downbytheriver7
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ukhero said:
My small long managed to get stopped out by those wonderous folk who drop the price to trigger your stop only to take the market straight back up, same on my NDX long, amazes me when the price my stop went at did not even register as the low of the day! Infact the price my stop went at was about 3-5 pts under the supposed low of the day quoted by them themselves, typical, and even more annoying to see that the longs would have given me a nice gain this am!
Not had this happen for a while, very frustrating but we all know how it goes....
Anyway I am remaining flat for now but might be tempted at a small long on the NDX and small short on the FTSE. Cheers all.
The FTSE, Thursday 3rd Aug 2006
Wednesday's results:
Close:5932, up 51pts [0.87%]
Range: 5932 - 5880.
Last 5 TD: up 0.95%.
OTM: 0.07%.
DOW
11199, up 74pts [0.67%].
Last 5 TD: up 0.88%.
OTM: 0.13%
S&P 500
1278.55, up 7.63pts [0.60%].
Last 5 TD: up 0.81%.
OTM: 0.15%.
News items of note:
It's that time of year again:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/efcbb110-22...age=8672feb4-504a-11da-bbd7-0000779e2340.html
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Wednesdays were unclear. Thursdays charts are again distorted due to the abnormal late rise.
The PoM System: +0.25, interpretation: favours the minor rise.
The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.
Companies reporting:
Barclays [follower of this company. Expecting solid result]
Rio Tinto [ same as above]
Unilever
Economic Data:
Sorry, wrong data added yesterday.
09.30 UK PMI Services Jul
12.00 UK BOE Interest Rate Announcement [the one to watch]
Also of importance:
13.30 US Initial Jobless Claims
Areas to watch: Oil and Miners.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the FTSE's last half hour surge makes it top heavy by 20pts; Oil related news may drag the market south; charts are unclear but the PoM favours the minor rise; CR is expected to be buoyant, but wrong ED yesterday from my supplier played havoc with my morning calculations, as it is, this is the one to watch for Thursday; SB companies have the FTSE opening up unchanged.
Early gut feeling: a rise.
Will I bet? Wednesday's Long pulled 12pts [pulled it too early]; tomorrow will be watching from the fence until after the 12pm rates announcement.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
Wednesday's results:
Close:5932, up 51pts [0.87%]
Range: 5932 - 5880.
Last 5 TD: up 0.95%.
OTM: 0.07%.
DOW
11199, up 74pts [0.67%].
Last 5 TD: up 0.88%.
OTM: 0.13%
S&P 500
1278.55, up 7.63pts [0.60%].
Last 5 TD: up 0.81%.
OTM: 0.15%.
News items of note:
It's that time of year again:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/efcbb110-22...age=8672feb4-504a-11da-bbd7-0000779e2340.html
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Wednesdays were unclear. Thursdays charts are again distorted due to the abnormal late rise.
The PoM System: +0.25, interpretation: favours the minor rise.
The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.
Companies reporting:
Barclays [follower of this company. Expecting solid result]
Rio Tinto [ same as above]
Unilever
Economic Data:
Sorry, wrong data added yesterday.
09.30 UK PMI Services Jul
12.00 UK BOE Interest Rate Announcement [the one to watch]
Also of importance:
13.30 US Initial Jobless Claims
Areas to watch: Oil and Miners.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the FTSE's last half hour surge makes it top heavy by 20pts; Oil related news may drag the market south; charts are unclear but the PoM favours the minor rise; CR is expected to be buoyant, but wrong ED yesterday from my supplier played havoc with my morning calculations, as it is, this is the one to watch for Thursday; SB companies have the FTSE opening up unchanged.
Early gut feeling: a rise.
Will I bet? Wednesday's Long pulled 12pts [pulled it too early]; tomorrow will be watching from the fence until after the 12pm rates announcement.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
downbytheriver7
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Market didn't like the rate rise I guess....
ukhero said:
A precautionary rise in order to limit the chances of more agressive rises later in the year....or so some economist the BBC talked to reckons.
Either way it kicked the market hard, Dow looks unfazed though, interisting to see how things go tomorrow once the dust has settled, looks a bit overdone to me, but what do I know?
Good luck to all.
downbytheriver7
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Given how much the market sold off over the last 2/3 months based on inflation fears I would expect possibly more downside as this sort of confirms some of those fears. Impressed and puzzled by the US markets rally from the low open. But hey nothing is ever always rational so the Fed might pause and the markets might take off, alternatively they could have all peaked out at resistance and we head down to new lows, what is clear is that we are at 'mid' way point where up or down looks equally doable.
The FTSE, Friday 4th Aug 2006
Thursday's results:
Close:5838, down 93pts [1.58%]
Range: 5940 - 5838.
Last 5 TD: down 1.52%.
OTM: 1.51%.
