Swing-day trading US stocks

Watch list for 11/14/2006

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


LONG:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
RACK long above: 35.08, stop under: 34.21, target: 40 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11142006rack.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 30, 2006

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
APPB long above: 24.05, stop under: 23.50, target: 25 areas DT-ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11142006appb.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 25, 2006

SHORT:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
NHP short under: 27.17, stop above: 27.60, target: 26.50-26 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11142006nhp.jpg
Last/next earning date: Nov 01, 2006

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
BEBE short under: 22.79, stop above: 23.20, target: 21-20 areas DT-ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11142006bebe.jpg
Last/next earning date: Jan 25, 2006

Watch ideas:

Long:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11142006coh.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11142006cg.jpg

Short:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11142006amd.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11142006omg.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11142006ccj.jpg

DT - day trade
ST – swing trade
PT – position trade
DT-ST – starting with day trade and can turn to swing trade
ST-PT – staring with swing trade and can turn to position trade

I am always available via email and in trading room if you have any questions. [email protected]

Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic

Tracking records:

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl112006.htm - for November
 
Market commentary for 11/15/2006

Good day!
The indices finally broke out. With the PPI much lower than expected and a Fed Governor dovish remarks set off a rally and or short covering taking all 3 indices to post 2001 highs. On the intraday charts you can see that the indices came into an intraday equal move resistance area. We must respect this area even though the quality of the breakout was good as I explained yesterday with all three indices showing strength.
Market action is still high risk for new swings because most of them setup yesterday during trading hours and that is another reason why is good to follow the market in the trading room. We had a number of setups the last couple days including a number of open positions I will use caution with new opportunities today. We came in situation when we have strong intraday move up in to resistance area and with that situation will high risk to take new trades right at start.
Because of that I only have two new setups on the watch list. I did bring several potential trades under watch ideas. As usual I will watch the opening action and bring any new ideas into the trading room.
This morning I have long bias. Indices have room for a continued move The QQQQ made a new monthly high and there is plenty of room. But again, for low risk setup the market needs consolidate. While swing trades have been difficult over the past month, day trade set ups in the trading room have given us a good month to date. So let’s see the open and let’s go with the market again.

Watch list for 11/15/2006
LONG:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
ALV long above: 58.00 (57.80), stop under: 53.00 (55.00), target: open PT http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11152006alv.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 26, 2006

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
SINA long above: 29.50, stop under: 29.25, target: 30 areas DT http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11152006sina.jpg

Watch ideas:

Long:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11152006uctt.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11152006rimm.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11152006zz.jpg

Short:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11152006omg.jpg
 
Market commentary for 11/16/2006

Good day!

We had a nice trend day going yesterday until FED minutes came out. Hawkish comments based on old information put a quick end to our bullish frenzy. When you look at the intraday and daily charts you can see that Indices need rest. On the daily charts the equal move up shows resistance. On intraday charts selling from high is on a stronger pace then buying. This can easily lead to an avalanche pattern on the 15 min charts. But what is important, we didn’t get swing short sign, the market just looks like a correction. For future possibilities it is important to see the result of that correction. Right now the Indices need rest and ultimately brings a high risk trading environment. You may hear the term the market is overbought and needs to back and fill. Remember the market can always get more overbought.

Today I expect a consolidation day. More like selling high, buying low day. That type of action doesn't fit my style so I anticipate a slower day for me. I will look for day trade setups for room and "own way" stocks.


Watch list for 11/16/2006

LONG:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
DBRN long above: 22.50, stop under: 21.39 (21.92), target: 25-27.50 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11162006dbrn.jpg
Last/next earning date: Sep 26, 2006

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
CG long above: 62.29, stop under: 61.94, target: 63-64 areas DT http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11162006cg.jpg

SHORT:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
COF short under: 76.33 (76.50), stop above: 77.50, target: open ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11162006cof.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 18, 2006

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
NTRS short under: 58.00 stop above: 58.50 (58.28), target: 57 DT, open ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11162006ntrs.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 18, 2006

Watch ideas:

Long:

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11162006rimm.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11162006syna.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11162006dd.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11162006im.jpg

Short:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11162006cbk.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11162006ca.jpg

DT - day trade
ST – swing trade
PT – position trade
DT-ST – starting with day trade and can turn to swing trade
ST-PT – staring with swing trade and can turn to position trade

Tracking records:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl112006.htm - for November

I am always available via email and in trading room if you have any questions.

Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica
 
Market commentary for 11/22/2006

Good day!
We had another consolidation day. The only change was we got the narrowest day in the last 7 or we had a NR7 bar. Most of the time that will bring a trend day after a NR7 day. I will look for that opportunity today. With the market action on the daily chart my bias is on the long side. I will not jump at the first long above yesterdays high because after a long tight consolidation like we have had, e have a higher chance for a false breakout.
There are two ways to trade this pattern, the first is to buy the first breakout with a smaller position and add to it with continuation patterns and the second is to leave the first breakout and just go with continuation patterns. This is depending on the individual but remember to know we have a higher chance for a false breakout.
There is another way to trade a trend day possibility. Wait for the first 60 min and mark low and high and go with direction what will be broken first. This is not rule, but this is as situation when you want to wait and follow the action at the open to avoid possible false breakouts. These types of trades are only if we see a trend day. We don’t know if this wills happen but after NR7 day the % possibility for that increases.
Don’t forget that is tomorrow last whole trading day for this week, and we can expect a number of traders will close their desktops after the morning action and that will bring light volume for rest of day.
All the above is a good reason why it will be best to stay with same tactic we have been using tomorrow. Small risk and use intraday moves and that only in case the range are broken. I will not be interested in new trades until the indices move out of this range.

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11222006qqqq.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11222006qqqq60.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11212006spy.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11222006spy60.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11222006dia.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11222006dia60.jpg


Watch list for 11/22/2006

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Use small risk and intraday moves and that only in case the range are broken. I will not be interested in new trades until the indices move out of this range.

LONG:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
PANC long above: 7.10, stop under: 6.77, target: 8 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11222006panc.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 26, 2006

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
FLIR long above: 34.00, stop under: 33.75, target: 35 areas DT http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11222006flir.jpg

ADBE long above: 42.75, stop under: 42.32, target: open DT-ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11222006adbe.jpg

PYX long above: 15.00, stop under: 14.89, target: 15.50 areas DT-ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11222006pyx.jpg

SHORT:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
MSCC short under: 19.82, stop above: 20.42, target: open ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11222006mscc.jpg
Last/next earning date: Nov 16

Watch ideas:
Long:
JOYG, LLL, MPS, PH, CPTS

Short:
PFGC, AMD, WPI

DT - day trade
ST – swing trade
PT – position trade
DT-ST – starting with day trade and can turn to swing trade
ST-PT – staring with swing trade and can turn to position trade

Tracking records:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl052006.htm
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl062006.htm
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl072006.htm - for July
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl082006.htm - for August
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl092006.htm - for September
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl102006.htm - for October
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl112006.htm - for November
I am always available via email and in trading room if you have any questions.

Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
 
Breaking on 3rd try

People who follow me know that I really like that 3rd try breaking. This is one of my favorite patterns. I will tell why. Most of time we could see breakout on 3rd try and could be charm. In past I was figure that I had a lot of problems with flags. Lots of time I was seen only slightly new high or double top (2T pattern). At that time I didn’t know how to react in that situation. So I had problems with flag intra day. In that case lots of time after double top, or slightly higher high you will see another pull back (smaller then previous) and you will get triangle formation. Risk is what I really like in that pattern. Risk is always smaller and smaller. That is very important for good risk/reward trade, what is the base for profitable trade. I’m sure that without good risk/reward trades no one can’t be successful trade, with any trading method.
Like to show one example what we had in trading room.
VAL
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11132006val.jpg
You can see that on the daily chart, VAL consolidation started with the triangle consolidation after strong upward move. We got 3rd try triangle and setup was above: $27, with stop under 26.70 what was based on the 60 min chart intraday support area. I use a lot intraday setups for swing move, but that is other subject.
Target area was 28-30 areas. Depend on the pace and action.
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11272006val.jpg
After few days VAL gave up nice gap up and we follow intraday action and we got exit around 29.25 area. Risk was 30 cents, and we got 2.20 moves and that is risk/reward more then 6.
Important is to understand how to use patterns to find good r/r trades.
Hope all that make sense and if anyone have any question feel free to send me email
Wish all nice holidays.
Ivica
 
