Sugar and not only

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Feb 12, 2016
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#1
Sugar is in contango since last 2 years and it remains in contango till march 2017. Since may 2017 and going on, it is in backwardation http://www.barchart.com/commodityfutures/Sugar_#11_Futures/SB?search=SB* .
Does anyone understand this strange phenomenon?
When we arrive at march 2017 will it still be in backwardation or will turn again in contango?
How is it possible that the same commodity stays for a long period in contango and for another long period (not a few days or weeks) in backwardation?
I think that a certain commododity has its proper features so it is always in contango or always in backwaradtion (except brief speculative periods). Why not?
 
Last edited:
Nov 22, 2008
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#2
Sugar is in contango since last 2 years and it remains in contango till march 2017. Since may 2017 and going on, it is in backwardation http://www.barchart.com/commodityfutures/Sugar_#11_Futures/SB?search=SB* .
Does anyone understand this strange phenomenon?
When we arrive at march 2017 will it still be in backwardation or will turn again in contango?
How is it possible that the same commodity stays for a long period in contango and for another long period (not a few days or weeks) in backwardation?
I think that a certain commododity has its proper features so it is always in contango or always in backwaradtion (except brief speculative periods). Why not?
From what i can see on the chart http://www.stock-trkr.co.uk/live-charts/commodities/sugar-live-chart it has been in a continual uptrend all year.
 
Jan 8, 2017
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#3
Let us look at sugar M-grade continuos futures contract.

Big complex correction up until 2011. Correction is over.
Why is over and why complex ? Chart below.

Now something fell down since 2011 year. Correction A-B-C, triangles,
correction is over. Chart below.

Now we are moving higher. Impulse up, wave is not over yet - there
will be wave 5 up, above wave 3 top.

First impulse will end, correction will end and sugar arise will continue above current tops.
Close look at the current waves, searching for wave 5 start. Chart
below.

Conclusion: any deep drop toward 0.18 is a good place to BUY. Price
will not fall deeply if wave 4 is still running, target - end of wave 5, above wave 3 top. Sell your BUY there, take cash and wait.\
Anyone can use microlots to open BUY position. It will cost you less,
than 10 US dollars.
You can get more precise and detailed sugar forecast at our web page in
"Products" area at page "Sugar".
Sugar and not only ? Anyone can ask questions about future moves for
GOLD, SUGAR, SILVER, Crude Oil, WHEAT here.
 

Oscar Reed

Well-known member
May 19, 2015
1,994
553
123
#4
Let us look at sugar M-grade continuos futures contract.

Big complex correction up until 2011. Correction is over.
Why is over and why complex ? Chart below.

Now something fell down since 2011 year. Correction A-B-C, triangles,
correction is over. Chart below.

Now we are moving higher. Impulse up, wave is not over yet - there
will be wave 5 up, above wave 3 top.

First impulse will end, correction will end and sugar arise will continue above current tops.
Close look at the current waves, searching for wave 5 start. Chart
below.

Conclusion: any deep drop toward 0.18 is a good place to BUY. Price
will not fall deeply if wave 4 is still running, target - end of wave 5, above wave 3 top. Sell your BUY there, take cash and wait.\
Anyone can use microlots to open BUY position. It will cost you less,
than 10 US dollars.
You can get more precise and detailed sugar forecast at our web page in
"Products" area at page "Sugar".
Sugar and not only ? Anyone can ask questions about future moves for
GOLD, SUGAR, SILVER, Crude Oil, WHEAT here.
2017 mate

New Year resolutions

The world is cutting back on sugar.

Once the resolutions broken then back to buying sugar.

Do you have any tips on salt and Pepper?
 
Jan 8, 2017
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#5
Tracking sugar.

Update for wave 4 sugar.

We have marked probable wave 4 as a-b-c zigzag. Wave "a" is short, wave "b" is and expanded flat correction with a
triangle in the middle, wave "c" is long and strong. This move has reached usual price target for wave 4 and we carefully may
treat wave 4 as already ended. The next variant - wave 4 can be a triangle, and we have seen its first part.
Current decisions:
1. Wave 4 is over. We should BUY at any drop, price will go beyond wave 3 top.
2. Wave 4 is not over, use any deep drop toward 0.18 to BUY.
More detailed article is at our page in "Products" -> "Sugar".
We keep on tracking sugar to catch any good possibility to BUY and use
final wave up - wave 5.
 
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Jan 8, 2017
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#6
Sugar anybody ?

Look ! What a nice view !​
Impulse wave up, its wave 4 is an expanded flat surface a-b-c with waves
count 3-3-5. Wave is ending, drop is large, wave 5 will start soon. Wave 5 usually goes beyond the end of wave 3.​
Does anybody have any will to BUY ? Buy now, use wave 5, SELL at any level above or equal to top of wave 3.​
 
Jan 8, 2017
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#7
26 january 2017. We present our apologies for our mistake.
Wave 1 is already over. You can't use its wave 5.​
How to mend it up - if someone has already bought sugar using our chart, he can sell it right now with a small profit and exit the market until the end of wave 2.​
Now wave 2 down is running. Wave 2 is making its wave "c". You can reopen your BUY at the end of wave "c". Now we are looking at Fib 0.618 level as a wave 2 target.​
 
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Jan 8, 2017
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#9
Sugar, probable five waves down.

Sugar has eventually shaped its waves form. Now we wait for a complete five waves down. Chart below.​
We assume current rise as a correctional wave (4), after wave (4) sugar should continue its fall with the
final move down - wave (5). This market is offering some SELL opportunity - to SELL sugar at the end of wave (4),
to HOLD this SELL all wave (5) down and to CLOSE at the end of wave (5).​
Let us make some assumptions about the form and price targets for wave (4).​
First is an initial triangle, suggesting the whole form of wave (4) as a zigzag A-B-C. Deep pullback in probable wave B helps us to define first wave boundaries. We can wait for a next upward move in wave C, as usual ends of waves and [d] serve us as price targets, because any reverse move tries to retrace ending triangle.

SELL setup: wait for a wave C end in a target space, SELL in target space and HOLD all wave (5) down, close SELL 1 point below wave (3) bottom.
As usual we track sugar and all other markets daily.​