SteveBanks
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The Daily Index Trader
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I agree, their charts are rubbish. I have been looking at trading using pivots and you cant even plot any pivot lines on their charts which seems to be a pretty basic requirement for any trader. IG charts are a lot better.
past record of success/failures days is a bizarre basis of choosing to trade on its own. The non-correlation of CAC/DAX is though.
I think the past records on the evaluator are to work out your stake sizes and not the correlation, thus helping your bank with a run of losing days and 'enhancing' your bank with a run of winning days.
SteveBanks
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SteveBanks
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Looking at the charts they seem to be moving well together at the moment.
Ive been using the evaluator for a while now as you know and my stake sizes do not appear to have reduced when the CAC and DAX are out of correlation. I dont know what the calculations are on his system, so i am following the enhanced strategy and let it run its course. It is good to know that our banks are somewhat protected with runs of losing trades. Take a long term view of this strategy and i dont think you will go wrong
stevespray
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Basically with this system you are trading two indecies. Each index will have have a different make up and weighting in terms of shares from different sectors. The CAC is more geared to financial based stocks. The DAX contains some heavyweight German engineering firms like car makers etc. What you'll find is that some days certain sectors of the market come into sharper focus. On those days the index with the heavier weight in that particular sector will move more that the other index. So for example, if you see a day where leading financial stocks have been hit by a wave of selling then you're more likely to see CAC hit much harder (percentage wise) than DAX. Likewise if some car makers post good results then DAX is likely to run up much more than CAC. Correlation between stocks, indecies and underlying markets is generally regarded to be around 80% to 85%.
Steve.
Steve.
SteveBanks
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Ive been using the evaluator for a while now as you know and my stake sizes do not appear to have reduced when the CAC and DAX are out of correlation. I dont know what the calculations are on his system, so i am following the enhanced strategy and let it run its course. It is good to know that our banks are somewhat protected with runs of losing trades. Take a long term view of this strategy and i dont think you will go wrong
I agree. It's just that when I asked Martin about the chances of the two markets continuing to trade in a manner where the system would work he told me that he couldn't see that changing in the near future but if the trends changed in that way then the Evaluator would pick up on it within a few trades and in his words "would effectively shut down to protect funds". Which I found re-assuring.
Having seen the way the markets have been behaving recently I imagine it's possible that the Evaluator could have reacted.
Having said that they markets seem to behaving in a perfect way for a successful trade today. At the moment.
Didn't people comment in this thread yesterday that the markets looked uncorrelated before we placed out trades. Should the Evaluator, therefore, have picked this up?
I don't think I read anything in the literature that indicated that the Enhanced setting looked at anything other than the win/lose ratio of each day of the week. I may be wrong and missed it, but if it does look at the correlation for each trading day, then surely that would have been trumpeted on every page, as that's what this system seems to need.
If there was a run of 3 losing Fridays out of 3 traded, and for arguments sake, let's say the CAC and DAX weren't correlated on those days, from what I've read in the manual, the Evaluator in Enhanced mode would produce a no trade day on the next Friday. But if the markets had moved back into correlation on the days preceding the Friday, the Evaluator still wouldn't give the thumbs up for Friday, as it would be looking at the win/loss ratio for Fridays, not the market data. So, I can't see how it is looking at correlation. I'm not an experienced trader, but as others have pointed out, is day of the week any real indicator of how successful a trade will be?
I'm very new to all of this, so excuse my ignorance if I'm misunderstanding.
Steve
SteveBanks
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I think I might have answered that in my message above. It would have appeared while you were writing yours.
I just ran my own correlation software and the 100 day correlation of the indexes at the moment are:
CAC: DAX 96%
CAC: FTSE 90%
DAX: FTSE 79%
So you can see the CAC: DAX is excellently correlated at the moment, so the evaluator hasn't done it's decision based on that, I assume oddly enough it's on the recent losing streak...
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SteveBanks
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Thanks leonarda. As ever a useful input. It could well be that the Evaluator was preventing further losses after a very poor run in the last couple of weeks.
I guess we're all learning and trying to figure out whether the systems is ultimately one that will work. At the moment I would be happy to be in the market as they are moving extremely well together.
My take on the evaluator is that it just limits trades on less successful days and increases stakes on more successful days such as Wednesday, correlation doesnt come into the equation. I can understand why people say that the day of the week is irrelevant to success, but by the same token if trends say that you are winning 90% of the time on a Wednesday and 40% of the time of time on a Friday and the evaluator adjusts to this then surely that is a good thing? Just because days of the week isnt something that people have considered as an important element in the past doesnt mean that it cant be a huge factor in a system like this. Maybe that is one of the major factors the system has been so successful and if so then the evaluator is the key to all this. Just a thought
SteveBanks
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My take on the evaluator is that it just limits trades on less successful days and increases stakes on more successful days such as Wednesday, correlation doesnt come into the equation. I can understand why people say that the day of the week is irrelevant to success, but by the same token if trends say that you are winning 90% of the time on a Wednesday and 40% of the time of time on a Friday and the evaluator adjusts to this then surely that is a good thing? Just because days of the week isnt something that people have considered as an important element in the past doesnt mean that it cant be a huge factor in a system like this. Maybe that is one of the major factors the system has been so successful and if so then the evaluator is the key to all this. Just a thought
I agree. To me the Evaluator is key. Though exactly how it works is a bit of a mystery. It's not as unlikely as you seem to think that it takes in to account the trends of the two markets as moving averages play a part in the calculations. I appreciate you may not be familiar with moving averages but it would be the way it can spot divergence in trends.
Astarte3141
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Well I got in before all the comment about correlation and it seems to be a normal day. Long on DAX which has closed out so waiting for CAC to drop, which it has done so far but not by a huge amount.
SteveBanks
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Seeing as I'm not in a trade I'm going to go down the harbour and unwind watching the seals catching fish. Good luck to those with CAC open.
Interesting point about today being a no trade day. I've been using the enhanced profits plan since July and today it has given slightly larger than normal stakes!
One possible explanation is that I have only traded twice in the last six days, staying out when the markets looked flat, (which has been most days!) Maybe as I haven't shown so many losses recently the evaluator has just taken today as a normal day. I don't think it's the NF factor as it didn't take this into account in August or September.
Any thoughts?
One possible explanation is that I have only traded twice in the last six days, staying out when the markets looked flat, (which has been most days!) Maybe as I haven't shown so many losses recently the evaluator has just taken today as a normal day. I don't think it's the NF factor as it didn't take this into account in August or September.
Any thoughts?
chronicsys
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been trading enhanced every day since 3rd week of september .... today evaluator is suggesting half the usual stake size. had no idea it was 'capable' of suggesting no trades.
to be frank i thought today was a day we should DEFO be trading with the likely movement that will arise from the employment figures at 1.30 PM ?
to be frank i thought today was a day we should DEFO be trading with the likely movement that will arise from the employment figures at 1.30 PM ?
maverick131
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Just found this forum having read comments on MMR site. I believe that the intention is to go private with the DIT... can I be added to this when it occurs please? I have just started with the DIT system this week... 1 win, 2 losses and haven't traded today as NFP news due. Slightly concerned as I was a quite lengthy user of the Mark Rose SureFire/5MinFTSE system which was hopeless... despite the marketing of excellent results beforehand?
