Rols,
In the early stages of this thread, I readily admit that I just took the p!ss. I do not expect that you were so naive as to begin such a thread and not recieve a few friendly jokes in return. However, since then you have asked me to stop, and I have done so. I have also provided some relevant and valuble resources that I doubt you will have had access to. We are in agreement that the sarcasm and (albeit quite entertaining) jibes at your expense should come to an end. Moving on from here, Rols, I am interested to know what you hope to gain from this series of posts?
Let me state my case:
I have not, or do not, disagree that there is an a priori reason for sunspots not to have some bearing on the movement of financial markets. The reasoning is infact quite sensible; Sun spots -> human behaviour -> feer / greed -> markets (in the simplest of terms).
However, I am of the position that if any deterministic relationship is to be established, there are weaknesses in your argument. Briefly, three come to mind:
* The paper you originally cited did not contain any results, only hypothesis.
* If Dow Jones send me a newspiece that states sunspots are on the decline, I am inclined to believe them. Furthermore, pulling up 5 year old evidence as a retort does not credit your case.
* In my opinion, you are measuring the wrong thing. Of the papers I provided (both published papers I hasten to add, as opposed to working papers), references were made to the buying and selling of stocks. It follows that, if any potential relationships between sunspots and the markets are to be examined, the strength of the dollar is the wrong dependant variable...
... A more appropriate alternative, I believe, would be the value of a stock index - something that is determined by the level of stock buying and selling (more sellers -> lower prices -> index falls, and vice versa), the hypothesis of your original paper. If you wish to examine any relationship betwen sunspots and the financial markets, I am of the view that recording the performance of the dollar in the foreign exchange markets is wholly inappropriate (especially in the current economic climate, if you will pardon the pun).
The question I am led to ask is then - "Rols, how seriously do you want to take it?". I am willing and able to engage in a serious discussion about any relationships between sunspots and financial markets. As I have mentioned, I do not see why there cannot be some causal relationship between the two - but for me to agree that there is a causal relationship, I first want to see some correlation in data that has a reasonable hypothesis a posteriori - hence the suggestion that equity indices would be a better place to start.
If you would like to investigate this issue further, and seriously, then you must be prepared to accept constructive criticism (for my destructive criticism, I apologise). This is how science is done. On the other hand, if all you would like to do is post the number of sunspots and and what you think will happen to the USD, I shall leave your thread well alone, disappointed that you are not prepared to defend your position.
Honestly rols, the last thing I want to do is offend. Although I am a cynic, I will quite readily reverse my view if there is sufficent evidence to suggest I am wrong - and the (what appear to be) random musings of someone on the unquantitative number of sunspots, and a dependant variable with no obvious hypothesis, are not sufficient evidence.
It's your thread mate; if you want me to leave it alone I will do. I am offering the opportunity to discuss this phenomena in a serious manner - if you are not willing to accept, then you must concede that your argument will carry little weight (and probably much derision) with the intelligent and experienced community of traders/scientists that inhabit T2W, however few we may be. Hypothesis are there to be challenged and proven, right or wrong.
Kindest Regards
Gordon.
In the early stages of this thread, I readily admit that I just took the p!ss. I do not expect that you were so naive as to begin such a thread and not recieve a few friendly jokes in return. However, since then you have asked me to stop, and I have done so. I have also provided some relevant and valuble resources that I doubt you will have had access to. We are in agreement that the sarcasm and (albeit quite entertaining) jibes at your expense should come to an end. Moving on from here, Rols, I am interested to know what you hope to gain from this series of posts?
Let me state my case:
I have not, or do not, disagree that there is an a priori reason for sunspots not to have some bearing on the movement of financial markets. The reasoning is infact quite sensible; Sun spots -> human behaviour -> feer / greed -> markets (in the simplest of terms).
However, I am of the position that if any deterministic relationship is to be established, there are weaknesses in your argument. Briefly, three come to mind:
* The paper you originally cited did not contain any results, only hypothesis.