Market commentary for 11/27/2006

Good day!
Friday started at the intraday supportarea. For the QQQQ that was around the 5 min 200sma and for the SPY and the DIA around the 15 min 200sma. Since volume as expected was low and we are at a strong intraday support area it isn’t uncommon to see filling gap action right from open. Volume was light all day and generally Friday action was not important for the overall situation. it was important just for those who needed to trade. For me that was worthless day for trading.
For future action my bias is neutral, but I am starting to look for short ideas. There are several reasons for that. The first is the market needs to rest after this weekly move up. The daily resistance area is something that could stop this move up and start with a correction. Another reason is the 60 min pace. The QQQQ breakout pace is very poor, a lot weaker then move in to consolidation area. The SPY 60 min gave us only false breakout and the DIA 60 min rounding high. This action on all the Indices looks like market is very tired and in need of a rest. This isn’t automatically a short setup. That is very important to understand. Lots of newer traders like to short strong uptrend moves because they think that will get the same pace on a reversal. That is incorrect thinking.
A correction can be a base, it can be slow pace selling or can be the rounding highs with strong intraday bounces or can be a strong reversal. You can see that a strong reversal is just one option and all others options are too high risk for a short. I will continue to look for weak names to short and strong names for long trades. We are still in high risk market for swing traders and because of that I will start with half risk on new trades and then I will add to the position if situation will go well for me.
That is important part of becoming a profitable trader.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic


Watch ideas:

Long:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11272006mps.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11272006tsra.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11272006ph.jpg

Short:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11272006cwtr.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11272006adm.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11272006wpi.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11272006csc.jpg

Tracking records
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl112006.htm - for November
 
Hi DWL

I just thought I'd drop you a quick thanks for your market commentaries, I read and take your comments into consideration every day I trade - your efforts are appreciated!
 
SirFrancis said:
Hi DWL

I just thought I'd drop you a quick thanks for your market commentaries, I read and take your comments into consideration every day I trade - your efforts are appreciated!
Click to expand...

Thank you very much SirFrancis
:)

Ivica
 
Market commentary for 11/28/2006

Good day!
We finally got our trend day, however it was to the downside. We gapped down to the 200ma which was intraday support. The SPY filled the gap and that was the last of what we saw to the long side. You can see on SPY 5 min chart how strong the 20sma 5 min area is in a trend day. The SPY couldn’t break all day above that resistance area. That is the subject of my class today in the trading room. The important thing to see is that the selling from daily highs is stronger then buying at the daily high. This is telling us we may change the trend or at least not see a new daily high very soon. Volume was higher then usual during last few days and that is another indicator good for short traders. This is the action I expected and explained in yesterday’s market commentary. This is not a swing call for short side. We can't say that after just one down trend day. We can say we probably have seen the daily highs for a while. The SPY and the DIA closed under the 20ma daily support area what is another sign of selling pace. Most of time 20ma support area will hold on first try and that wasn’t case for SPY and DIA. The QQQQ has some room to come to that support area and I think that will be case today in the morning.
So I will expect selling at open, maybe a gap down, but I expect that QQQQ will touch the 20ma daily support area (blue line). After that I will look for consolidation on 30/60 min charts. I don’t expect much from today because we saw main move yesterday and it is good we had some good trades with that move yesterday.
It is very important to not overtrade today and important to not trade with same risk as yesterday. Main mission for today will be to protect that capital. So generally I expect a consolidation day which is common after a strong selling day.
Good luck trading today!!!!

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11282006qqqq.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11282006qqqq60.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11282006spy.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11282006spy60.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11282006dia.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11252006dia60.jpg


Watch list for 11/28/2006

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This market continues to be high risk for swing traders. My goal is to bring low risk trades to my watch list so the numbers of trade setups are fewer than usual. One of the most important traits of a successful trader is patience and right now until market conditions improve it is best to be patient. I trade the same setups that I post so for both yours and my long term success I hope you will understand why I am being patient and hope you will be also. Remember, sometimes being in cash is the best trade you can make.

