TA debunked?

[Splitlink]

The chart is a footprint of the market. Everyone predicts, that's needless to say. Even if I am looking at the right most candle right now, I am also predicting. The market 10 days ago and now could be in an uptrend. So I am predicting that the trend will continue. Yes, i am predictive, so is everybody else reading charts or using fundamentals.

Yes, ok, I see your point, but accurate prediction is going to be trend as shown in pasrt performance. I try to predict correctly, too, but nothing that I can see from a chart gives me gives me complete confidence. Otherwise, I would not use stops.

It seems to me that we do not want to face the facts because, otherwise, what else is there? That philosophy makes losers of a lot of people.

 

[ChocolateDigestive]

And the forum is not a place for you to go around insulting people and attempting to belittle them. Still, you seem to enjoy doing that, even though it usually ends up backfiring.



Correct & that is EXACTLY why I'm not mentioning that on the thread It is irrelevant to the conversation as it's not being discussed.

You just made assumptions loaded with biases as to why I posted here.

I understand why you follow me around here, I do actually take it as a compliment.

Thanks for mentioning that I sell products, it always ups the hit count on my site when someone points that out. Most people fail to notice



Correct - although in agreeing with you, I guess I'm trying to push my products.

Ha ha. Follow you around dream on. Contrary to what you say I do not try and belittle people I only seek to expose vendors with hidden agendas. Re - comments about your website hit count. This just confirms to me what you are up to. Make a few posts then watch the website hits come in. You carry on counting your website hits mate. The rest of us continue to seek to improve their trading,

Mods - can we get this blatant vendoring to stop he has admitted to posting purely for hits on his website. This is why some call it the zoo.

 

[Splitlink]

Can someone please tell me where everyone gets this ridiculous idea that TA is predictive ? Is it written in a book somewhere ?, is there a website where this nonsense is being promoted ?

Where did this ridiculous urban myth start, and why does an alleged trading forum allow it to continue ?

I could point you to thousands of books, articles, and websites where there is clear and definite proof provided that TA is non predictive. There's a mountain of evidence to support that view.

Despite all of the evidence to the contrary, trading forums are filled with people discussing the predictive capabilities of TA. What is it about forums that lead to such irrational behavior ?

We predict, more often than not, incorrectly. The market predicts nothing. However, the human being what he is, believes that he can get it right.

 

[the hare]

We predict, more often than not, incorrectly.

Lets assume they are wrong 60% of the time. If that where the case, you could improve the accuracy of predictions just by tossing a coin. Most peoples trading performance would not be improved by tossing a coin (it probably wouldn't change for better or worse).

Better still, you could fade your own predictions (or get the wife to do it) and be right 60% of the time (but they still wouldn't make money)

Its often been said that you could give most people the next days high and low and they still couldn't make money.

Making money has nothing to do with prediction (unless you make your living reading fortunes on Brighton seafront)

There is something very weird about trading forums, either people are deliberately muddying pools, or vendoring, or lulzing, but no one ever discusses anything remotely to do with making money. I used to find it funny, but now I'm not so sure.

 

[wackypete2]

Lets assume they are wrong 60% of the time. If that where the case, you could improve the accuracy of predictions just by tossing a coin. Most peoples trading performance would not be improved by tossing a coin (it probably wouldn't change for better or worse).

Better still, you could fade your own predictions (or get the wife to do it) and be right 60% of the time (but they still wouldn't make money)

Its often been said that you could give most people the next days high and low and they still couldn't make money.

Making money has nothing to do with prediction (unless you make your living reading fortunes on Brighton seafront)

There is something very weird about trading forums, either people are deliberately muddying pools, or vendoring, or lulzing, but no one ever discusses anything remotely to do with making money. I used to find it funny, but now I'm not so sure.

When I'm in a trade I just close my eyes, squeeze my butt cheeks, and pray.
Works 50% of the time

Peter

 

[the hare]

Works 50% of the time

That should be more than sufficient

 

[DionysusToast]

Ha ha. Follow you around dream on. Contrary to what you say I do not try and belittle people I only seek to expose vendors with hidden agendas. Re - comments about your website hit count. This just confirms to me what you are up to. Make a few posts then watch the website hits come in. You carry on counting your website hits mate. The rest of us continue to seek to improve their trading,

We had this saying in the playground - "you only pull the hair of the girls you want to kiss"

So - carry on, I know what it means when you do this.

Mods - can we get this blatant vendoring to stop he has admitted to posting purely for hits on his website. This is why some call it the zoo.

I really hate to break this to you.

A number of the mods think you are a d1ck.

Hope this helps.

 

[ChocolateDigestive]

We had this saying in the playground - "you only pull the hair of the girls you want to kiss"

I can assure you I don't want to kiss you and I certainly dont want to purchase any of your products

I really hate to break this to you.

A number of the mods think you are a d1ck..

lolol. Nice to see you using the forum 'like a mature adult' surprising given your recent posting below. Is it really any surprise the mods dont like me, given this site makes money from advertising and vendors. Yeah that ChocD is a d1ck isn't he yeah, PBoyles yeah what a d1ick. I can just imagine them in the T2W canteen now.

