The FTSE 2006

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Thursday 26th January 2006

Wednesday's results:
Open: 5633.
Close: 5704, up 70pts [1.25%].
Range: 5633 - 5704.

A corker of a day helped along by the miners and the DOW's positive move whilst the UK market still remained open.

Last 5 trading days: up 41pts.

On the month: up 86pts [1.53%]

Wednesday's Dow:
10709.74, down 2.48pts [0.02%]

Last 5 trading days: down 146pts

On the month: down 8pts.

News items of note:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - 'U.S. stocks ended unofficially lower on Wednesday amid concern that weaker-than-expected earnings may point to a slowdown in corporate profit growth, while a drop in existing home sales further dampened sentiment.'

LONDON (ShareCast) - 'A leading economic think-tank has warned Gordon Brown he will have to raise taxes by £2.5bn because the UK economy is not growing quickly enough to cover recent increases in government expenditure. According to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, even if the Chancellor embarks on an £8.5bn cutback in the next spending round he will still need to find at least £2.5bn..'

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Wednesday's supported a moderate rise. Thursday's also support a rise.

Companies reporting:
JP Morgan Fleming
Lonmin

Economic Data:
None.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the DOW slipped a touch after the UK market closed and we may see an initial 6-12pt drop early morning; charts predict another rise; no major company and economic news.

Area to watch: Miners.

Early gut feeling: Neutral.

Will I bet? still riding today's Long.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[kriesau]

Well, the market does not seem to be too concerned about this so far !

Slump in growth worst since 1992
Money Telegraph
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (Filed: 26/01/2006)


Growth fell last year to the lowest rate since the slump of 1992 as car output declined and British industry continued to lose global export share at a disturbing pace. The economy grew at 1.8pc in 2005, according to preliminary data released yesterday by the Office for National Statistics - far below Gordon Brown's original forecast of 3pc to 3.5pc.

Strong figures from hotels, restaurants, and shops boosted fourth quarter growth to 0.6pc, suggesting the worst of the downturn may now be over after a year of sluggish sales. But analysts said the economy remained badly out of kilter, with capital investment languishing at record lows and a trade deficit nearing the danger level of 5pc of GDP.

"We have not got a healthy balance," said Geoffrey Dicks, an economist at the Royal Bank of Scotland. "The manufacturing sector is in terminal decline. There has been a big growth in retail sales but not enough of it is going into our own backyard. The fact that our industry remains chronically weak at a time when the world economy is doing well is a concern. Countries like Germany are holding up much better than us."

The British Chambers of Commerce called for an interest rate cut to boost manufacturers and tame sterling, which rose to 1.7873 against the dollar yesterday. "Powerful fundamental factors continue to support the case for an early modest interest rate cut," said the BCC's, economic adviser David Kern. UK unemployment is rising, year on year GDP growth is significantly below-trend, and wage rises and CPI inflation have both eased," he said.

The Bank of England is unlikely to oblige, judging from the minutes of the January 12 meeting released yesterday. Stephen Nickell, the Monetary Policy Committee's one dissenting "dove", again failed to persuade any colleagues to back his call for an immediate cut in rates from 4.5pc to 4.25pc. The minutes said the M4 money supply was up 12.1pc in November at an annual rate, the highest since the inflationary boom of 1990. While exports and investment were weak, the MPC said this was offset by a recovery in house prices and spending. "Taking this evidence together suggested that growth was likely to continue broadly in line with its historic average rate in the next few quarters," it said.

Alan Castle, an economist at Lehman Brothers, said the minutes were the "final nail in the coffin" for hopes of a February rate cut, but said the economy was more vulnerable than it looked.

 

[downbytheriver7]

Short @ 5741

Gone short again with a stop @ 5750. I don't bother reading the news and trying to reconcile it with the market too much anymore. Generally just focus on my 2 main indicators the moving averages and the Parab SAR. I keep in mind various support & resistance levels and try to ignore my own bias and that is normally wrong!

Incidently sure I read in the Times this morning that GDP was ahead of targets currently?

 

[kriesau]

Gone short again with a stop @ 5750. I don't bother reading the news and trying to reconcile it with the market too much anymore. Generally just focus on my 2 main indicators the moving averages and the Parab SAR. I keep in mind various support & resistance levels and try to ignore my own bias and that is normally wrong!

Incidently sure I read in the Times this morning that GDP was ahead of targets currently?

What is the 'Parab SAR' ?

 

[kriesau]

FC - You still short from 5691 ?