LONG:

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
IACI long above: 35.55, stop under: 35.00 (35.15), target: 37 areas DT-ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11282006iaci.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 31, 2006

SHORT:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
EP short under: 13.50, stop above: 14.00, target: open ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11282006ep.jpg
Last/next earning date: Nov 06, 2006

Watch ideas:

Long:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11282006oi.jpg

Short:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11282006fast.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11282006hans.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11282006ocr.jpg

DT - day trade
ST – swing trade
PT – position trade
DT-ST – starting with day trade and can turn to swing trade
ST-PT – staring with swing trade and can turn to position trade

Tracking records:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl112006.htm - for November
 
Market commentary for 11/29/2006

Good day!
After a trend day it not uncommon to see a consolidation day. That is pretty much what we saw. Yesterday we saw gap down and some whippy action at open. The market usually holds support the first time it tries to break daily support/or resistance area. After the bounce from support we saw a day consolidation and tight range action. In the last hour market woke up and broke modestly to the upside. You can see on intraday charts that pace wasn’t strong and I will expect that 60 min consolidation will continue today again. The QQQQ and the SPY stayed above the 200sma on 60 min chart what is strong intraday support area and first resistance is 20sma on the same time frame. Only the DIA has problems with 200sma 60 min for now and I will expect that will break that resistance in the morning.
Overall I expect that 20sma 60 min will hold today, at least for the morning and depending on the reaction from that resistance area we could easily see action between 200sma as support and 20sma as resistance. In that scenario we can expect that 60 min consolidation will continue today and that mean we will continue to look for intraday moves.
Swing trades are again high risk and it will be harder to find good setups. Swing traders must trade with smaller risk then usual.
I will go over % gainers and % losers list in the morning for some intraday setups. I will look for gap, trap trades and for strongest and weakest charts for intraday continuation.
Good luck trading today!!!!


http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11292006qqqq.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11292006qqqq60.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11292006spy.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11292006spy60.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11292006dia.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11292006dia60.jpg


Watch list for 11/29/2006

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This market continues to be high risk for swing traders. My goal is to bring low risk trades to my watch list so the numbers of trade setups are fewer than usual. One of the most important traits of a successful trader is patience and right now until market conditions improve it is best to be patient. I trade the same setups that I post so for both yours and my long term success I hope you will understand why I am being patient and hope you will be also. Remember, sometimes being in cash is the best trade you can make.

LONG:

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
HES long above: 49.00 (48.80), stop under: 48.32, target: 50 areas DT http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11292006hes.jpg

SHORT:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)

ZOLT short under: 22.30, stop above: 23.00, target: 20 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11292006zolt.jpg

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
GVA short under: 49.46, stop above: 49.81, target: 48.50-48 areas http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11292006gva.jpg

Watch ideas:
Long:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11292006vphm.jpg

Short:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11292006ceph.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11292006hans.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11292006ocr.jpg

DT - day trade
ST – swing trade
PT – position trade
DT-ST – starting with day trade and can turn to swing trade
ST-PT – staring with swing trade and can turn to position trade

Tracking records:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl112006.htm - for November


I am always available via email and in trading room if you have any questions.
[email protected]

Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
 
BONT mini lesson

When someone asks me about the any stock or the any chart I want see a whole picture before I will bring answer. For me that is view on the intraday charts and the bigger time frame charts. I got private message about BONT, and as usual I go over the whole screen and I really liked what I see. I see a combination.
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/bont.jpg
First I always take a look at the daily chart. On BONT you can see nice trap action today. Yesterday BONT closed near the low of the day and today had open above the yesterday high of the day. That will bring some panic for short traders because lots of them will use high of the day for stop price. That action will help buyers and came bring more buyers what is always good. Also you can see that with that action BONT broken daily triangle consolidation. After when I see the daily chart I go on the weekly chart to see bigger time frame trend. You can see that situation is nice. On the weekly chart we have triangle consolidation after the nice move up. This is not enough consolidation for the equal move but it is for move to the weekly highs.
OK let’s see intraday charts. After the morning gap up and run right at the open BONT gave us nice 5 min small triangle (consolidation). This small range giving us great risk reward/opportunity. Also that is nice 30 min continuation pattern. So in this case we can use BONT for swing trade and for day trade. . Day trade trading plan is on the 5 min chart. Long above 35 with stop under consolidation. Risk reward is great on that. Also can use for swing trade with same setup, above 35, but then we must use bigger stop in case that BONT could see false breakout and more consolidation. I used 200sma 15 min for that. So under 34 as whole number resistance area. Now when we saw really nice move, I just move my swing stop to breakeven area and I will wait. Of course trader can protect something, or not. That area is very personal and it is up to trader.
 