Is there some reason you can't discuss an issue like a mature adult?

You are just peppering the forum with bu775hit from your veneer of understanding. The sort of numptyism that is golden like:

(i) Why are spreads safer? on the spread thread

(ii) blatant mistruths about HFT, clearly obvious to someone who knows his stuff on HFT that you are a numpty. your 'tape reading' tools are evidence of this, on a nas5ty retail platform please.....

(ii) but worst of all on this thread basically saying TA doesn't work when YOU DO NOT KNOW THAT FOR A FACT again you are talking 5hite and it's all about an agenda to push your tape reading services.

since you are called me a d1ck by proxy I call you out as a dirty vendor sexpat.

back to checking your website hits please.

 

[ChocolateDigestive]

TA is the science of looking at effect hoping to find cause.

This is absolute nonsense. Here is the the definition of TA as provided by investopedia.

A method of evaluating securities by analyzing statistics generated by market activity, such as past prices and volume. Technical analysts do not attempt to measure a security's intrinsic value, but instead use charts and other tools to identify patterns that can suggest future activity.

TA is nothing to do with finding cause.

On a thread titled 'TA debunked' I just wanted to set the record straight. Don't be fooled by people who have different agendas. A counter argument will now be posted (together with insults) to tell you that you should be searching for 'cause' and the way to do this is by purchasing said persons products.

good trading to you.

 

[forker]

Will you 2 get a room....

 

[ChocolateDigestive]

Will you 2 get a room....

Do you mean a room like The Price Action Room run by Joel Parker that the Toast promotes on his website? (Welcome to the Price Action Room)

seems Joel has got some nice discounts at the moment:

Tape reading Bundle with our new Time & Sales WAS $1695 now $979.

no seriously the main issue I have is the Toast's constant breaching of Trade2Win's advertising guidelines:
_________________________________________________________________

4. NO ADVERTISING

4.1 You agree that not to use the Forums or the Private Mail system to advertise products or solicit trade without T2W's written consent.
_________________________________________________________________

see it's all about soliciting trade, in his language website hits. This 5hit needs to be cleaned up, there are other vendors on here who are long term posters who don't push their products in such an underhand way. Not the 1st forum he has been rumbled on either, they rumbled him on Big Mike's.

You see for Toast it's all a game, more exposure, more website hits. Constant agenda is all methods are rubbish (accept his), TA that's rubbish, pin bars rubbish anything he just jumps on it, crushes it seeking to generate traffic back to his products. He Toast what's not rubbish then? well you could try tape reading but you will need my tools to be able to tape read properly..........

He is on a par with Black Swan et al who push a certain agenda and add nothing.....

 

[Lightning McQueen]

Do you mean a room like The Price Action Room run by Joel Parker that the Toast promotes on his website? (Welcome to the Price Action Room)

seems Joel has got some nice discounts at the moment:

Tape reading Bundle with our new Time & Sales WAS $1695 now $979.

no seriously the main issue I have is the Toast's constant breaching of Trade2Win's advertising guidelines:
_________________________________________________________________

4. NO ADVERTISING

4.1 You agree that not to use the Forums or the Private Mail system to advertise products or solicit trade without T2W's written consent.
_________________________________________________________________

see it's all about soliciting trade, in his language website hits. This 5hit needs to be cleaned up, there are other vendors on here who are long term posters who don't push their products in such an underhand way. Not the 1st forum he has been rumbled on either, they rumbled him on Big Mike's.

You see for Toast it's all a game, more exposure, more website hits. Constant agenda is all methods are rubbish (accept his), TA that's rubbish, pin bars rubbish anything he just jumps on it, crushes it seeking to generate traffic back to his products. He Toast what's not rubbish then? well you could try tape reading but you will need my tools to be able to tape read properly..........

He is on a par with Black Swan et al who push a certain agenda and add nothing.....

there would be less of an issue (and vendor postings) if they (t2w) turned back the clock and decoupled the home page linking via the vendor badge.

to their credit they did turn off the vendor badge vendor is open for business light, but seem to have drawn the line there and appear to have refused further vendor action

 

[wackypete2]

there would be less of an issue (and vendor postings) if they (t2w) turned back the clock and decoupled the home page linking via the vendor badge.

to their credit they did turn off the vendor badge vendor is open for business light, but seem to have drawn the line there and appear to have refused further vendor action

I've heard tale of a new sheriff in town at t2w....bring the issues up.

Peter

 

[Lightning McQueen]

I've heard tale of a new sheriff in town at t2w....bring the issues up.