 

[ukhero]

Gone short again with a stop @ 5750. I don't bother reading the news and trying to reconcile it with the market too much anymore. Generally just focus on my 2 main indicators the moving averages and the Parab SAR. I keep in mind various support & resistance levels and try to ignore my own bias and that is normally wrong!

Incidently sure I read in the Times this morning that GDP was ahead of targets currently?

I'll keep hold of my Long for a touch longer. I've adjusted my stop gap, and as long as it does'nt slip by more than 10pts I'll leave it there until the American Markets open as I believe it still has a little more left.

UK

 

[ukhero]

Having said that...

UK

 

[downbytheriver7]

Having said that...UK

A right up and down day! I closed my short @ 5720 and went long!

The 'Parab SAR' : (not my words!)

The Parabolic stop and reversal (SAR) indicator was introduced by J. Welles Wilder in New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems. The SAR is a trend following type indicator which is always long or short the market. The SAR can be applied to any time horizon bar chart such as, monthly, weekly, daily, intra-day, tick, and even point and figure.
The basic premise of the Parabolic SAR is to create a trailing stop that is at first far enough away from the initial buy so that retracements in the early stages of the trend do not stop you out of your position. As the trend matures the trailing stop moves closer and closer at an accelerating rate to recent local lows of the current price, until the stop is penetrated by adverse price movement and a sell signal is given (opposite logic applies for sell signal).

The shape, slope and speed of the SAR is controlled by three parameters, the starting (start) Acceleration Factor (AF), the increment (inc) that the AF can change when a new price high or low is made, and the maximum (max) AF. Because of the way the SAR is calculated, the shape of the SAR curve resembles a parabola, hence it's name.

Most software packages only allow one to vary the AF increment and the AF maximum, fixing the starting AF at 0.02. This restriction hampers the trend following abilities of the Parabolic. Many times as the SAR hugs the price curve, it is penetrated by a price bar by a small amount, causing the SAR to generate an opposite signal. The price then immediately turns around and resumes going in the direction it was going before this penetration occurred causing a costly whipsaw loss. Many of the whipsaws losses are caused by noise or randomness in the price series. Thus if the SAR is to represent the trend of a real price series it must have the capability to ignore penetrations of noise level amounts. To this end, I have modified the Parabolic SAR formula to include a variable that allows the SAR not to reverse unless penetrated by a defined amount. I define this new parameter as xo, for noise crossover increment.

The initial stop loss for the SAR after a buy signal is set at the lowest low encountered while in the previous sell signal or after a sell signal at the highest high encountered while in the previous buy signal. Many times this initial stop loss is not far away enough from the signal to prevent a whipsaw. To solve this problem I've added a fifth parameter called xprc, for "extra price" that is subtracted from the previous lowest low when a buy signal occurs so that the initial stop price is the lowest low minus xprc. On the other side, when a sell signal occurs the xprc is added to the previous highest high so that the initial stop price is the highest high plus xprc. Making the initial stop further away also makes the SAR curve take longer to catch up with the price curve further minimizing whipsaws in an initial stages of the signal.

 

[FetteredChinos]

yes i am still short...

going long at todays close though..


got to trade the systems religously..

its worked for nigh on 80 years, and across several indices.. in time im sure that i will come out ahead..

FC

 

[ukhero]

Gone short again with a stop @ 5750. I don't bother reading the news and trying to reconcile it with the market too much anymore. Generally just focus on my 2 main indicators the moving averages and the Parab SAR. I keep in mind various support & resistance levels and try to ignore my own bias and that is normally wrong!

Incidently sure I read in the Times this morning that GDP was ahead of targets currently?

Seeing as how you mentioned the Parab SAR [PS] of which I know very little of, and seeing as I lost 10pts by cancelling my Long later then I should, I took the liberty of doing some homework.

I've been following both the DOW and the FTSE interday via the PS all day long. Interesting.

Thanks downbytheriver7,

and thanks again for your additional note of the PS in detail.

Yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Friday 27th January 2006

Thursday's results:
Open: 5704.
Close: 5722, up 18pts [0.32%].
Range: 5698 - 5744.

Last 5 trading days: up 29pts [0.51%]

On the month: up 104pts [1.85%]

Thursday's Dow:
10809, up99pts [0.93%]

Last 5 trading days: down 71pts

On the month: up 91pts.