Market commentary for 11/30/2006

Good day!
Trying to explain the action yesterday is impossible. I can say whippy at best. First the market reacted to better than expected GDP numbers, then the market reacted to the oil inventory draw down greater than expected, then the market reacted to BA airlines finding radiation on some airplanes, then the market reacted to a beige book that was more benign than expected, add oil jumping 1.50 and finally end of the year buying and selling, we had a whippy day.
The SPY showed the most strength with the QQQQ a bit weaker. Most of morning we had divergence between SPY and QQQQ on the smaller time frames (2 min charts). Yesterday's action wasn’t in line with my expectations because after strong selling at Monday I didn’t expect a strong up day. Unfortunately we were kicked from most of our open short trades. We did do well with our long trades yesterday. I would like to say when trader is against market it is important not push things. It is better not to trade than overtrade. This is a very common error of most traders.
I try to look at the market over the last couple of day as a big range consolidation. Right now I do not have a bias for today. I’m sure that swing traders will have hard time to find a number of good setups. The safest trading is going to be based on intraday moves the same as we did yesterday. The SPY daily looks like could retest daily high, but DIA and QQQQ are weaker. One scenario that I will watch for is the possible double top of the SPY and a lower high for DIA and QQQQ. With that much confusion on the charts it is difficult to know which way the market is going.
Best to stay with what the market gives us and be fast with profits.
Good luck trading today!!!!


http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11302006qqqq.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11302006qqqq60.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11302006qqqq5.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11302006spy.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11302006spy60.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11302006dia.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11302006dia60.jpg


Watch list for 11/30/2006

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I found a number of possible day trades. It is important to evaluate them after the market opens and see what action can be taken. I will bring some ideas to this daily list under "day trade possibilities". All of these ideas can be interesting only as day trades. Please don't over trade them especially if they set up at the same time. I recommend only taking trades that you really like and understanding. These ideas are just for the morning.

I did not find very many interesting setups for swing traders this morning. My goal is to bring you lower risk, higher probability trades. The market is now is higher risk for new swing setups so the number of swing trades possibilities are fewer. I will continue to work for your long term success. So please understand why there are fewer trade possibilities.


LONG:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)

BGG long above: 27.00, stop under: 26.30, target: 29 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11302006bgg.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 19, 2006

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)

HIMX long above: 5.20, stop under: 5.10, target: 5.50 areas DT-ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11302006himx.jpg
Last/next earning date: Nov 06, 2006

SHORT:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)

CVD short under: 59.00, stop above: 59.50, target: 58.00 - 57.50 area ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11302006cvd.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 25, 2006

Watch ideas:

Long:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11302006tsra.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11302006blt.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11302006gpn.jpg

Short:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11302006ocr.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11302006amd.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11302006cogt.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11302006brl.jpg

DT - day trade
ST – swing trade
PT – position trade
DT-ST – starting with day trade and can turn to swing trade
ST-PT – staring with swing trade and can turn to position trade

If anyone need more info always can find me during trading hours in the trading room

Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic


Tracking records:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl112006.htm - for November
 
