Taishara's GY / GU Trading Journal

[Taishara]

To continue with the December 15 saga that has caused whitening of my hair (not something I can really afford at the moment!) is that same divergence that was setting up on GU... it happened and I missed the GU entry. I happened to notice it was perfectly setting up on the GY. Ok... I have spent a lot of time there. Take it.

I entered and figured my stop loss... I put it in my spreadsheet and completely entered the *CHART* price for a stop loss. 145.25. In the trading station that should be 145.34. So poof... I stop out in 2 minutes. Didn't even know what happened...

Within 2 or 3 minutes, I realize the trade is setting up again. I get back in the trade in a position that is 4 pips to my better than my last trade. All to the good.

The trade shuffles around for a while, but generally going my way. Then it kind of hit me the mistake that I made... and just a variety of other factors and a basic level of complete panic sets in.

Ultimately I decided to get out of the trade with a +25 instead of letting it ride to a good exit point. 1 minute picture attached.

I recognized it then and now for what it was. It was total fear. I think the fact I was aware of that made it more scary... because I started questioning if I was even AWARE of a turn around against me. So I got out for a profit on this trade bringing my day to a resulting 2 wins 2 losses resulting in 10 pip profit.

Looking back at that exit, I think I would have exited at the close of the 03:25 for 144.67 rather than at 144.78 in the 03:23 due to the divergence and the GU corresponding behavior of not getting lower lows. So not even much more potential.

But I would like to grow into a place that I am not hyperventilating about trades!

 

[Yamato]

I have a feeling your rules are not univocal yet. That is to say, I have a feeling that your hyperventilation is directly proportional to how much discretionality your system has. Would you agree?

 

[Taishara]

Well, I am not sure. I think my rules are pretty specific and rigid. I think my hyperventilation tonight was because of two things. 1 I had just gotten out of a trade the other way on the GU and was seeing this set up on the GY. So I felt rushed. Then secondly, I made the stupid stop loss mistake and it really flustered me.

My spreadsheet requires me to enter the chart entry price. It then calculates both chart and TS stop loss. I misread it because I let myself get into a my *hurry* and the result was I put the wrong number in the trading station.

So my performance really flustered me and I was never able to pull it back.

 

[Taishara]

I think another mistake I am currently making is having both GU and GY charts open. For some days they really act as a confirmation of one another. I am finding, however, that on days like today, they are not really being confirmations of each other, and it is confusing.

So I am going to create a work space that has just the GU and trade that for a while.

 

[Taishara]

Ok... thinking more about your post... I think you are definitely on the mark when I am talking about how I EXIT a successful trade. I do not yet have great rules for that, or at least I do not feel comfortable with the rules I have identified. But I still think the extreme flustered state was due to my mistakes and being rushed. Then if you add in that not super comfortable feeling with having an exit strategy, I think it tipped me over the edge.

Thank you Travis for asking such an insightful question! This gives me something that I can really work on! :clap:

 

[Yamato]

Ok... thinking more about your post... I think you are definitely on the mark when I am talking about how I EXIT a successful trade. I do not yet have great rules for that, or at least I do not feel comfortable with the rules I have identified. But I still think the extreme flustered state was due to my mistakes and being rushed. Then if you add in that not super comfortable feeling with having an exit strategy, I think it tipped me over the edge.

Thank you Travis for asking such an insightful question! This gives me something that I can really work on! :clap:

Yeah, listen to my non-profitable trader's advice (I am not profitable yet, as I told you before). I found that the more univocal and unequivocal your rules are, the less anxiety you have. But in order to have univocal rules first you need to be positive that they work. If you don't know whether such rules work, then it makes sense to break them (as you did), but it would make even more sense to not have such rules.

How do you find out if they work? The only way I could do this (but there may be other ways) is by back-testing them on tradestation. This tells you at least that they worked in the past, which is all we care about actually, because even in discretionary trading, you're expecting things to work again because they worked in the past. Regardless of what some of these discretionary traders will tell you (that you can't predict the future and that the past won't repeat itself, etcetera), this is what everyone does: we invest expecting the future to be like the past.

As I said, I am unprofitable, but I am quite confident about these things I said. But I could still be wrong about everything.

