Surfing the wave and the big break.

[robwin]

Day 3. Markets were all over the place for most of the day eating up all the stops.... mine included but I managed to end the day in profit.

Jan start + 192 pips

Today + 47 pips. Winners 1 losers 1

 

[Vaco]

You were in that aussie trade a long time, if it goes back up into the range for too long do u never get out without it hitting your stop?

 

[robwin]

I leave my stop and only lower it when a lower high has formed away from the channel. I never move to break even, the market goes hunting break even stops at what are called critical levels, obvious entry levels below a low above a high etc. When a trade goes into profit people fear a winning trade turning into a loser and rush to break even, and then they wonder why they get stopped out by just one pip!

At the start of a trade price can go against me for a while, I've seen the price spike just above the channel and then fall so often, look at some of the charts posted and see how well the channel protects the stop. Of course nothing can be expected to work everytime but it's a pretty sound method on the whole.

 

[robwin]

Fri. No trades due to news release on Non-farm payrolls.

Up to now I’ve only recorded trades that I’ve entered and although I watch and trade 4 pairs during the day I don’t trade every set up simply because if the entry point on one pair happens to coincide with the entry point on another pair then I’m likely to miss it due to a lack of development in the multi-tasking department. Entry levels need to be precise and I can only fully concentrate on one entry at a time when it occurs and on the 5 minute things can happen fast.

To give a more accurate and fair account of this method I’ll daily back test 8 major pairs and post charts giving the results both winners and losers all traded to the rules laid out in this journal. That I think will give a more overall accurate account.

 

[Vaco]

Sounds like a lot of work, i hope you get something out of it as well as others. Good idea not trading fri.

 

[robwin]

Not really a lot of work Vaco as it's something I do at the end of every trading day anyway, it's good practice and the more I do it the easier it becomes to spot valid entry levels when they do occur live.

The first friday of every month is the one day I never trade, looking at the spikes on any Forex pair yesterday will show it's nothing more than a high risk gamble!

 

[isatrader]

To give a more accurate and fair account of this method I’ll daily back test 8 major pairs and post charts giving the results both winners and losers all traded to the rules laid out in this journal. That I think will give a more overall accurate account.

Have you considered expanding your testing out of the forex area? As forex tends to have a lot more significant intraday reversals than stock indexes and commodities I think. So you might find that your method works even better somewhere else?

 

[robwin]

As yet I've only traded this with Forex and that alone takes up all my time but a chart is a chart and as long as there's a trend there's no reason why the settings and rules souldn't work with any market.When I get time maybe I'll try other markets but it's all laid out here and nothing hidden for anyone to do their own testing on any markets they choose.

 

[jimmc]

And very much appreciated Robwin, I'm finding it fascinating. I hope you're finding that it's also helping your trading to keep the journal like this.

 

[robwin]

Sure, keeping a journal and going back over trades and charts gives a clear view of what happened, the complete picture and removes all the emotion that's involved while trading and watching the price move tick by tick. Why is it that demo accounts seem to make pips and then when real money is involved it all goes wrong. Emotion enters the equation, fear and greed, the traders downfall.

 

[smbtnt]

Great stuff. Look forward to further posts.

 

[cristiano]

Same here, great journal. Keep it up.

 

[robwin]

Day 4. A listless day with no real direction as sometimes happens the Monday after non-farm payrolls. This method needs a good trend and there was nothing like one for most of today.

Today -42 pips. Winners 0 Losers 2 Breakeven 1

Jan start + 152 pips

 

[robwin]

Been away and unable to trade but I see the markets have given us some nice moves so let’s get back to the fray!

Sometimes the price can move fast and give no viable entry level close to the channel so I need a more aggressive entry method to allow for this and its a method I'll be using from here on. This means entering a trade within the body of the channel if the price retraces back into it, risky but the stop loss can be reduced and it will give more profit on successful trades by entering the trade much earlier. Like I say although risky and it will surely reduce the win/lose ratio any loss should only be around 10 pips or a little more and that includes spread so not as painful as a 20 – 30 pip loser.

It will also mean I won't miss the start of a trend because the high or low is too high or low, I just wait for the price to retrace back into the channel.

I always keep an eye on the longer time frame, in this case the 15 minutes and watch how the price is reacting to the channel and its own blue 15 ema line as in this time frame these MA’s often also act as support and resistance in a trend.This confirms the value of this channel and the 15 ema on any time frame.

Got back late and was unable to trade but here’s my view and how I read the moves today and how it could have been traded with this more aggressive method.

This is similar in concept to the ‘secondary’ entry method I’ve been showing in past charts and although to the novice it may sound a little more advanced than entering at highs and lows after a retrace, it’s not exactly rocket science.

GBP/USD

EUR/USD

EUR/JPY

AUS/USD

 

[Headless Chook]

............ Anyhow 7.30am too early for me!

Hi Robwin, interesting journal you have here. Quality charts - very clear!

Just wondering about trading times - above you say 7.30am is too early for you, but on your first post you state your trading hours as 6am-4pm (presumably UK time?)

Would you mind clarifying please?

And keep up the great work!

 

[Headless Chook]

In this GBP/USD chart - is that not a valid 'Big Break' setup? Or were you just using this chart for illustration purposes to show another entry method?

 

[robwin]

You're right Headless 6am was my intended start time but the cold dark mornings did for me and I did say somewhere back in the journal 11 hours was too much and I was changing it to 8am - 4pm.

That's a 'big break' right enough but I also say back in the journal I don't trade them alone as they produce too many losing trades due to fake breakouts. I always follow the rules and wait for the retrace.

 

[rathcoole_exile]

[IMG http://www.trade2win.com/boards/attachment.php?attachmentid=98204&stc=1&d=1292780573[/IMG]

i like what you're doing with the breaks of S&R, wedges etc

But I cannot see what value these indicators bring at all.

I am sure you could achieve results just as good without them

 

[robwin]

The only thing that matters to me rathcool is that I can see the value these indicators bring, we all read charts in a totally different way and thats why there are winners and losers and of course thats what creates a market.

 

[robwin]

AUD/USD

The Ozzie had my full attention today. After reaching highs not seen for 30 years the inevitable sell off came followed by the inevitable retrace followed by….well you get the picture. Anyhow the retrace back up was running out of steam so I was looking for the right sell level and I didn’t have long to wait , and I had a tasty two bites of the pie.

.........and again...