Thanks for your answers guys !
May i ask you another question on this topic ?
- What is the most common reason for an acceleration ? ... A "big hand" has made a huge trade ? Or many small traders have made small trades at the same time please ?
Great question, but you will only really get an affirmative answer from those that trade order flow. The answer is YES you can definitely be in a position to anticipate the mentioned move in advance, based on the information you have available. But you need volume for this play.
Those that say there is no way to know, should restructure their answer to "They personally dont know how to ......blah blah" .
This is not a snipe at others, nor is it a criticism, its just a nudge to get people to remove any type of ego, you know just a bit of self honesty.
Volume tells you that there are (a few) that know whats going on, as price is marked up into the area which then creates the acceleration as you called it, but in fact it is late short sellers being forced to liquidate their positions that causes it. If no one knew, then no one would mark price up on the cheap. Think about it -
why would they do that if there was no (high probability) outcome for them to do so. Makes no sense at all. BUT we are led to believe that the markets are not designed to make sense, and many times, it is hard to decipher what is going on, so simply stay out. But this is not the case all the time, and this is when a day trader needs to be alert, as there are plenty of times in a session when there is an outcome that is "highly" predictable.
Back to chart -
So to the chart in question, attached is your chart in a different format; you can see we are making new lows on the day, decent volume coming in on A and B, so cool, we have sellers coming in, could even say they are in control. Then look what happens - we drift back up in a controlled manner, with volume drying up, this be telling us that sellers are backing off, not because of willingness, as why would they, this is a strong down move, making new lows on the day! But because they are running out of ammo. We then see a light test in the square (C). Great, so what? Well, doh, if traders are trapped short, and we have light liquidity, then they are at the MERCY of the smart players who know they can
buy at market into the area where shorts have stops, thus being able to guarantee an exit on their endeavour. So in advance the question is......... What type of acceleration would you expect to see - all in advance of course.
So back to those that replied its not possible - do you really believe that????
Its ok for others to say this cant be done, or cant be known, and thats cool, but some can, and do take these trades on a regular basis, and when you spot them, you will win pretty much every time, as it is a law of supply and demand on the most rawest piece of data available - ie the here and now! Here and now is what day trading is about, what is currently going on, who is trapped, where will they dump etc?
News has its place, and we are not talking here about knowing in advance which way we go ahead of data releases. This is TOTALLY different. Those that can see it - want to see it. Those that cant - well, they will never believe. No worries each to their own.
Back in Feb/March 2018 I traded fast moves (rarely longer than 5 mins in a trade) and posted some blotters also - off my head it was about 88% SR (8/10 trades per hour, roughly 80 trades) off a 5 second chart LOL, now there is no way I could do this without having a grasp on where to play, or should I say, where the smart money plays. I did this to show a mate of mine what could be done in a few hours a day in a faster market. This is not to show anything other than what is possible, not to showboat or anything like that, it is solely to show those interested in this style, what maybe possible by anticipation based on context.
The only intention of this post is to put another viewpoint across, maybe light the fuse??? Come to the darkside Luke
