Switch Markets & Trading Styles due to current economic climate

cd173

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Hello
Just a curious question, but has anyone recently switched the products they trade due to the current volatility in the markets? I used to trade the DAX futures which was always a little volatile, but noticed it's pretty choppy now and if wanting to trade I would look for a 'calmer' market. Has anyone also changed their trading systems/styles or are you just sitting out?
All this movement has made me want to dive back in!:eek:
Cheers
C
 
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Absolutely.

Not necessarily markets, as I usually look at my core 4 of EUR/USD, Bund, Oil and Dax, and go for just one out of those per pop that "looks" best with the smoothest cycles and best looking set-ups, but time frame has changed definitely.

Where normally I'm far morer of a swing trader holding for days on occasions I'm now strictly intraday, ie I've drastically lowered my time frames, eg down to 1min charts on EUR/USD.

What's chop-chop on say 1hr - ok not now but for quite some time recently - offers beautiful trends down there.
 
Hi Markus
I used to trade Dax 3min chart, so might take a look at 1min setups. Although in the past I found it much too fast!
If you don't mind me asking, which oil product/contract do you trade?
Thanks
C
 
Where normally I'm far morer of a swing trader holding for days on occasions I'm now strictly intraday, ie I've drastically lowered my time frames, eg down to 1min charts on EUR/USD.

I've ended up going towards that route myself, although, not 1min! Just that I've been in and out a lot quicker.

The alternative seems to be to set wider stops (100 pips on E/U, for instance).
 
Hi mate, I do Brent.

Having said that I'd wager that now on these low time frames around 90% of the time I'll be trading EUR/USD rather than oil, what with them moving in lockstep to the degree that they do, but I just usually prefer EUR/USD's moves.

Nothing much perturbs the EUR/USD - not even 9 - 11 - 2001 caused any sort of a noteworthy hiccup, unlike most other financial instruments - but oil gets far wackier when things happen, be it normal news, let alone sthg Big happening out of the blue.

So, the EUR/USD offers a pretty good margin of safety in that respect.

But even with that being the case, now when I'm on such low time frames, I do have to watch out for news these days, that is probably one of the biggest drawdown to trading these low time frames.

On the 1hr charts I usually just didn't care what was scheduled for the day, now that's the first I have to check in the morning lol.

But I will quite often do an entry on a 1 minute, and then go up to a 5 minute or even higher depending on general market environment, to try and get some bigger moves out of that.

Not my invention, adopted that straight from what someone told me Richard Dennis used to some success when he was compounding his stake in the early days.
 
I`ve swithed to short times as well but without much success . In fact if i`m honest-being cut to ribbons in the last fortnight. Obviously doesn`t suit so back to the drawing board. I was trading off 1 hr charts with 5 min as checker.
 
Thanks for the info Markus.
EUR/USD was something I kept an eye on for quite sometime, but somehow never started playing with! Might be worth a gamble.
Cheers
C
 
Yup, doesn't even have to be the EUR/USD, most of the big currency pairs are pretty good in that respect.

Every so often I'll go check which one of the FX biggies has the biggest average true range over the last couple of days or so, and then out of the top three or so choose the one with the nicest looking moves.

So my core is essentially a currency and an interest rate derivative like the Bund - simply because those two markets have some of the best trending characteristics of any instruments around - with another financial future like the DAX and a commodity added in for good measure for when my two main markets are dead or not offering decent setups.
 
I`ve swithed to short times as well but without much success . In fact if i`m honest-being cut to ribbons in the last fortnight. Obviously doesn`t suit so back to the drawing board. I was trading off 1 hr charts with 5 min as checker.

Markets being choppy and pretty hard right now is by no means merely a subjective impression, its fully quantifiable.

Some of you may not have seen this here:

Choppiest Trading Environment in 50 years

That said, the thing that always, always, always saves me is not being particularly clever, it's one thing, and one thing only:

Letting my winners ride, and keeping my losses small.

The EUR/USD has a daily range right now of a couple of hundred pips.

Now, go on down to a 1 minute time frame, choose entries where you lose ca 10 pips when you lose, and make ca 30 when you're right.

With an ATR of over 200 pips at the moment it IS possible to do that !

You will have lots of scratches, and you will sit through lots of wiggles, but for that you can always switch to a higher time frame.

“Disregarding the big swing and trying to jump in and out was fatal to me. Nobody can catch all the fluctuations. In a bull market your game is to buy and hold until you believe that the bull market is near its end.

It was the change in my own attitude toward the game that was of supreme importance to me. It taught me, little by little, the essential difference between betting on fluctuations and anticipating inevitable advances and declines, between gambling and speculating.

I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling the other customers, "Well, you know this is a bull market!" he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend.

And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this:


It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!


It is no trick at all to be right on the market.

You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets.

I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit.

And their experience invariably matched mine:


They made no real money out of it.


Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn.

But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money.

It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance."


Jesse Livermore

How absolutely true !

Well, for us right now, sitting tight means holding on through wiggles and scratches and losses until you can bank a winner that is at least three times as big as your losers.

And again, 10 pip stop loss, 30 pip target, IS doable in a market with over 200 pip movements at this time.

And then you WILL be OK !

Good luck !!!
 
"And again, 10 pip stop loss, 30 pip target, IS doable in a market with over 200 pip movements at this time."

I have been using a larger stoploss of maybe 30 -40 pips. I think that has been the downfall as I watch the price turn round and go my way -after being stopped. Got to get used to tighter stops then. A very different style of trading than i`m used to. Been profitable over the years but I guess I have to adapt.Cheers.
 
Well, don't get me wrong though, normally I'm the last person who'd recommend trading with such small sl's and tp's, that's just down to my entering on 1 min charts in the current choppy environment.

Normally I'd do what you do, have larger sl's and go shoot for several hundred pips.

But in the chop-chop we're seeing right now that wasn't working, so I just cut down.

Take what you can get, not what you want kind of thing, lol.
 
Can't say I've changed my style too much,

However I find that the tradable opportunities are more frequent and far easier to identify with all this volatility and the risk/reward ratios are much improved.

Long may it last!!
 
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