Tennis Lays

[Getafix]

Not expecting Nadal to lose, however, I consider the odds to be well out of whack so I have to place the bet. This is the first < 1.1 odds bet recorded here and they will get beaten but probably not on first attempt. I think odds should realistically be about 1.06 so quite a big difference at this micro level!

 

[Getafix]

Domain, EstStart, LaySelection, AvgOddsObtained, TourName, Players
ATP, 04/03/2011 14:00:00, Philipp Kohlschreiber, 1.72, Davis Cup, World Group, 1R, CRO-GER, (Philipp Kohlschreiber v Ivan Dodig)

 

[Getafix]

Domain, EstStart, LaySelection, AvgOddsObtained, TourName, Players
ATP, 04/03/2011 14:00:00, Andrey Golubev, 1.57, Davis Cup, World Group, 1R, CZE-KAZ, (Andrey Golubev v Jan Hajek)

 

[Getafix]

Domain, EstStart, LaySelection, AvgOddsObtained, TourName, Players
ATP, 04/03/2011 13:30:00, Xavier Malisse, 5.6, Davis Cup, World Group, 1R, BEL-ESP, (Xavier Malisse v David Ferrer)

 

[Getafix]

Domain, EstStart, LaySelection, AvgOddsObtained, TourName, Players
ATP, 04/03/2011 16:00:00, Teimuraz Gabashvili, 2.01, Davis Cup, World Group, 1R, SWE-RUS, (Teimuraz Gabashvili v Joachim Johansson)

 

[Getafix]

Domain, EstStart, LaySelection, AvgOddsObtained, TourName, Players
ATP, 04/03/2011 14:00:00, Nicolas Massu, 9.2, Davis Cup, World Group, 1R, CHI-USA, (Nicolas Massu v Andy Roddick)

 

[Getafix]

COuld have got a far superior price for Nadal if I'd have waited ah well never mind, like I said, very unlikely to win anyway I give it 1/20 chance...following the value!

 

[Getafix]

Domain, EstStart, LaySelection, AvgOddsObtained, TourName, Players
ATP, 04/03/2011 14:00:00, David Nalbandian, 1.04, Davis Cup, World Group, 1R, ARG-ROU, (David Nalbandian v Adrian Ungur)

 

[Getafix]

Domain, EstStart, LaySelection, AvgOddsObtained, TourName, Players
WTA, 05/03/2011 11:15:00, Lucie Safarova, 1.61, Malaysian Open - Kuala Lumpur, (Lucie Safarova v Jarmila Groth)

 

[Getafix]

PnL: 15.42839652
ROI: 0.149790258
NoOfBets: 103

 

[Getafix]

Domain, EstStart, LaySelection, AvgOddsObtained, TourName, Players
WTA, 06/03/2011 12:00:00, Jelena Dokic, 2.74, Malaysian Open - Kuala Lumpur, (Jelena Dokic v Lucie Safarova)

 

[Getafix]

Domain, EstStart, LaySelection, AvgOddsObtained, TourName, Players
ATP, 06/03/2011 14:30:00, Jeremy Chardy, 1.26, Davis Cup, World Group, 1R, AUT-FRA, (Jeremy Chardy v Stefan Koubek)

 

[Getafix]

Domain, EstStart, LaySelection, AvgOddsObtained, TourName, Players
ATP, 06/03/2011 13:30:00, Rafael Nadal, 1.05, Davis Cup, World Group, 1R, BEL-ESP, (Rafael Nadal v Xavier Malisse)

 

[Getafix]

Trouble with these Davis cup ties is the players being changed at last minute. The Nadal bet was void because Malisse didn't play in the end (he was replaced by Rochus).

 

[Getafix]

Domain, EstStart, LaySelection, AvgOddsObtained, TourName, Players
WTA, 07/03/2011 18:00:00, Shuai Zhang, 1.46, BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells, (Shuai Zhang v Sophie Ferguson)

 

[arabianights]

not sure your ROI calcs make much sense... or put in another way they are not the convention you would use for investment really... am aware the way you're doing it is the way used in poker (for example) but imo the ROI should be done on the £10k starting stake.

 

[Getafix]

Domain, EstStart, LaySelection, AvgOddsObtained, TourName, Players
WTA, 07/03/2011 18:00:00, Anna Tatishvili, 2.04, BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells, (Anna Tatishvili v Laura Pous-Tio)

 

[Getafix]

Hi ArabianNights,

It is perhaps a matter of opinion. In my view the 10k has not yet been invested. Each bet is an addition to the investment so imo it is correct the way I am doing this. It is different to holding positions in the stock market as I would expect with that type of investment you would normally invest the full amount upfront. Here the ROI represents return per invested amount.

 

[Getafix]

I would be interested in seeing an example of how you think the ROI should be shown as pnl / 10000 is definitely wrong (if that's is what you would prefer?)!

 

[arabianights]

But your bet sizing is proportional to your bankroll...

I'm aware this is a convention, I see it in poker too, but it seems wrong... I understand the POINT - basically you're using it to quantify your edge... but in real world to replicate it one would want to know the return on the capital that will be allocated...