TA Bois (& Gurls), analyze this stock for me, and i'll throw in some fundamentals

Car Key Boi

Well-known member
396 8
the company is Biopure (BPUR)

i'm looking to go long on this one for six months or so

my target price is 20 bucks ish

yuor thoughts would be appreciated

thanks in advance

- Car Key Boi
 

Skimbleshanks

1
2,325 16
It looks OK to me - inverted h&s in the broad bottoming pattern, just had a pullback, no divergences of note, strong support just under $5.50. Since beginning of May the stock has formed some nice Elliott Waves, and looks as if it is currently forming a flag, suggesting more upwards movement to come. There will be strong resistance at around $16 and $14-ish (the scaling isn't wonderful on TC2000, and I can't be bothered to wind up my intraday software I'm afraid).

Volume has recently picked up, and by the looks of things the two large volume bars at the end of May on the weekly chart were longs (ie, no big drop after them, so they can't have been shorts).

That's what I see from have a quick peep at the daily and weekly charts.
 

Car Key Boi

Well-known member
396 8
thanks for the analysis Skimbleshanks

i'd be interested in one or two more takes on the stock by some of the others, and then i'll post my fundamental reasons as to why i think it's worth a play

although, like most biotechs, the risk is high, but so is the reward
 

Trader333

Moderator
8,591 922
This will all depend on whether you think the Nasdaq will rise or not in the next 6 months. On another thread you have posted fundamental data suggesting that you think the market will decline.

That said BPUR is a Nasdaq stock in the Biotechnology index (NBI). Over the last 6 months the Nasdaq 100 has gone up by around 25%. During the same timescale the NBI has gone up by 50% and BPUR has gone up by 100%. It is certainly a strong stock in a strong sector which is good if markets are bullish.

There are those who argue that because it has performed so strongly that any correction in the market will have a larger impact on stocks such as BPUR than other stocks.

To predict how it will perform in the next 6 months is clearly impossible and I would wait until later this week when many companies will be announcing their results before buying. The general view is that the US economy is not looking strong and if this translates into the markets then it is unlikely that BPUR will be a good investment.

As an intra-day trader I dont predict I react and if BPUR was valued in the $20 range I would have it as one of my stocks to watch.

Good Luck


Paul
 

Car Key Boi

Well-known member
396 8
hey Paul, thanks for yuor input

yeah i do think the Nas and the Dow blah will decline by the end of the year, but that opinion has been pretty fluid the last few days :D

in any case, i've already factored that in. If i thought the market was gonna do well till the end of the year, i would be setting a target of $25 or more for BPUR

anyways, here's the fundamentals and i'll start off with the bad. Biopure is a $265m company with $2m in trailing revenue and bleeding red ink like there's no tomorrow. Basically they're in desperate need of cash to keep going. Everything is gonna hinge on a new artificial blood product that is awaiting FDA approval. Now obviously their revenues will be low until it gets approved by the FDA, because without it, they don't have a product

now here's the good. I've been told that there have been some amazing test results in 3rd world countries. Biopure's blood oxidizes ten times faster than normal blood. It also should help concerns over aids and blood shortages blah. The US is now taking the aids threat in Africa very seriously as shown by Bush's recent ass-kissing African tour. He's promised a $15billion aid package to combat aids. This product could take a prominent role in that fight against aids in years to come...

Their artificial blood should be approved by the FDA within 6 months at the worse, but hopefully as early as August when a decision is expected by the FDA. The FDA requested an extension to decide whether or not to approve it. There has never been a case where the FDA has requested an extension and not approved a drug. Furthermore, a little chick has told me that the company are so confident that they are already in heavy production of the blood, even though it hasn't been officially approved

as i said, it's highly speculative and dangerous, but the upside is enormous. These are the kind of plays i like

thanks again guys for yuor input. I was gonna play this one anyway but i always like to hear opinions that are coming from a completely different angle

may the trend be with yuo - rock on!
 

Skimbleshanks

1
2,325 16
Just by looking at the chart, and in particular the volume, you could see at the end of May that there was significant interest in this stock. Volume is usually the biggest clue in these sorts of stocks, because someone somewhere knows and that is illustrated in the volume.
 

jonnyy40

Experienced member
1,329 11
Marketwatch have an insiders page,maybe that's a little too obvious?but worth a look?
 
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