News items of note:

Telegraph - 'Growth fell last year to the lowest rate since the slump of 1992 as car output declined and British industry continued to lose global export share at a disturbing pace. The economy grew at 1.8pc in 2005, according to preliminary data released yesterday by the Office for National Statistics - far below Gordon Brown's original forecast of 3pc to 3.5pc. Strong figures from hotels, restaurants, and shops boosted fourth quarter growth to 0.6pc, suggesting the worst of the downturn may now be over after a year of sluggish sales. But analysts said the economy remained badly out of kilter, with capital investment languishing at record lows and a trade deficit nearing the danger level of 5pc of GDP.'

Timesonline - 'CHINA’S economy expanded 9.9 per cent last year, overtaking Britain and France to become the world’s fourth largest, while income per head for China’s 1.3 billion people increased to £120 a year to make its inhabitants richer than those of Morocco.

With the economy now valued at $2.25 trillion (£1.26 trillion), excluding inflation, the announcement from the National Bureau of Statistics puts China marginally ahead of the UK, at about $2.07 trillion, although the final order will depend on the exact figure for inflation throughout the UK economy last year.

What is not in doubt is that China will sweep well ahead of Britain during 2006, and it is only a matter of a few years before third-placed Germany is surpassed. Chen Xingdong, an economist at BNP Paribas in Beijing, said: “China will overtake Germany by 2008.”
Charts, and nothing but the charts: Thursday's indicated a rise. Friday's, also for the third day running, a rise, although the indication is somewhat weak.

Companies reporting:

Abacus Group
BOC Group
Hiliton Group
Partygaming [this one may make the market shuffle, and as such it's making me nervous]
Schroder AsiaPacific [AGM]

Economic Data:
None.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the DOW had a bumper day which should add a positive air to the early morning market; charts predict a weak possibility of a rise; no economic data, and of the reporting companies Partygaming is the one to watch.

Early gut feeling: a small rise.

Will I bet? Went Long [5720] prior to the market closing.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[downbytheriver7]

Good trading all!

Well closed the long from yesterday at 5770 and reversed the position to a short for now, tight stop indeed here.I expect to change my stance several times today and guessing I'll end up long! We'll see.

 

[downbytheriver7]

price spike on one of the brokers...anyone notice/catch it?

 

[ukhero]

price spike on one of the brokers...anyone notice/catch it?

Nope!

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Monday 30th January 2006

Friday's results:
Open: 5722.
Close: 5786, up 64pts [1.12%].
Range: 5722 - 5788.

Last 5 trading days: up 114pts [2%]
On the month: up 168pts [2.99%]

Friday's Dow:
10907, up 97pts [0.90%]

Last 5 trading days: up 239pts [2.24%]
On the month: up 189pts [1.76%]

The DOW's looking a bit heavy!

News items of note:

All's quite at time of writing.

Worth a read: http://money.cnn.com/2006/01/27/news/international/pluggedin_fortune/index.htm

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Friday's indicated a weak rise. Monday: another rise.

Companies reporting:

Friends Provident

Economic Data:

None.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the DOW ended Friday on a positive note, however, the DOW's looking a touch heavy and we may see a minimal decline come Monday; charts support another rise; Company and economic news is tame; plenty of big guns reporting this coming week, so we may see a high come Friday.

Coming week: FOMC meeting on Tuesday; UN security meeting ref' Iran.

Early gut feeling: neutral, but edging towards a rise.

Will I bet? No. There may be a rise early morning and thereafter a slide back in the afternoon period. In all, not enough for me to throw good money to the SB companies.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Tuesday 31st January 2006

Monday's results:
Open: 5786.
Close: 5779, down 7pts [0.12%].
Range: 5772 - 5796.

Last 5 trading days: up 119pts [2.10%]
On the month: up 161pts [2.87%]

Last trading day of the month tomorrow. Historically, if January is up then so is the last trading day.

Monday's Dow:
10899, down 7pts [0.07%]

Last 5 trading days: up 209pts [1.95%]
On the month: up 181pts [1.69%]

Still well heavy for the five day period.

News items of note:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - 'Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM - news), the world's largest publicly traded oil company, reported a quarterly profit of $10.7 billion on Monday, rounding out the most profitable year in U.S. corporate history.

The results pushed up Exxon's profit for the year to a staggering $36.13 billion -- bigger than the economies of 125 of the 184 countries ranked by the World Bank. Profit rose 42 percent from 2004, largely due to soaring oil and gas prices.'

FTSE falls as banks hit by profit-taking: 'London equities were lower in closing trade on Monday as strength in the oil and gas sector gave way to weaker banks and a slow start on Wall Street.'

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Monday's indicated a rise. Tuesday's, no clear indication, and as such it can go either way.