 

[timsk]

Hi Taishara,
Welcome to T2W and congratulations on your journal which is looking very promising. By that I mean you appear to be open minded to constructive ideas and suggestions and very prepared to provide a complete and open description of your trading plan. That's a winning combination in itself.

I've only skimmed over the thread to date to get a general feel of your style and an overall impression of who you are and where you're coming from etc. With that in mind, the comment that follows may well be wide of the mark - apologies in advance if this is the case. My impression is that your focus is biased towards your trade set up and entry. Your problems - as you yourself have noted - for the most part appear to be with trade management and trade exit especially.

Once you're filled and in the market, the set up and entry triggers are history. Now it's a case of - 'IF the market does X, I'll do Y'. The entries are relatively easy in as much as we're only looking for certain market conditions. If they're not present - we don't enter the market. We can control when to enter and when to stay out. However, when we're in, anything can happen and we are forced to pay attention and be ready for everything the market throws at us. If you are prepared for any eventuality - be it the whole screen turning red because of a 9/11 type of incident, through to your trading platform crashing, then you'll find it much easier. As a ex heavyweight T2W member used to say, the full extent of your emotional response will be to look on calmly at what's happening and think to yourself: 'that's interesting'. There'll be no anxiety and no euphoria. And you won't ever be wondering what to do - whether to stay in or get out - you'll know instantly what to do. It seems to me that you just need to extend the tight focus and execution that you apply to the set up and entry to the trade management and exit and you'll be fine.
Tim.

 

[Taishara]

Travis, again thank you for your inputs!

The only back testing I have ever done (or will do) is the time I have personally observed my strategy work. It is how I developed my entries and that was time consuming and fraught with many stop out events. The result is that I feel comfortable with my entries at this point. (except when I am freaked out about stupid mistakes that I have taken steps to not do and STILL make the mistake and that on top of the conversation with the hubby on when I should consider getting a real job again )

-- side bar -- I do not back test because I am not a very trusting soul and unless I personally prove it to myself I rarely truly believe it. So I want to prove to myself that the context works AND I can actually execute it before I call it mine. Same with exits, and I have not gotten enough experience yet on this area. -- end side bar --

My rules for exits are basically the same as the entries, only the other way. But due to my lack of personal experience with lots and lots of successful trades at this time, psychology is impacting me right now. So this sounds like I contradicted myself... but I think I do have rules, I just don't trust them yet. I think I am still deep in that place of proving to myself that the rules I have are all I need.

The psychology that is getting in my way is a few things... I have lost way more times than I have won over time, so I have that "oh I don't want to lose this!" cloud over my head. So I definitely do not want to lose a trade that I am winning!

So, since I use my experience to identify my rules, do I add a rule to protect winnings that I have? I do not scale my position out... I am all in or all out. The downside of protecting my winnings, is when it does go further my direction, I always feel regret. On the flip side of that... if it goes my way, but does not quite make it to my limit and I end up losing because of that, I feel MORE regret.

Or do I let it ride? Contrary to the exit early to protect winnings question is waiting to exit at the right moment to exit. This is what I was taught to do and what I have seen works when I do not shut out what the market is telling me with fear. But again, I need to establish more successful execution of my context to build up the confidence that I need to do this without a lot of fear.

The fear of losing if I let it ride is overwhelming me right now. It is what keeps me asking... do I need another rule? do I need to do something else? And just the fact that I am doing that, does not do wonderful things to my confidence.

On the other hand... the fact that I am having successful trades enough to start going through this for EXIT rules ROCKS! :clap:

Another factor is I know how much I need to make on a weekly basis in an ideal situation to get to where I need to be. This is also coming in to play when I think about how to exit the trade.

Just so many factors that are playing around in my head, that I am not sure yet where I want to go with my exits. I can make arguments for and against all the options on the table!

As far as today went, I made the conscious decision to close the trade and be happy with what I have because I recognized the fact I was gripped by fear of losing. I know myself enough to know when I get that stressed, I stop taking in what is going on. Time to walk away and go to the cafeteria and get a cup of coffee if I was still working full time. Now that I am doing this full time, I just get on my nifty journal and do some analysis to help me think through these things!

 

[Taishara]

Hi Taishara,
My impression is that your focus is biased towards your trade set up and entry. Your problems - as you yourself have noted - for the most part appear to be with trade management and trade exit especially.

