a cost-cutting joint venture between NTL and TELEWEST to be announced soon.
http://www.citywire.co.uk/alert/default.asp?vid=23004

Telewest looks for set-top back-up:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/et?ac=00...3Qe&atmo=tttttttd&pg=/et/01/1/26/cntel26.html

As for THUS, next week is crucial and it doesn't look bad..read from ukinvest:

There should be more news on whether Thus will be invaded by predators. Recent reports suggested that it may be taken over by Telewest (TWT). But Scottish Power (SPW) which has a large holding in Thus is likely to block any such takeover. Speaking of Scottish Power, it reports third-quarter results on Thursday and will try to reassure investors concerned about its exposure to rising power costs -- not to mention the £1m a day its closed power station in Utah.


The day's big numbers come from telecoms company Thus (THUS). It is expected to announce that losses are continuing to narrow. Schroder Salomon Smith Barney is forecasting that sales rose 12.4% to £283m, with losses per share falling from 9.9p to 2.4p. It is forecasting pretax losses of £15m, a fall of 5.3%.

Thus bounced 10% recently on reports that Telewest (TWT) might be thinking of making a bid. But many believe Scottish Power (SPW), which has a large holding in Thus, would block a takeover unless it was at a substantial premium.

I know you're still holding..very good luck..

rizgar

 

[Riz]

TWT went up +5(3.5%) to 146 today indicating once more that it deserved to be watched closely...ever since TWT started its recent uptrend at 101 in the beg. of Jan. it's forming higher highs and higher lows..chart looks quite bullish with 5 day EMA over 10 which is also over 20 all heading up..price on top sharply heading up towards the upper BB which is also heading up...telling me that TWT has not yet finished its current uptrend...I hope it's telling the same to Steve too

rizgar

[Edited by rizgar on 30-01-2001 at 12:58 AM]

 

[Riz]

Here we go..still up..

Thus +12.5 (20.2%) 74.5 after saying turnover for the three months to December 31 rose 12% from the previous quarter to £59.9m...and sales 26% to £43.4m...thus giving decent numbers to the city..

"Our transition to a national, business focused telecommunications services company is now largely complete. We are beginning to see the scale effects from corporate contracts for data and telecoms, Internet and contact centre services announced earlier this year." said Chief executive William Allan...

Also the market speculation that Thus may be a bid target for TWT hasn't died down yet...

TWT itself carried on with its uptrend non-stop +6(4.1%) to 152...breaking all resistance levels on its way..what I make of the charts is that if TWT hold around this level or doesn't fall below 135 support level (which is highly unlikely) next resistance level will be 165-170 and hitting 190 level where the price was right before it was plummeted is quite possible...

rizgar

 

[Riz]

Both certainly going in the right direction: thus up 0.75 (1.0%) to 75.25 while TWT got 9(5.9%) to 161..in the meantime Morgan Stanley Dean Witter set a 160p share price target for TWT and rated the stock an “accumulate”... interesting enough TWT did cross over their target just on the day...chart suggests TWT is in the overbought area with price hitting the upper BB..with BBs themselves sharply heading up...apart from a general negative market sentiment I think TWT will carry on with its journey up, there is still more for recovery..a retracement might occur however as the charts also suggests...I am still holding both shares...

rizgar

 

[shelman]

I owe you one, on TWT Riz, i now have a very tight stop at the first pullback.
THUS is slightly different but i will still close at the first -ve sign.
Cheers

Steve

 

[Uncle]

That's the way to do it you devil you........take what you can this time!!!!

 

[Riz]

hehe...don't worry John..he never turns his back to profit...

rizgar

 

[Riz]

TWT tipped by Investor's Week

thus eased up after last bounce..-0.75 to 74.75
while TWT started making new gains after last retracement..+3.25 to 147.25...in the mean time TWT was tipped by Investor's Week:

"Buy" Telewest (TWT - news). The digital cable television and Internet service provider has been one of the best performers in the last two months. It has a growing customer base that at the end of 2000 was 377,664, and is expected to push 500,000 by the end of march. Recommended in November at 120p and still a "buy" at 158p.

(no financial advice intended)

rizgar