The Euro/usd 0.50 cents thread (long term)

[RidderTrade]

Finally..we see some weakness in euro again.. it declined in 5.. which means the trend could have turned to down already.. i want to see some strenght.. before taking selling position..

 

[Pippy5000]

50 cents?? Possible, but only possible if the current unified Euro ceases to exist.. Things will have to get really, really bad in Italy, Spain and Greece for the Euro to break up.. Do you the think the French and Germans will stand by and let that happen quietly?

Too early for an official prediction.. Seems ambitious to say 50 cents this early Ridd, but if you're right you will be the greatest trader of all time.

 

[RidderTrade]

Pippppppppp

50 cents?? Possible, but only possible if the current unified Euro ceases to exist.. Things will have to get really, really bad in Italy, Spain and Greece for the Euro to break up.. Do you the think the French and Germans will stand by and let that happen quietly?

Too early for an official prediction.. Seems ambitious to say 50 cents this early Ridd, but if you're right you will be the greatest trader of all time.

yeah.. i expect something terrible to happen.. even i am euro user.. i just say what i see..

 

[RidderTrade]

usd is becoming weaker, euro is getting some legs.. we will see..

then the 50 cents prediction (its a long term prediction, it could take years)
will be more postponed.

but new tops for euro could be god's short gift later in the year!!! as i still expect an armaggeddon for stocks in coming years.. doesn;t really matter if dow climbs to 10000 from here.. to correct the whole plunge from 14000 to 6400

thanks and Good Luck

 

[montmorencyt2w]

On "printing pounds and US dollars": I think I have a lot more faith in the Euro than the pound, long term. As for the dollar, who knows.

Obama is on a roll just now, but what if he were to unravel under pressure? Small thing, but I notice lately that when answering questions, he sometimes seems very hesitant. Could be a good thing - sign of trying to answer honestly, which most politicians never do. But maybe he's just not quite as good as everyone thought.

Apart from that, China is clamouring for a new reserve currency. What might that be? The Yuan RMB? Maybe one day, but surely not yet awhile. And surely not the Yen. The Swiss Franc? Maybe at one time it might have been a candidate, but I'm not sure about now.

So why not the Euro?

Some conspiracy theorists reckoned that the real reason the US invaded Iraq was to forestall a possible move to price all internation oil deals in Euro. Well, leaving aside the Iraq invasion, what if oil were to be priced internationally in Euros? What then?

 

[RidderTrade]

Thanks for nice message monty ,

Euro starting to show.. weakness.. still euro has only gone to 1.3x which i mentioned as a possibility to head to first.. see earlier posts riddertrade..

We saw euro falling despite equity rally, a weak sign..

watch it!!

 

[montmorencyt2w]

I used to think the same way that you do and I would look at the EURUSD daily chart every day waiting for the euro to fall off its cliff. I'm told there is big money waiting for the euro to go either way and I could not understand why anyone would think it could go up.
However a friend changed my thinking recently and then the currency intervention actions of the Swiss this Friday confirmed it for me. A 3% decrease in the value of their currency in minutes shows what a central bank can do if it wants to. Also clearly every currency cannot all devalue at once so someone will be left with an overvalued currency in the race to the bottom.
Every other country in the world can print money (QE). The only currency that cannot do that in a hurry because of its structure the Euro. And Mr Trichet still says there is no risk of deflaton so the Euro could end up being the overvalued one.
I think states at risk of default in the Eurozone like Spain and Ireland might be more likely to leave the euro and run to the IMF before waiting for the EU to print money to save them.
Nicola

Sorry this is a bit late to comment, but there was an interesting piece in "The Guardian" the other day warning of impending problems in the Irish banking sector, which could have knock-on effects in the UK (as if we didn't have enough problems).
Before, I'd have thought an Irish withdrawal from the Euro unlikely, but maybe not now.

 

[RidderTrade]

Euro sharply down, despite stock market holds steady today,

watch out next week action, usd could be moving up sharply

RIDDERTRADE

 

[montmorencyt2w]

Trader Dante warned that the Euro was going to tank, over on the "potential setups" thread.
I don't know what his evidence was, but I doubt if he would have given such a clear sign for no reason.

 

[RidderTrade]

Hello,

My view on the euro that it is likely to be Doomed.
I foresee that euro will collapse and hit 0.50 in the longer term..
It could hit 1.3x first, but till now any push up of the euro has failed.

* As we see continuous strenght in the USD , as a safe haven
* As i see problems in the Eurozone, which i see will be a danger to fall apart, and then the euro as well. The EU is not a united union.
* Futhermore i see some earlier recovery on the us economy compared to eurozone economy, due to the rate policy

Does anyone share this view? Whats your opinion? Or you have a contrarian opinion?
Any comment is welcome.

Cheers, RidderTrade

I expect 1.12 euro/usd in 2009

Lets see, i indeed have hit 1.3x now.., will it tumble again under 1.30? :idea:

 

[poborsky]

The Irish govt have had two emergency budgets in the last six months to cut spending and increase taxes. Their borrowings as a percentage of gdp are similar to that of the UK. This may be way too simple, but it says to me that if Gordon Brown can lower taxes and spend more then one of these approaches to economics has to be wrong. If its so easy to print money and lend it out for more spending, how come the Germans and French are keeping such a tight control of the Euro?

 

[KillPhil08]

Trader Dante warned that the Euro was going to tank, over on the "potential setups" thread.
I don't know what his evidence was, but I doubt if he would have given such a clear sign for no reason.

Something about buying swissy instead of euro.

 

[RidderTrade]

BOOM!!! 240 PIP gain in gbp/usd (short)

 

[RidderTrade]

euro currencie 1.3x a lifetime selling? or.. more strength ahead first.?

ridd

 

[RidderTrade]

saw some volatile selling in euro last friday

 

[RidderTrade]

euro could still see 1.12 , there is really nothing changed in my outlook..
i bet gbp will be worse....

 

[RidderTrade]

well well..euro has come to earth..

1.3760 wil trigger a H and S pattern.., could be a little resistance though.

dont expect it to hold.. though.. sooner or later

 

[elitejets]

Yeah finally some love (and pips) for the bears like you Ridd!

 

[ExpertTradingAdvisor]

Seems like the EURUSD daily chart is forming the right shoulder of the HAS pattern. There are actually 2 HAS one short term and one long tern if you look back further on the charts.

 

[RidderTrade]

yeah there is, double h and s patterns..