Class about moving averages from Tuesday 11/28/2006

Today I will talk about moving averages. As you can see I try to keep my charts very simply. I don’t have many indicators on them. I use the CCI (as overbought/oversold indicator) on the daily and weekly charts only, volume on all charts and simply moving averages.
On daily chart I use 10, 20, 50, 100, 200sma (simply moving average). Same is for weekly charts too. But on the intraday charts I use only 20sma and 200sma. I will try to explain why I use then on that way.
I use the moving averages as support/resistances areas. They work very nice on that field. I also use them to determine the trend. I use them the same on the all time frames. I consider the most important moving averages are 20sma and 200sma. Since I use trend for my trading and I’m trend trader then it is very important for me to see which are support/resistance areas in trend market/stock. You can see a lot of time when I have question in trading room that my answer is same: more rest will be better, fast trade only etc. Rest is reason for that. After every move a stock or the market needs to rest and needs time for that. After 7 years of experience I can measure that by eyes but to get there I used tools and that were simply moving averages.
I wait for the consolidation (rest) to come to the 20sma and then I look for a bounce from that area.
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/COHsma.jpg
COH daily chart is very nice example. You can see that after strong move up COH started with consolidation and when it came to the 20sma COH bounced on new daily high. Those in room can remember that we followed that one. Now this is generally the idea and that is what we can expect in a trend stock. In that case I will go on intraday charts and then will look for intraday setup (base, triangle, and flag). COH risk was around 30cents and brought a move of 2-3 bucks. That is most important to be profitable, good risk/reward. Now when we know that 20sma is support/resistance area it sounds logical to wait that to have that as support on setup. If you take it before then you can often see a false breakout and pullback to support area.
Important is that if you follow charts all the time and you can expect that most of the time the first try to break any support /resistance area will hold. That knowledge we use a lot in our trading. So when I say it needs more rest, fast trade only etc I told that because that isn’t low risk setup and my main focus is to find those setups. Now is logical to have 20sma as support in a trade and that can bring lower risk trade if we know that most of time 1st try to break that support will hold and in trend stocks will bring bounce what we can use for our setups.
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/11142006rvsn.jpg
This is another chart where you can see hold 20sma hold and how we can use that advantage.
RVSN had a nice consolidation on the 15 min chart after move up in the morning and then it bounced after it touched the 20sma. I use that knowledge to make good risk/reward.
On daily and weekly chart I like to use 10sma too. It is good trend indicator, especially for strong trends. If we will see bounce from 10sma that chart want tell us how strong is that trend. Most of time we don’t have enough rest in that situations but if I will see that possibility on bigger time frames I will use that for intraday setups and then will try to take advantage of that situation on that way. On the intraday charts I don’t use 10sma because it is mostly for strong and fast moves and I explained in the room that I’m not best with fast trades. But those who are fast traders can use them on the same way as 20sma. The bounce from 10sma will tell you that we have stronger trend then in 10sma case.
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/QQQQsma.jpg
On this daily QQQQ chart you can see what I mean with 20sma and 10sma. You can see how 10sma and 20sma hold this daily uptrend move. So how we go with bigger SMA is logical that is trend pace smaller. On the daily charts because of that I use 50sma for smaller trend pace, but still trend chart. Again that is same reason why I use on bigger time frames all moving averages and on intraday only 20sma and 200sma. 100sma and 200sma I use for support/resistance area. Not for trend determination, but on the all time frames 200sma will bring support/resistance area, and I use them for my trading plan, trailing stop etc.
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/ALXNsma.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/synasma.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/affxsma.jpg
Here are few examples on daily charts. Good part is that we can use for all time frames. When I see that possibility on bigger time frame (daily, weekly) I will go on intraday charts and I will try to find setup there and with bigger time frame combination we can get extremely good risk/rewards. ALXN is one of those examples. When I see that situation on intraday charts I will use that mostly for day trades, but as usual only that isn’t enough to be successful trader. This is just part in whole mosaic. But this is great tool and very profitable tool.
To be successful trader you don’t need to know a ton of patterns and setups. You need to know just few of them, most familiar for you. But you must know all about those setups what is familiar with you. When you came to that level, you just need to research and wait to see situation what you know and form there you will take your profit. Like a hunter you must wait, wait, and wait. When target came, then you go and execute.
Same is with trading.

Next class will be at 12/05/2006 about confidence
 
Market commentary for 12/04/2006

Good day!
Friday was another day of whippy action. The ISM coming in below expectation and it is at a point that suggests the soft landing of the economy is becoming more of a hard landing. Bargain hunting at the end of day saved the market from a bigger loss. The day started with strong selling into the daily support area. For the QQQQ and the DIA that means previous (Tuesday) low, and for the SPY that meant the Wednesday low. From this support the market bounced. This action is telling me there is a fight between buyers and sellers for market direction. On the daily charts you can see the trend line is bringing in a key support area. I think right now no one can say what direction we will see next week and we could easily see more action between these consolidation areas on the daily charts. All this continues to bring a higher risk market and swing traders will have a harder time. This is more of a market for scalp and day traders and the trader must be fast in taking profits. No matter with intraday action, we are still in a uptrend market and we must respect that. I think that we will see more selling in future but for that we don’t have clear signal. My advice is to stay nibble and in a watch mode.
Good luck trading today!!!!

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12042006qqqq.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12042006qqqq60.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12042006spy.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12042006spy60.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12042006dia.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12042006dia60.jpg

Watch list for 12/04/2006

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


LONG:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
CPO long above: 36.55, stop under: 35.00, target: 40 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12042006cpo.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 24, 2006

WCG long above: 65.07, stop under: 63.00 (64.00), target: 70 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12042006wcg.jpg
Last/next earning date: Nov 01, 2006

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
CCRT long above: 38.00, stop under: 37.00, target: 40 areas DT-ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12042006ccrt.jpg
Last/next earning date: Nov 06

SHORT:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
CVD short under: 59.00, stop above: 60.31, target: 55 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12042006cvd.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 25, 2006

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
COGT short under: 11.23, stop above: 11.50, target: 10 areas DT-ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12042006cogt.jpg
Last/next earning date: Nov 02, 2006

Watch ideas:

Long:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12042006cnc.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12042006ntg.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12042006tsra.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12042006celg.jpg

Short:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12042006ener.jpg

I am always available via email and in trading room if you have any questions.
Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
 
Market commentary for 12/05/2006

Good day!

Monday gave us continuation from Friday bounce from low. That brought the SPY on the new daily, The DIA and the QQQQ back to daily high resistance what is to big resistance area for now. If you remember market commentary from last week that is one of scenarios what we follow. Right now is important to see 30/60 min consolidation after that strong intraday move up, because form that consolidation we can predict future action. You can see on the 60 min chart that Indices need rest for possible continuation, because after that move every new setup without rest will not be low risk setup. Important is to note that volume wasn’t strong on yesterday action and that brought us to risk of possible double top pattern on the daily charts. Because of volume and 2t possibility it is more important to see today action. Traders must use extra caution because of that because if that daily pattern (double top) will come today must close follow open long trades and be prepared to protect them.
Swing traders still have hard time to find low risk setups after that two day run because market need rest as explained above, so today I will again look for intraday moves and I don’t expect same activity as yesterday and I will be more reserved, and my focus will be to following open positions. If market will hold well then I will look to add positions on some open swing trades as BGG, PSA, and CNC but for that we must see morning action first.
Today will good day for class in the trading room, what will focus us to not overtrade.

Good luck trading today!!!!

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12052006qqqq.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12052006qqqq60.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12052006spy.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12052006spy60.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12052006dia.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12052006dia60.jpg

I am always available via email and in trading room if you have any questions. [email protected]

Ivica Juracic
 
Market commentary for 12/07/2006

Good day!
When you look at the indices on the daily charts you can see yesterday was a NR7 bar (narrowest bar in the last 7 days). PRETTY BORING DAY for a day trader. We didn’t see much of a change on the daily chart, just for records the SPY made slightly higher high. On the 60 min charts you can see that SPY started to round at the highs and the QQQQ was the weakest index.
After an NR7 bar I always look for possible trend day. What way? Who knows? With the daily action I will look for selling trend day. Unfortunately we can never know for sure. There is one way to know how to trade with high % of being in the right direction. That is waiting 60 min from the open and mark the low and high. The first direction to break is usually the way the market will go. That is not a rule, but it often works. My bias is on short side and that is because Indices are still affected with double top pattern possibility and for long side I just don’t see enough rest for low risk setup. I will follow the market as usual and I will stay with smaller risk then usual. If we are on the right side with intraday trend I will add to positions, but I will not start with full risk from start.
Swing traders still have a harder time to find good setup and that will be same until market will gives us a good consolidation.
Good luck trading today!!!!

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12072006qqqq.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12072006qqqq60.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12072006spy.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12072006spy60.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12072006dia.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12072006dia60.jpg


Watch ideas:

Long:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12072006ice.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12072006gild.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12072006ctl.jpg

Short:

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12072006rbak.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12072006fast.jpg http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12072006rcl.jpg

I am always available via email and in the trading room if you have any questions.
[email protected]
Good luck trading today!!!!

Ivica Juracic

Tracking records:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl112006.htm - for November
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl122006.htm - for December
 
Market commentary for 12/08/2006

Good day!
We finally saw some intraday action that was worth trading. I mentioned yesterday after a NR7 bar we have a high probability for some action. We didn’t get a classic book trend day but after strong selling in the morning and consolidation over noon we saw another selling move. That brought us to an equal move support area. On the daily chart the QQQQ broke the 20ma daily support area but it is still above the trend line and it is the same for the other Indices. For now we have not seen any bigger change on daily charts. On the bigger time frames, the market stayed strong and that is the main course which we must follow. I hope this correction on the daily charts will bring more possible long trades in the future with low risk. That was not the case last few days with such choppy market action. The SPY stayed strongest while the QQQQ stayed weakest. Since we still don’t have a longer term signal I will stick with intraday moves for now. We have open long and short swing trades and for now they doing well. For now I would use a lower risk tolerance and look for faster trades (day, scalp trades). I will look for few more days of correction on the daily chart and what is most important: pace of that correction. That could tell us about future moves, until then trade with same conditions: smaller risk, and be faster with profits.
Good luck trading today!!!!

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12082006qqqq.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12082006qqqq60.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12082006qqqq15.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12082006spy.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12082006spy60.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12082006spy15.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12082006dia.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12082006dia60.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12082006dia15.jpg

Watch list for 12/08/2006

SHORT:

AVT short under: 24.40 (24.58), stop above: 25.00, target: 23.50 DT-ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12082006avt.jpg

ODP short under: 38.33 (38.50), stop above: 38.70, target: 37.50 areas DT-ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12082006odp.jpg


I am always available via email and in the trading room if you have any questions or want more intraday setups.
Good luck trading today!!!!

Ivica Juracic



Tracking records:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl122006.htm - for December
 
Market commentary for 12/12/2006

Good day!
Yesterday the market continued with whippy intraday action. After the morning run up the rest of day was very slow and worthless for trading. The market continues to consolidate and everything else seems to be on hold till the FMOC decision at 2:15 est. The typical FED day we have a move up in the morning. With yesterday's consolidation I expect the same for today. All morning market activity should be used for day trades only. New swing setups are usually higher risk on FED day since the post decision is whippy and very high risk. Open trades are high risk!!!! and perhaps consider closing prior to decision. Perhaps we can find a “own way” stock or just monitor open trades. I personally do not trade after the FED decision.
Remember that Friday is option expiration day; this is the triple expiration so I anticipate whippy action all week. I would guess the direction of the market will be determined by the FED decision and their statement.
Risk remains very high especially for swing traders; I would recommend staying with faster intraday trades.
Today will be class in the trading room at 12 pm est., so feel free to join us, it is free!!!!!
Good luck trading today!!!!

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12122006qqqq.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12122006qqqq60.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12122006spy.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12122006spy60.jpg

http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12122006dia.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12122006dia60.jpg

Watch list for 12/12/2006

IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail. I personally mostly take swing trades. Please remember to keep that in mind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

LONG:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
ALV long above: 59.26, stop under: 58.25, target: 62.00 (65.00) areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12122006alv.jpg
Last/next earning date: Feb 08, 2006

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
SYK long above: 54.37, stop under: 54.08, target: 55 areas DT http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12122006syk.jpg

SHORT:

Swing possibilities (ST-PT)
RSH short under: 16.90, stop above: 17.60, target: 15 areas ST http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12122006rsh.jpg
Last/next earning date: Oct 25, 2006

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)
NFI short under: 30.50, stop above: 30.62, target: 30 areas DT http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12122006nfi.jpg

Watch ideas:

Long:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12122006dbd.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12122006pde.jpg

Short:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12122006bni.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12122006qlgc.jpg
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/12122006eye.jpg

DT - day trade
ST – swing trade
PT – position trade
DT-ST – starting with day trade and can turn to swing trade
ST-PT – staring with swing trade and can turn to position trade

Tracking records:
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl052006.htm
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl062006.htm
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl072006.htm - for July
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl082006.htm - for August
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl092006.htm - for September
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl102006.htm - for October
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl112006.htm - for November
http://www.swingcharts.net/Ivica/2006/dwl122006.htm - for December

I am always available via email and in the trading room if you have any questions. [email protected]

Good luck trading today!!!!
Ivica Juracic
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

DionysusToast
A DT Trading System - swing/day trading
2
Replies
29
Views
22K
misssnp
M
Top