* If Dow Jones send me a newspiece that states sunspots are on the decline, I am inclined to believe them. Furthermore, pulling up 5 year old evidence as a retort does not credit your case.
* In my opinion, you are measuring the wrong thing. Of the papers I provided (both published papers I hasten to add, as opposed to working papers), references were made to the buying and selling of stocks. It follows that, if any potential relationships between sunspots and the markets are to be examined, the strength of the dollar is the wrong dependant variable...
... A more appropriate alternative, I believe, would be the value of a stock index - something that is determined by the level of stock buying and selling (more sellers -> lower prices -> index falls, and vice versa), the hypothesis of your original paper. If you wish to examine any relationship betwen sunspots and the financial markets, I am of the view that recording the performance of the dollar in the foreign exchange markets is wholly inappropriate (especially in the current economic climate, if you will pardon the pun).
The question I am led to ask is then - "Rols, how seriously do you want to take it?". I am willing and able to engage in a serious discussion about any relationships between sunspots and financial markets. As I have mentioned, I do not see why there cannot be some causal relationship between the two - but for me to agree that there is a causal relationship, I first want to see some correlation in data that has a reasonable hypothesis a posteriori - hence the suggestion that equity indices would be a better place to start.
If you would like to investigate this issue further, and seriously, then you must be prepared to accept constructive criticism (for my destructive criticism, I apologise). This is how science is done. On the other hand, if all you would like to do is post the number of sunspots and and what you think will happen to the USD, I shall leave your thread well alone, disappointed that you are not prepared to defend your position.
Honestly rols, the last thing I want to do is offend. Although I am a cynic, I will quite readily reverse my view if there is sufficent evidence to suggest I am wrong - and the (what appear to be) random musings of someone on the unquantitative number of sunspots, and a dependant variable with no obvious hypothesis, are not sufficient evidence.
It's your thread mate; if you want me to leave it alone I will do. I am offering the opportunity to discuss this phenomena in a serious manner - if you are not willing to accept, then you must concede that your argument will carry little weight (and probably much derision) with the intelligent and experienced community of traders/scientists that inhabit T2W, however few we may be. Hypothesis are there to be challenged and proven, right or wrong.
Kindest Regards
Gordon.
MY Gecko,
My position is, I'm sorry if I upset the thread or undermined Rols' intent. That's it - I will stop. Further, unlike yourself, I have no wish to engage in debating a pseudo-science lifted from the pages of the Reader's Digest; life is too short.
Grant.
My position is, I'm sorry if I upset the thread or undermined Rols' intent. That's it - I will stop. Further, unlike yourself, I have no wish to engage in debating a pseudo-science lifted from the pages of the Reader's Digest; life is too short.
Grant.
While I'm exceedingly skeptical of anything astrological, there may be some causal link between solar and lunar phenomena and markets. Kratz and McCormick devote a chapter (complete with C++ code) to it in "The Encyclopedia of Trading Strategies" and conclude that
I haven't read the chapter yet, so I'm not recommending it, but it might be an interesting read for somebody into this sort of thing.
I haven't read the chapter yet, so I'm not recommending it, but it might be an interesting read for somebody into this sort of thing.
rols
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Thank you for a most impressive response.
Firstly we both agree that the Sun does feature significantly in our lives and it is fact that geomagnetism is a real force. A look at the decline in the dollar over the last 7 years and the corresponding decline in sunspots is interesting but fairly useless in a conventional sense. Not unlike the decline of pirates and global warming.
If you had bought USD when I first suggested then today's account balance would be looking good, would it not?
This thread was a light hearted attempt to display in an ironic fashion how easy it is to find a cause and effect pattern for trading from just about anything we care to focus our attention on. By coincidence Derren Brown conducted an experiment last night along the same lines.
The interesting part for me is that when we do focus on something seemingly unrelated to trading then it frees up an intuitive part of the brain. That has to be a good thing because IMO one element of success in trading is the happy marriage of free thinking and rigorous discipline at the same same. A curious paradox but a perfect analogy of the millions of dichotomous thought processes that take part in the brain every second. Through this neuro chemical process the brain self references itself and derives complex meaning and order by way of our external maps and metaphors. In this case sunspots.
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JTrader
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What a complete waste of time for someone to have to type all this with regard to bloody sunspots, and any relevance they will not have to trading
.
rols
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What a complete waste of time for someone to have to type all this with regard to bloody sunspots, and any relevance they will not have to trading
Yes JT, quite. :cheesy:
How do you feel about "Big Brother"
Poll: Rugby, one ball, two different codes, which do you prefer?
Why Does It Always Rain On Me
If you spend your trading day alone, does your mind slow down?
Goodbye - For Now
Blondes or Brunettes. Which do you prefer?
Poll: Whats your favourite UK regional accent?
Inventions - why did it take soooo long to make it?
The Holiest Grail possible -
If TV numbs the brain, i wonder what - looking at a monitor for 8 hours a day - does?
Is your chart on drugs?
Accountancy careers
How much of a (mini-pool) addict are you?
RedGreenBen
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I'm a scientist, but my reply is going to be very unscientific...
Sunspots.... Nonsense.
Moon-phase.... Nonsense.
Weather..... Weak correlation (with stock indices, slightly stronger with grains)
I've read the papers with a critical mind, I've laughed at the pseudo-science, I've been impressed by the ocassional decent bit of analysis.
Unfortunately I don't have the time, and you probably don't have the boredom threshold, to reproduce all the arguments - and lack of them - here. But having spent the time to do the research thought it was worth reproducing the 'executive summary'
Sunspots.... Nonsense.
Moon-phase.... Nonsense.
Weather..... Weak correlation (with stock indices, slightly stronger with grains
)I've read the papers with a critical mind, I've laughed at the pseudo-science, I've been impressed by the ocassional decent bit of analysis.
Unfortunately I don't have the time, and you probably don't have the boredom threshold, to reproduce all the arguments - and lack of them - here. But having spent the time to do the research thought it was worth reproducing the 'executive summary'
JTrader
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Yes, I've started a ferw quality threads, such as the accountancy careers one, that many have found helpful. The majority of the rest you will see, have been in the foyer
.This dross thread that your currently "on" with, is in the trading section of T2W, giving members the impression its a serious thread, whereas the initiated among us are pretty sure its a wind up that belongs in the "jokes and humour" section.
yawn::-0:clover:But like I said, it is funny & entertaining, so i don't have any real issues with it
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rols
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Yes, I've started a ferw quality threads, such as the accountancy careers one, that many have found helpful. The majority of the rest you will see, have been in the foyer
This dross thread that your currently "on" with, is in the trading section of T2W, giving members the impression its a serious thread, whereas the initiated among us are pretty sure its a wind up that belongs in the "jokes and humour" section.
But like I said, it is funny & entertaining, so i don't have any real issues with it
Thank God for that! (Deep sighs of relief and gratitude)
Perhaps if you would care to read post 49?
:cheesy::cheesy::cheesy:
JTrader
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Thank God for that! (Deep sighs of relief and gratitude)
Perhaps if you would care to read post 49?
:cheesy::cheesy::cheesy:
Awhhhh, bless him
:clover:.Its really good this thread rols, and i'm sure lots of people are learning lots of useful trading related info from it. Keep it going mate, this is a sterling effort, you're doing a really good job :clover:
.T2W would be not the same without the input of members of your calibre :clover:
.I'll stop interupting now. Sorry mate for interupting :clover:
.
rols
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Awhhhh, bless him
Its really good this thread rols, and i'm sure lots of people are learning lots of useful trading related info from it. Keep it going mate, this is a sterling effort, you're doing a really good job :clover:
T2W would be not the same without the input of members of your calibre :clover:
I'll stop interupting now. Sorry mate for interupting :clover:
It's his Mum I feel sorry for.......
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