If you are prepared for any eventuality - be it the whole screen turning red because of a 9/11 type of incident, through to your trading platform crashing, then you'll find it much easier. As a ex heavyweight T2W member used to say, the full extent of your emotional response will be to look on calmly at what's happening and think to yourself: 'that's interesting'. There'll be no anxiety and no euphoria. And you won't ever be wondering what to do - whether to stay in or get out - you'll know instantly what to do. It seems to me that you just need to extend the tight focus and execution that you apply to the set up and entry to the trade management and exit and you'll be fine.
Tim.

Tim,

Thank you for the welcome! I am flattered that you read my thread!

I quoted the parts of your post that I think are EXACTLY what I need to be working on!

From Mark Douglas' Trading in the Zone, I need to embrace the fact that anything can happen and I do not need to know what is going to happen next to be successful.

I am working towards this goal and working on how do I exit... do I look for opposite set ups? Do I take a flat x pips and walk away? How do I do that? I know how to get in now... but how do I get out?

I think you hit the nail right on the head with the areas that I am working on!

Thank you for wording it much better than I did a post ago!

Tracy

 

[Taishara]

Oh hey! I just got a promotion from Rookie to Junior Member! Woohoo!

 

[Yamato]

Travis, again thank you for your inputs!

The only back testing I have ever done (or will do) is the time I have personally observed my strategy work. It is how I developed my entries and that was time consuming and fraught with many stop out events. The result is that I feel comfortable with my entries at this point. (except when I am freaked out about stupid mistakes that I have taken steps to not do and STILL make the mistake and that on top of the conversation with the hubby on when I should consider getting a real job again )

-- side bar -- I do not back test because I am not a very trusting soul and unless I personally prove it to myself I rarely truly believe it. So I want to prove to myself that the context works AND I can actually execute it before I call it mine. Same with exits, and I have not gotten enough experience yet on this area. -- end side bar --

My rules for exits are basically the same as the entries, only the other way. But due to my lack of personal experience with lots and lots of successful trades at this time, psychology is impacting me right now. So this sounds like I contradicted myself... but I think I do have rules, I just don't trust them yet. I think I am still deep in that place of proving to myself that the rules I have are all I need.

The psychology that is getting in my way is a few things... I have lost way more times than I have won over time, so I have that "oh I don't want to lose this!" cloud over my head. So I definitely do not want to lose a trade that I am winning!

So, since I use my experience to identify my rules, do I add a rule to protect winnings that I have? I do not scale my position out... I am all in or all out. The downside of protecting my winnings, is when it does go further my direction, I always feel regret. On the flip side of that... if it goes my way, but does not quite make it to my limit and I end up losing because of that, I feel MORE regret.

Or do I let it ride? Contrary to the exit early to protect winnings question is waiting to exit at the right moment to exit. This is what I was taught to do and what I have seen works when I do not shut out what the market is telling me with fear. But again, I need to establish more successful execution of my context to build up the confidence that I need to do this without a lot of fear.

The fear of losing if I let it ride is overwhelming me right now. It is what keeps me asking... do I need another rule? do I need to do something else? And just the fact that I am doing that, does not do wonderful things to my confidence.

On the other hand... the fact that I am having successful trades enough to start going through this for EXIT rules ROCKS! :clap:

Another factor is I know how much I need to make on a weekly basis in an ideal situation to get to where I need to be. This is also coming in to play when I think about how to exit the trade.

Just so many factors that are playing around in my head, that I am not sure yet where I want to go with my exits. I can make arguments for and against all the options on the table!

As far as today went, I made the conscious decision to close the trade and be happy with what I have because I recognized the fact I was gripped by fear of losing. I know myself enough to know when I get that stressed, I stop taking in what is going on. Time to walk away and go to the cafeteria and get a cup of coffee if I was still working full time. Now that I am doing this full time, I just get on my nifty journal and do some analysis to help me think through these things!

Ok, at this point don't see what I write as a lecture, because I am compulsive gambler. I am just reminding myself some concepts. So accept my modest opinions (pretend there's humbleness in my tone, even though it doesn't show much).

You say you have rules but you can change them, but not only that, you say you can even change them during the trade? Did I get that right? If you change the rules when the markets are closed is one thing. Another thing is if you change them while you're in a trade. But maybe that is not what you do, so sorry for sounding so harsh.