DOW
11242, up 42pts [0.38%].
Last 5 TD: up 1.28%.
OTM: 0.51%
S&P 500
1280.27, up 1.72pts [0.13%].
Last 5 TD: up 1.35%.
OTM: 0.29%.
News items of note:
NEW YORK - Oil prices fell Thursday as fears receded that a tropical storm blowing through the Caribbean could damage oil facilities in the Gulf of Mexico.
Light sweet crude for September delivery fell 76 cents to $75.05 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On London's ICE Futures exchange, September Brent crude fell 56 cents to $76.33 a barrel.
Analysts said the decline was triggered in part by news that Tropical Storm Chris was weakening and was unlikely to affect Gulf oil facilities.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Thursdays charts were again distorted due to the abnormal late rise. Fridays show no clear direction.
The PoM System: +6.25, interpretation: favours the rise.
The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.
Companies reporting:
Anglo American
British Airways
Royal Bank of Scotland
Economic Data:
None UK
13.30 US Non-Farm Payrolls [the one to watch].
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the rates decision pulled the FTSE South, so what next? Will the market dip further tomorrow? Will it reverse? I think an early morning rise followed by a late retraction is the strongest possibility; US markets are close to top heavy and if the ED tomorrow is negative we'll see a overly heavy fall; charts are unclear but the PoM has a high factor which favours the strong possibility of a rise; CR is expected to be positive; the US ED is the one to watch; SB companies have the FTSE opening up between 20-25pts.
Early gut feeling: early rise. The market can rise 70 - 90pts or fall 40-50.
Will I bet? Already Long. Will be amending my SG prior to the US ED results.
Addition: I considered that the markets rise on Wednesday was overdone by 20pts, whereas Thursdays fall was overdone by 40 - 50pts, which by my data puts the FTSE under par by 20 - 30pts; if right, the FTSE could rise this amount prior to the US ED result; here's a tip, for what its worth: if the FTSE does rise tomorrow, as said [and you are Long], and a few minutes before 13:30pm [UK time] place a stop gap of 10 pts below its current position. If the US ED is bad, the market will drop hard your SG will kick in but you'll have saved the best part of the rise, if the US ED is solid the markets will rise and so will your Long. Of course, if the market opens down and continues to fall, scrub these comments. Good luck.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
Thursday's results:
Close:5838, down 93pts [1.58%]
Range: 5940 - 5838.
Last 5 TD: down 1.52%.
OTM: 1.51%.
DOW
11242, up 42pts [0.38%].
Last 5 TD: up 1.28%.
OTM: 0.51%
S&P 500
1280.27, up 1.72pts [0.13%].
Last 5 TD: up 1.35%.
OTM: 0.29%.
News items of note:
NEW YORK - Oil prices fell Thursday as fears receded that a tropical storm blowing through the Caribbean could damage oil facilities in the Gulf of Mexico.
Light sweet crude for September delivery fell 76 cents to $75.05 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On London's ICE Futures exchange, September Brent crude fell 56 cents to $76.33 a barrel.
Analysts said the decline was triggered in part by news that Tropical Storm Chris was weakening and was unlikely to affect Gulf oil facilities.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Thursdays charts were again distorted due to the abnormal late rise. Fridays show no clear direction.
The PoM System: +6.25, interpretation: favours the rise.
The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.
Companies reporting:
Anglo American
British Airways
Royal Bank of Scotland
Economic Data:
None UK
13.30 US Non-Farm Payrolls [the one to watch].
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the rates decision pulled the FTSE South, so what next? Will the market dip further tomorrow? Will it reverse? I think an early morning rise followed by a late retraction is the strongest possibility; US markets are close to top heavy and if the ED tomorrow is negative we'll see a overly heavy fall; charts are unclear but the PoM has a high factor which favours the strong possibility of a rise; CR is expected to be positive; the US ED is the one to watch; SB companies have the FTSE opening up between 20-25pts.
Early gut feeling: early rise. The market can rise 70 - 90pts or fall 40-50.
Will I bet? Already Long. Will be amending my SG prior to the US ED results.
Addition: I considered that the markets rise on Wednesday was overdone by 20pts, whereas Thursdays fall was overdone by 40 - 50pts, which by my data puts the FTSE under par by 20 - 30pts; if right, the FTSE could rise this amount prior to the US ED result; here's a tip, for what its worth: if the FTSE does rise tomorrow, as said [and you are Long], and a few minutes before 13:30pm [UK time] place a stop gap of 10 pts below its current position. If the US ED is bad, the market will drop hard your SG will kick in but you'll have saved the best part of the rise, if the US ED is solid the markets will rise and so will your Long. Of course, if the market opens down and continues to fall, scrub these comments. Good luck.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
troyresearch
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Elliotticians seem to think the FTSE will top out around 6139 (just 272 pts away) with a downward target of 4900 :-0 Opinions?
troyresearch said:
You'll need to add a time frame to the 6139 position.