Peter

it's in a feedback thread.

hopefully all the recent'sh past feedback would have been read and digested already :whistling

 

[wackypete2]

it's in a feedback thread.

hopefully all the recent'sh past feedback would have been read and digested ignored already :whistling

I fixed it for you

Peter

 

[ChocolateDigestive]

there would be less of an issue (and vendor postings) if they (t2w) turned back the clock and decoupled the home page linking via the vendor badge.

to their credit they did turn off the vendor badge vendor is open for business light, but seem to have drawn the line there and appear to have refused further vendor action

I notice that Mr McQueen. It is a real shame as other forums do not suffer from this blight to the same extent as T2W. Take Elite Trader, there are a lot of serious traders on there and if someone is suspected of pushing their products or soliciting they are jumped upon right away. Big Mike's the same. These people should be separated off so they can have their own section to peddle their wares, they can have the FAP turbos, courses and EA's. Of course a lot of these vendors will deny they are advertising or soliciting but they constantly push the agenda, they know they cannot directly advertise.

This is greatly evidenced on Barjon's money machine thread where a vendor has pushed his agenda hard and attacked Barjon repeatedly to minute detail when Barjon has clearly said it's his play account. It's also not fair on newbie traders who are being sidetracked and in some cases set back years by the posting of this 'intelligent nonsense'.

This thread is another example of said individual coming on and posting absolute nonsense about TA, absolute drivvle. 2 of the most successful traders I know personally use TA (as part of their trading), one works for a large investment bank prop desk.

Why anyone would interest or tolerate the postings of a trader who pushes software at $349 a pop is beyond me.

I hope T2W reconsider and separate of these vendors. It would be good for the site.

 

[Lightning McQueen]

I fixed it for you

Peter

:clap:

well i'm hoping not.

but at least the new guy (if indeed read?) will know the thorny areas and if to be ignored, he'll at least know where the landmines are and where not to tread

 

[bbmac]

Speaking of the new guy that Sharky has handed over to, - you wonder what his motivation is - I mean you wouldn't have this T2W job for a gold clock. Not just this inconsistent vendor policy but the reputation of Lulz and it being a trading free zone to a great extent - it has passed it's ' sell by date ' and with the change of behaviour/expectations in users of internet forums since the 'heyday' - it seems an impossible task. You wonder what he is tasked with - Is it improving the site user experience from a site users point of view or a more mercantile/commercial objective of upping the income/profit from the site ? Basically thetwo seem / almost cetainly are incompatibe and probably won't be able to be achieved together and as T2W is a commercial concern it seems a no brainer. I think there is a direct correlation re achieving an increase in the income/profit and a dumbing down in the site users experience.

I was asked recently whether I wanted to buy a well known trading board and I know of at least one other that is actively trying to be sold with no success - I of course said no as the figures don't stack up in any way you look at them.

Also, none of my business but you also wonder whether there was a financial deal done to bring thhe new guy on board re Sharky letting some eqiuity go ? By the way Sharky handing over to some one else was I think the right thing to do and probably too long over due but I fear that the ' boat has already ' sailed and we as users won't see any real increase in valuable user experience. Part of this is the very nature of these things - when you are a newbie and know nothing you ask questions like ' how long is an ma,? ' ' how much can I earn spread betting ? ' and ' what re these pinbar thingys ' but when you get profitable / or just as you get more experienced and have contributed positively over the years you realise that although this is probably a necessary part of the learning curve - you've answered these and other basic questions and their derivatives so may time and know how inane they are - you can't be bothered any more. You then turn mostly to Lulz as it occupys the periods between set-ups and there is no more to give that isn't just repitition to a great extent and your focus is your own trading as a business not the non profti making business of always answering questions that either are inane by their nature or have become so because of the amount of time they or their said derivatives have been asked.


G/L

 

[wackypete2]

You see for Toast it's all a game, more exposure, more website hits. Constant agenda is all methods are rubbish (accept his), TA that's rubbish, pin bars rubbish anything he just jumps on it, crushes it seeking to generate traffic back to his products. He Toast what's not rubbish then? well you could try tape reading but you will need my tools to be able to tape read properly..........

He is on a par with Black Swan et al who push a certain agenda and add nothing.....

I brought this issue up a long time ago and even had a very heated discussion about it. But all was largely ignored by the powers to be at t2w, so f@ck it. Not my responsibility.

I've significantly reduced my input here since any decent post or thread just gets bombarded or reduced to near invisibility by all the vendor trash, unregulated spam, lulz instigators, and members with agendas. Also, the "Report Post" button might as well be disabled or removed.

Peter

 

[ChocolateDigestive]

I brought this issue up a long time ago and even had a very heated discussion about it. But all was largely ignored by the powers to be at t2w, so f@ck it. Not my responsibility.

I've significantly reduced my input here since any decent post or thread just gets bombarded or reduced to near invisibility by all the vendor trash, unregulated spam, lulz instigators, and members with agendas. Also, the "Report Post" button might as well be disabled or removed.

Peter

Hey Pete

I feel your vendor pain. lol.

I suppose the crux of the problem is T2W is a business that has to earn money. T2W needs vendors to survive but it also needs decent trading discussion between traders (not traders and vendors) and a balance needs to be struck. I just feel the balance has swung far too far in favor of the vendors who are allowed to run amok all over posts.

Eventually what happens is the better profitable traders just leave. Elite Trader has a good number of full time pro traders, I would prefer to discuss with more of this ilk who trade european instruments, T2W seems to have a fair amount of european members so it's a real shame.

at the moment there is no balance.