I am just talking to myself. I always knew I didn't have rules, because once you have a set of rules and you don't follow them blindly, they're not rules. Saying I have rules but I can change them during a trade, is like saying your rule is doing whatever you want.

As I said, I am just thinking out loud. Don't take this as interference with your thread and feel free to ignore this post.

 

[Black Swan]

Oh hey! I just got a promotion from Rookie to Junior Member! Woohoo!

Now you're in the gang the madness unleashes... Welcome, good journal thread. My 'favourite' currency pairs are cable and GBP/JPY. GBP/JPY, it's a beast, it's expensive as a spread, but has to be done...been long since 15:00 (gmt) yesterday. good luck with the journal...

 

[Taishara]

Travis - I humbly and gratefully accept all your inputs! I am working through this myself so having someone that is willing to question what I am writing down is so extremely helpful I cannot even say!

About the changing the rules comment - even during a trade - I am trying to find my correct set of rules. That long winded comment really was just trying to show the turmoil in my brain while trying to setting down on my strategy for exits. There are so many factors I am trying to consider my poor brain is having a melt down!

I think what I am struggling with is "do I exit on my opposite trade setting up?" This is what I was taught to do and what my rules say. So I can exit on an 1 minute divergence context going the other way. Realistically, a ZLR is not an expected set up as an exit trigger because I would already be stopped out (or have missed the 1 min divergence). Until that happens, I do not exit unless stopped out. The conscious part of my brain raises a red flag here, because that context does not always set up, even when there is a price direction shift. That alone makes me not trust it as much as I would like.

Or do I exit on a flat rate (say 25 or 45 or whatever the number is)? I know what my weekly (ideal) need number is, so I can do this. But right now the greedy part in me says wails when it moves an additional 100 pips because I left pips on the table. This in itself is a psychology problem!

Or... is there a better exit trigger I have yet to find. Examples might include: seeing price show lower highs on the 1 or maybe 5 minute chart; possibly with CCI divergence; possibly 5 minute stochastic divergence. These are obviously yet to be identified let alone tested. Though no follow through (not getting higher highs / lower lows) is currently in observation. Thing with that idea is I need to factor in how much weight the trend is on the 30 minute in addition to the 1 minute inputs I am getting.

One tip reminder my mentor gave me was once I am in a trade, stop looking at the 1 minute chart... it will drive you crazy.

Right now I am toying around with a plan of this:

Exit 1 - if the opposite set up occurs, exit.
Exit 2 - If profit is greater than X pips, move stop loss to X pips. (I have that number predefined). Continue to hunt for ideal exit.
Exit 3 - if profit is 2X, exit.

So until I get this as nailed down as I feel my entrances are, I foresee more hyperventilation!

Hopefully I can minimize my performance mistakes that make me flustered such as monitoring 2 currency pairs, incorrectly entering stop loss, etc. That will help as well!

As always, I appreciate the questions you have asked! You have really made me do a lot of great thinking work here!

Gotta go wake the kids up for the day though! Until tomorrow!

Tai

 

[Taishara]

Now you're in the gang the madness unleashes... Welcome, good journal thread. My 'favourite' currency pairs are cable and GBP/JPY. GBP/JPY, it's a beast, it's expensive as a spread, but has to be done...been long since 15:00 (gmt) yesterday. good luck with the journal...

Black Swan - Thank you for the welcome! I only look at the GBP / US (GU) and GBP/JPY (GY). I am making a consicous decision to set the GY aside for a while. My heart just can't handle it right at the moment!!

It is good to meet you!

Tai

 

[timsk]

Tracey & Travis,
As you're both actively engaged in keeping journals and new to T2W, you may not have come across two excellent articles on the subject - both by Brett Steenbarger. If you like Mark Douglas, you'll love this guy - he's the dog's cajones! Check 'em out:
When Trading Journals Don’t Work
Making Trading Journals Work for You
Enjoy!
Tim.

 

[Black Swan]

Tracey & Travis,
As you're both actively engaged in keeping journals and new to T2W, you may not have come across two excellent articles on the subject - both by Brett Steenbarger. If you like Mark Douglas, you'll love this guy - he's the dog's cajones! Check 'em out:
When Trading Journals Don’t Work
Making Trading Journals Work for You
Enjoy!
Tim.