Personally, I would say its possible in 2-4 weeks, but it is solely dependent on the US FOMC this coming Tuesday. If the FOMC place the rates on hold we'll see a 100pt rise in one day; if they raise it, the FTSE will drag its feet for a least a month. Lets see.
We've had a wealth of positive company results over the past two weeks; Oil has remained below the $80 dollar mark [which I anticipated it going beyond]; the Middle East crisis, although becoming more torn as the days roll by, is losing its effect on the market, and the market in general appears to be Bullish.
So, in regards to betting that the FTSE goes up or down over the coming weeks, I favour the Long.
Yours
UK
troyresearch
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The FTSE, Monday 7th Aug 2006
Friday's results:
Close:5889, up 51pts [0.87%]
Range: 5893 - 5836.
Last 5 TD: down 1.41%.
OTM: -0.63%.
DOW
11240, down 2.2pts [0.02%].
Last 5 TD: up 0.19%.
OTM: 0.49%
S&P 500
1279.36, down 0.91pts [0.07%].
Last 5 TD: up 0.07%.
OTM: 0.21%.
News items of note:
Investors banking on the Fed to leave interest rates on hold: By Jennifer Hughes in New York
Central banks and interest rates seem set to continue dominating market moves this week, with decisions due from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan and an explanation of last week's surprise rate rise from the Bank of England.
Overshadowing the early part of the week will be the Fed, which meets tomorrow. Following an unexpectedly soft employment report on Friday, most investors expect the central bank to leave rates unchanged for the first time in more than two years of steady, quarter-point increases.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Fridays showed no clear direction. Mondays indicate indecision.
The PoM System: -3.0, interpretation: favours the dip.
The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.
Companies reporting:
Easy Jet.
Economic Data:
09:30 UK Industrial Production June.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the US markets reversal Friday with their up down momentum will certainly make the FTSE nervous come Monday morning, a strong possibility is a decline followed by a gradual climb to finish close to evens; no major news from the weekend to jostle the market; charts indicate indecision and the PoM favours a dip; CR and ED will have no effect; SB companies have the FTSE opening down by 30pts.
Early gut feeling: neutral.
Will I bet? As it stands, no.
For the Week; last week I was wrong when quoting that the FTSE would finish on a weak up. This coming week will depend on the FOMC, so I'll pass.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
Friday's results:
Close:5889, up 51pts [0.87%]
Range: 5893 - 5836.
Last 5 TD: down 1.41%.
OTM: -0.63%.
DOW
11240, down 2.2pts [0.02%].
Last 5 TD: up 0.19%.
OTM: 0.49%
S&P 500
1279.36, down 0.91pts [0.07%].
Last 5 TD: up 0.07%.
OTM: 0.21%.
News items of note:
Investors banking on the Fed to leave interest rates on hold: By Jennifer Hughes in New York
Central banks and interest rates seem set to continue dominating market moves this week, with decisions due from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan and an explanation of last week's surprise rate rise from the Bank of England.
Overshadowing the early part of the week will be the Fed, which meets tomorrow. Following an unexpectedly soft employment report on Friday, most investors expect the central bank to leave rates unchanged for the first time in more than two years of steady, quarter-point increases.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Fridays showed no clear direction. Mondays indicate indecision.
The PoM System: -3.0, interpretation: favours the dip.
The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.
Companies reporting:
Easy Jet.
Economic Data:
09:30 UK Industrial Production June.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the US markets reversal Friday with their up down momentum will certainly make the FTSE nervous come Monday morning, a strong possibility is a decline followed by a gradual climb to finish close to evens; no major news from the weekend to jostle the market; charts indicate indecision and the PoM favours a dip; CR and ED will have no effect; SB companies have the FTSE opening down by 30pts.
Early gut feeling: neutral.
Will I bet? As it stands, no.
For the Week; last week I was wrong when quoting that the FTSE would finish on a weak up. This coming week will depend on the FOMC, so I'll pass.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
Has anyone purchased "Vince Stazione's" course? i understand if people buy the course he will post the "tips" on his website. Would be interesting if those who bought the course are able to post on this site. As a possible buyer of the course how successful has it been for people??
The FTSE, Tuesday 8th Aug 2006
Monday's results:
Close:5828, down 60pts [1.03%]
Range: 5889 - 5820.
Last 5 TD: down 1.66%.
OTM: -1.66%.
DOW
11219, down 21pts [0.19%].
Last 5 TD: up 0.31%.
OTM: 0.31%
S&P 500
1275.77, down 3.59pts [0.28%].
Last 5 TD: down 0.07%.
OTM: 0.07%.
News items of note:
Telegraph - 'The London market opened weaker this morning, dragged down by mining stocks and fears over rising oil prices as BP shut down its oil field in Alaska. Fears of an interest rate rise in the US tomorrow also weighed on the UK stock market, after a lower finish on Wall Street on Friday.'
Also;
Industrial output unexpectedly fell in June due to maintenance work in the oil and gas sectors, official data this morning showed, but economists said the dip would be unlikely to silence calls for a further interest rate hike before the end of the year.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Mondays indicated indecision. Tuesdays show an element of change and therefore favours a rise.
The PoM System: +3.5, interpretation: favours the rise.
The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.
Companies reporting:
BAA
Standard Chartered
Economic Data:
11:00 UK BRC Sales monitor July
13:00 US Non farm productivity
19:15 US FOMC rate announcement Aug
Areas to watch: Oil and Gold, early movement with the US markets.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the markets movement today was pretty much as expected, but tomorrow will be totally different: we have the results of two major US ED results to contend with and the further uncertainty with the price of oil; charts and PoM agree with a rise; CR will play no part in the FTSE's movement, but as said, the US ED are the ones to watch; SB companies have the FTSE opening up by 30pts.
Early gut feeling: a rise.
Will I bet? Made a small hourly Binary gain yesterday, nothing major, just enough for a Tenents four pack and a takeaway; tomorrow is different. If the FTSE does rise by 30ish points in the morning we'll see an up down momentum throughout the day, ideal for scalping but IMO very little will be gained by letting a Long run all day. As to the possible decision by the FOMC, flip a coin. I favour the 'No rise' narrative. Whether I'll leave a Long open after trading depends on how brave I feel at the time. I'll let you know prior to market close.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
Monday's results:
Close:5828, down 60pts [1.03%]
Range: 5889 - 5820.
Last 5 TD: down 1.66%.
OTM: -1.66%.
DOW
11219, down 21pts [0.19%].
Last 5 TD: up 0.31%.
OTM: 0.31%
S&P 500
1275.77, down 3.59pts [0.28%].
Last 5 TD: down 0.07%.
OTM: 0.07%.
News items of note:
Telegraph - 'The London market opened weaker this morning, dragged down by mining stocks and fears over rising oil prices as BP shut down its oil field in Alaska. Fears of an interest rate rise in the US tomorrow also weighed on the UK stock market, after a lower finish on Wall Street on Friday.'
Also;
Industrial output unexpectedly fell in June due to maintenance work in the oil and gas sectors, official data this morning showed, but economists said the dip would be unlikely to silence calls for a further interest rate hike before the end of the year.
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Mondays indicated indecision. Tuesdays show an element of change and therefore favours a rise.
The PoM System: +3.5, interpretation: favours the rise.
The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.
Companies reporting:
BAA
Standard Chartered
Economic Data:
11:00 UK BRC Sales monitor July
13:00 US Non farm productivity
19:15 US FOMC rate announcement Aug
Areas to watch: Oil and Gold, early movement with the US markets.
The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the markets movement today was pretty much as expected, but tomorrow will be totally different: we have the results of two major US ED results to contend with and the further uncertainty with the price of oil; charts and PoM agree with a rise; CR will play no part in the FTSE's movement, but as said, the US ED are the ones to watch; SB companies have the FTSE opening up by 30pts.
Early gut feeling: a rise.
Will I bet? Made a small hourly Binary gain yesterday, nothing major, just enough for a Tenents four pack and a takeaway; tomorrow is different. If the FTSE does rise by 30ish points in the morning we'll see an up down momentum throughout the day, ideal for scalping but IMO very little will be gained by letting a Long run all day. As to the possible decision by the FOMC, flip a coin. I favour the 'No rise' narrative. Whether I'll leave a Long open after trading depends on how brave I feel at the time. I'll let you know prior to market close.
If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.
Yours
UK
Vorbis
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Back in 2003 I bought VS's "Making money from financial spread trading"
It came with a 150 page folder and a video. I have to give it credit for introducing me to financial spread betting because I'd never heard of it at the time.
It was a decent enough introduction for a beginner but it contained nothing particularly earth-shattering. I can't remember how much I paid for it, but it was probably over-priced since it did'nt contain anything that you could'nt get from T2W and a couple of other sites for free and a little bit of time and effort.
His site contains a few interesting articles and updates for the folder but the T2W knowledge Lab is far superior IMHO.
As far as "tips" are concerned, I haven't noticed any, but I personally would'nt take tips anyway!
I hope this is of some use to you.
P.S. Apologies to ukhero if this is off-topic.
Brave decision. Not certain that any pause in the rate hike will significantly rally the US markets since it is already largely anticipated. A further 25 basis point hike today would almost certainly provoke a fall.ukhero said:
Either way the risk seems more disposed to the downside and therefore I would be very tempted to short the FTSE if it breaks below 5795 on the Cash market.
