technical analysis in forex trading

[thebull27]

Hi guys I was wondering if you guys use technical analysis in forex trading.

I attached here a graph of the USD/AUD.

I believe the trend line has been broken and this last retracement to the trend line is a great position to sell AUD and buy USD.

I would like to hear what you guys think and to see some of your trading strategies posted here.

thanks a lot guys

 

[Mr.Black]

Hi guys I was wondering if you guys use technical analysis in forex trading.

I attached here a graph of the USD/AUD.

I believe the trend line has been broken and this last retracement to the trend line is a great position to sell AUD and buy USD.

I would like to hear what you guys think and to see some of your trading strategies posted here.

thanks a lot guys

It is Early to take Short position ....Because you are still in Up Trend .....You need to have violation of 0.7770 Level for confirmation of Trend Reversal....It's Look like AUD/USD is going to make New High.....from My point of view

 

[thebull27]

hi mr. black

could you please elaborate.

how would you read that chart, where would u go in and where would your stps and takes be?

It is Early to take Short position ....Because you are still in Up Trend .....You need to have violation of 0.7770 Level for confirmation of Trend Reversal....It's Look like AUD/USD is going to make New High.....from My point of view

 

[jacinto]

could you please elaborate.

how would you read that chart, where would u go in and where would your stps and takes be?

the swing low that mr black says has to be broken is a test of previous resistance turned support. if that is not broken as he correctly says, then there is no short.

by the way, use a weekly chart, and you will see that there is no trend break whatsoever.

even further, look at the monthly, and you will see that you are at the top of an ascending triangle. your short could be good to test the up trend of the triangle, but not much more if you ask me.

my 2 pips

j

 

[thebull27]

hmmmm ok.

well what I thought was going to happen, and and still might (although I understand that no one really agrees with me.)

is that price will reach around 7.7

the swing low that mr black says has to be broken is a test of previous resistance turned support. if that is not broken as he correctly says, then there is no short.

by the way, use a weekly chart, and you will see that there is no trend break whatsoever.

even further, look at the monthly, and you will see that you are at the top of an ascending triangle. your short could be good to test the up trend of the triangle, but not much more if you ask me.

my 2 pips

j

 

[Mr.Black]

hmmmm ok.

well what I thought was going to happen, and and still might (although I understand that no one really agrees with me.)

is that price will reach around 7.7

I was right ....it made a new High..... :cheesy:

 

[thebull27]

yes well, Iguess so although the day is not yet over

I was right ....it made a new High..... :cheesy:

 

[dbphoenix]

yes well, Iguess so although the day is not yet over

No guessing here. It made a new high.

If you define trend by trendlines, then you may find yourself on the wrong side of the trade pretty frequently. Try focusing on how the swings are related, i.e., higher highs, lower lows, etc. This will give you a much more tradeable view of traders' intent.

Db

 

[thebull27]

hi db

could you please post a graph that explains what you are saying?

thanks

No guessing here. It made a new high.

If you define trend by trendlines, then you may find yourself on the wrong side of the trade pretty frequently. Try focusing on how the swings are related, i.e., higher highs, lower lows, etc. This will give you a much more tradeable view of traders' intent.

Db

 

[dbphoenix]

could you please post a graph that explains what you are saying?

thanks

Using the previously-posted chart, potential S is established last March, potential R a month later. Since then there have been no new highs and no new lows. Therefore, whatever trades are available are within the range. Since price rarely moves in a direct route from S to R and back again, you're left with trading the fluctuations, or oscillations, or swings. Trendlines aren't going to be of much help. What will matter more is whether or not a given swing point is breached.

Db

 

[dbphoenix]

After potential R, price makes a higher low (first red dot), followed by another. This may define an uptrend if a new high is made.

 

[dbphoenix]

However, price consolidates below the previous high and tests both the last swing point and the attempt to reach R.

 

[jacinto]

However, price consolidates below the previous high and tests both the last swing point and the attempt to reach R.

clear example of resistance turned support

j

 

[dbphoenix]

Price then breaks down from this consolidation but finds S at a previous swing point. It then makes a new attempt at a new high in October, fails to breach, forms a higher low and tries again in November, this time succeeding.

What matters, then, is not "trend" per se but that buying interest is coming in at higher and higher levels. Whether or not there is sufficient buying interest to continue to propel the price is unknowable. But if one is going to short at R, he must at least be prepared to SAR.

Db

 

[thebull27]

thanks DB

how do you identifiy a potential swing point in advance?

Using the previously-posted chart, potential S is established last March, potential R a month later. Since then there have been no new highs and no new lows. Therefore, whatever trades are available are within the range. Since price rarely moves in a direct route from S to R and back again, you're left with trading the fluctuations, or oscillations, or swings. Trendlines aren't going to be of much help. What will matter more is whether or not a given swing point is breached.

Db

 

[dbphoenix]

what do you mean by breaching swing points?

Breaking through.

how do you identifiy a potential swing point in advance?

You don't. But then you don't have to. Just trade what's in front of you.

Db

 

[thebull27]

for instance in this case

the aud/usd is in a weekly/monthly resistance. wouldnt it be a good bet to short the position at this point with a stoploss after the resistance?

Breaking through.



You don't. But then you don't have to. Just trade what's in front of you.

Db

 

[dbphoenix]

the aud/usd is in a weekly/monthly resistance. wouldnt it be a good bet to short the position at this point with a stoploss after the resistance?

Depends on what you mean by "good bet" and "short the position at this point". What do you expect out of the trade? Fractions of a point? Or do you want to ride it all the way back to S? If the latter, do you have a reversal signal to look for? Do you want to short right now or wait for price to stop you into the trade? What if price doesn't do what you expect? Where's your stop? Are you prepared to go long on a break through R? If the latter, what happens if price drops back to R? Or below? Where's your stop? Or do you plan to add to the position? Are you going to buy or short all in or do you plan to scale in?

There are other questions to address, but this will do for a start.

Db

 

[charley88]

hello t2w

what is meaning of SAR in dbp's post #14 please?

c88

 

[dbphoenix]

hello t2w

what is meaning of SAR in dbp's post #14 please?

c88

Stop And Reverse, i.e., close the current position and open an opposite position.

Db