Travis new....? :-0

 

[Taishara]

Timsk -
Thank you for the links!
Considering my background in engineering and recently process and quality, I most gravitated to the stats section of the articles.

I created my journal here for because I would like to meet new people that are traders (rather than people who want to sell me their ebook) and have a place to have some accountability (even if only to myself out in public just in case no one did read this thread). When I started I did not especially consider this to be the sole location of storing my trading records. I can see how that would work though!

I have always had a detailed trading log in Excel (or lately I use Open Office since its free). I find that many of the statistics, while not specifically gathered there are already available! Woohoo for me.

Just in the few posts I have already made, I found specific pieces of information that were not in my trading log, so I have made a conscious effort to include that information in the log. Now I can accentuate it even further.

I will strive to include the information in my posts. I am only going to go back to the beginning of November because before that I do not feel my strategy was stable enough to produce much meaningful data. But, after a very concerted effort in late October, I got my act together and have what I am considering a starting point.

I will do that analysis over the next few days as time permits with the holiday activities and preparing for my folks to come and stay for almost 3 weeks. I will post the stats here and keep it up to date.

I cannot imagine not using my excel spreadsheet for my trading log because it has many calculations built into it, but I have not put as much text / analysis into it as I am starting to do here. I will have to find a way to merge the information so I do not have to have something I need to go to two locations for. I will have to spend some thinking time on that one!

These articles were really great and I am so thankful that you shared the link with me!

Tai

 

[timsk]

Travis new....? :-0

Oops, my mistake, new to journaling only - apologies travis!

 

[Taishara]

Ok... My December 16 journal updates.

Firstly, I am happy to report 2 trades, NO hyperventilation! :clap:

Just a tiny divergence (no pun intended ) from trading. I want to thank Travis and my mentor who I emailed back and forth with a bit for taking the time to ask me insightful questions. The questions asked really made me think, and it helped a lot! The time you spent with me is sincerely appreciated!

Ok... on to the day.

Firstly, I missed a perfect ZLR set up on the GU at 1:14ish. It went from 1.6243 to a cool 1.6273 before I got a exit trigger. Blow it off... its gone.

I saw a sell trigger at about 1:31ish and did not take it because I was thinking bullish trend starting after that huge blue candle from 0100.

I saw a ZLR set up for a BUY. I took the trigger at 01:46, getting in at 1.6257/1.6262. My SL was at 1.6237. I rode through an immediate move in my direction to then sink down to never see that level again in this trade. I did see a support at 1.6243 and 1.6240. I added those lines in pink. Even though the trade was under water, I did not exit as I did not see an opposite trade set up. The trade went back up to being above water. I saw a divergence set up at 02:43 and exited for a +3 profit.

On the 30 minute chart I did notice a 5/13 CWB set up (my former context) that confirmed the buy, but I did not note it until after I was in the buy. The TD points are marked in yellow and the wedge line is in pink on the 30 minute chart.

I also noted that the 5 minute slow stochastic was established extreme and (at that minute) hooking back. Though, again, I did not check this first. I use this as a confirmation. It is not part of my rules (as I find it redundant), but it is a "warm fuzzy" when it is in place.

I have the 1 minute and 30 minute charts attached. The 30 minute picture was created after the fact as you can obviously see.

Tai

 

[Taishara]

Since I had seen that divergence set up, I continued to watch and saw a SELL set up and entered at 02:45.

-- When I mention a candle, I mean the close of that candle. --

At this point the 30 minute is indicating bearish direction.

I entered at 02:45 at 1.6260.

Through the trade that ranged up to the test the top range established at the 2:45 timeframe down to the low for the day at 1.6240. I did not see an exit trigger until 03:44. Due to the strength of the 30 minute candle, I chose to wait for another push down. However, when CCI broke above -100, I decided to exit. I got out at 03:49 with +15. Had I waited 3 more minutes, I would have gotten 9 more pips. *shrugs*

I did not have a trigger to enter the BUY after the divergence got me out, so I did not profit in any of that upward movement. I am ok with that because I followed my rules.:clap:

The pictures I attached show the 1 minute with the follow up that shows the upward movement. To me this is just more evidence that my exit strategy is good. Sure, I didn't execute perfectly on the exit, but if I had done it as per my rules, I would have only gotten 1 pip fewer than the complete downward movement for this time. This is powerful ammo to the trust factor for my exit strategy rules. :smart: