Stock and other asset class picks

[bbmac]

On Friday I piled into LLoyds Banking Group (LLOY) @ 47p...instrument: Shares-Buy and Hold, time horizon 3-5 years, My target is £1.41 ie a theoretical 2:1 R:R

This stock is probably good value at this price even with it's current fundamentals and the wider global macro/fundie environment., and certainly the potential upside reward versus the potential downside (the risk) is attractive across the time horizon indicated.

Feel free to use this thread to add your own advice and in so doing indicate

a. Which asset class/instrument
b. Time horizon
c. Why

G/L

 

[kevpries]

i am not sure...isn't the banking sector currently kind of...sluggish? I guess i see your point that in the very long run it will see some potential...plus lloyds seem retty stable institution...but even then. Agai, can't say - i am not much into fundamental analysis though i believe it has potential. good luck thogh.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

Lack of patience means that you are going to miss a good buy when it's 27p. The fallacy of penny shares is that they can't go lower. But they do.

 

[bbmac]

Ain't that the thing about choosing to buy physical shares over other trading instruments given the potential downside -versus- the 3-5 years upside potential?... there is no stop! Lol.

Lack of patience means that you are going to miss a good buy when it's 27p. The fallacy of penny shares is that they can't go lower. But they do.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

If you are patient enough to wait 3-5 years for a profit, then waiting 3-5 months for a lower price or better market condition shouldn't be too hard. The market is stampeding out of the banks for a reason. Now is not the time to tell the market it is wrong.

 

[bbmac]

Absolutely. It seems to me that re LLoyds the new Chief Exec is getting all the 'known' bad news out the way at the front end of his tenure...his strategic review will be the 1st real test and that is published in 30th June, so will see how the market recievs that re the share price..of course the lonegre term 3-5 year horizon very much depends on how the economo/recovery goes over that time. Another note of interest is that his remuneration package really kicks in when the share price reaches £1.40.

G/L

If you are patient enough to wait 3-5 years for a profit, then waiting 3-5 months for a lower price or better market condition shouldn't be too hard. The market is stampeding out of the banks for a reason. Now is not the time to tell the market it is wrong.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

I think you are going to find out like I did that company fundamentals are irrelevant in the face of a macro economic tsunami.

 

[bbmac]

The question is over the 3-5 year timescale I outlined, do you think that the 47p price will be bettered ?

I think you are going to find out like I did that company fundamentals are irrelevant in the face of a macro economic tsunami.

 

[glyder]

I know someone who has got very loaded up on LLoyds shares on and off over the last 2/3 years and,
whenever I discuss it with him I can never see any good reason to hold them.
Our last discussion was Friday, as usual I listed all the bad news items, both company
and economically related in favour of my argument against buying.
The list was a long and real but it was as I got to the end of it I had a light bulb click on...
if all these factors are known, even to me with only a passing interest, they are to a large extent factored into the price. I was arguing against a buying opportunity that must be somewhere nearby (so long as you believe the company will continue to exist).

 

[BeginnerJoe]

The question is over the 3-5 year timescale I outlined, do you think that the 47p price will be bettered ?

Well, all the ground work has been done for a 10% market crash. Do you think lloyds can resist this ? I don't think you have to wait long to find out. When the market goes hysterical, fundamentals go out of the window.

 

[bbmac]

You didn't answer the question.

Well, all the ground work has been done for a 10% market crash. Do you think lloyds can resist this ? I don't think you have to wait long to find out. When the market goes hysterical, fundamentals go out of the window.

 

[cr6196]

why is your target £1.41? i would be wary for two reasons: one, unless your talking to management, banks are a black box (I can see why you wouldn't mind this tho as people are probablly too cautious about this overall). two, valuation is tough because historical performance is completely irrelevant. the only upside I can think of is that the company was pretty agressive in writing off that loan insurance stuff. i would be wary though, the banks are an extremely popular choice for retail investors who don't understand whats happening...even some people in the industry like UBS don't get it at all. returns to shareholders are going to be around 10% going forward at most, paying book would be generous considering you don't know whats inside and leverage needed.

more generally, your right to look at the price, ignore all this bull**** about trying to time the market atm. time arb is the way to go. retail looks like it will be interesting for a few months but there isn't a lot out there...shipping looks kind of ok-ish too.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

You didn't answer the question.

Given the price as well as the market itself are in the middle of a collapse. It will be bettered from tomorrow on. But I guess you know that already or you wouldn't have set your target out to 5 years.

 

[Doomberg]

LLOY are a great buy imo, bank shares are something i have done well from.....

If you really want to take some risks! Then buy Bank Of Ireland at 12c!

I have a limit long placed at €0.12,25

 

[cr6196]

LLOY are a great buy imo, bank shares are something i have done well from.....

If you really want to take some risks! Then buy Bank Of Ireland at 12c!

I have a limit long placed at €0.12,25

why are they a great buy? why buy bank of ireland?

 

[BeginnerJoe]

why are they a great buy? why buy bank of ireland?

They are great because they only need to move €0.12 to double your money ?

 

[JRP2891]

There's some real pearls of investing wisdom on this thread!

 

[BeginnerJoe]

You didn't answer the question.

As promised, Lloyds is bettered at below 47 today. Because the market correction is still waiting to happen in the near term, there is still risk of a sizable down side to the price.

 

[leonarda]

On Friday I piled into LLoyds Banking Group (LLOY) @ 47p...instrument: Shares-Buy and Hold, time horizon 3-5 years, My target is £1.41 ie a theoretical 2:1 R:R

This stock is probably good value at this price even with it's current fundamentals and the wider global macro/fundie environment., and certainly the potential upside reward versus the potential downside (the risk) is attractive across the time horizon indicated.

Feel free to use this thread to add your own advice and in so doing indicate

a. Which asset class/instrument
b. Time horizon
c. Why

G/L

I do hope you're averaging down...!

 

[bbmac]

Lol, no need My time horizon (as outlined in my 1st post )is 3-5years, I am relaxed about what the oscillations of price are and maybe to come within that period between 0.47p entry and my 1.41 target.

G/L

I do hope you're averaging down...!