Companies reporting:
Carpetright
Imperial Tobacco
Friends Provident
Tullow Oil

Economic Data:

Consumer Credit (GBP bn)

19:15 US FOMC Decision, last: 4.25% - expected: 4.5%

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the DOW's had a see-saw day and FTSE followed; both Indexes are waiting for the FOMC decision tomorrow; charts are not clear; companies reporting should shuffle the market.

Areas to watch:

Oil, oil related companies, miners.

Early gut feeling: a rise.

Will I bet? No, not early morning. May come in later when the market shows its true direction.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[downbytheriver7]

Me, I am short @ 5790 stop @ 5800 looking for the FOMC to point the markets lower, if not then I will reverse the position and go long. Either way should be some fun today! Enjoy.

 

[downbytheriver7]

Me, I am short @ 5790 stop @ 5800 looking for the FOMC to point the markets lower, if not then I will reverse the position and go long. Either way should be some fun today! Enjoy.

umm....might close out the short here ahead of the FOMC for a nice gain and then see what way it goes..any other thoughts?

 

[kriesau]

FTSE 100 – onwards and upwards!
30 January 2006
By: Simon Brown, Strategy Director of Quantigma

January sees an uplifting FTSE and there's little to suggest the rally will end here.

The trading range for the last four weeks has been 5,650-5,800. The last FTSE commentary commented on buying the dips! Now the FTSE is trading right at the top of this range, just shy of 5,800. Technically, there is nothing to suggest that the rally will end here. Support is still prominent at 5,650 and resistance is temporary at 5,800. Above that, 6,000 is in sight, which was my target a year ago for year end 2005. Fundamentally, affairs are relatively rosy; in that the domestic economy is stable, but macroeconomic unrest can always spoil the party.

Tuesday sees the UK Consumer Credit figures released. Expectations are for a 10% rise for the month of December – Christmas shopping being the obvious contributor to such an increase. With little else to focus on for the week, the FTSE may ride the coat tails of the Dow, while keeping one eye on the unrest amongst some of the major oil producing nations.

http://www.easy2spreadbet.com/

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Wednesday 1st February 2006

Tuesday's results:
Open: 5779.
Close: 5760, down 19pts [0.34%].
Range: 57760 - 5792.

Last 5 trading days: up 127pts [2.25%]
On the month: up 142pts [2.52%]

Tuesday's Dow:
10864, down 35pts [0.32%]

Last 5 trading days: up 151pts [1.41%]
On the month: up 146pts [1.36%]

News items of note:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve on Tuesday raised U.S. interest rates a 14th straight time, suggesting a 19-month campaign was near an end while saying higher borrowing costs may yet be needed. Meeting on the final day of Chairman Alan Greenspan's 18-1/2 year tenure, the U.S. central bank's Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to lift the benchmark federal funds rate target a quarter-percentage point to 4.5 percent, the highest since April 2001.

Times Online - Telecoms stocks took a hit after Cable & Wireless gave its second profit warning in six months, while Ryanair and EasyJet were pinned back by broker downgrades.

Also: The upturn in spending over the Christmas period appears to have been a festive anomaly with retail sales falling back sharply in January, according to the latest high street survey. The CBI’s monthly sales balance survey, which measures the number of shops reporting falling sales against the number reporting an improvement, fell to -11 this month from 0 in December and below analysts’ predictions of a fall to -2.

FT.com - Oil prices fell on Tuesday after reassurances from Iran that it would not stop crude exports in spite of increasing tensions over its nuclear programme with the United Nations. “We have no reason to stop our exports,” said Karem Vaziri, Iran’s oil minister, who added there was no link between Iranian oil exports and questions over its nuclear programme.

However, Lybia’s energy minister warned that an escalation of the rown between Iran and the UN could have a serious impact on oil prices. Nymex March West Texas Intermediate fell 50 cents to $67.85 a barrel while IPE March Brent traded 68 cents lower at $65.91 a barrel.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Tuesday's had no clear indication and as such it could go either way. Wednesday's say a dip.

Companies reporting:
BSB
Shaftesbury
Wolseley

Economic Data:
09:30 UK Manufacturing PMI

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: both markets didn't know where to go today, the DOW in particular hung around until the rates decision and then just shuffled some more before ending face down; charts say a dip; company and economic news is tame.

Note @ 22:20hrs, Google is down $66.76 - ouch!!!

I could be drastically wrong, but both markets look increasingly nervous!

Areas to watch:

Miners, gold and oil.

Early gut feeling: a fall.

Will I bet? Yup, a small Short.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK