spanish89...

[arabianights]

This is why we strive to have an 'edge' though. My losses, in my head, aren't losses, nor bad luck and the reason they occurred is irrelevent to me. Just another set in the sequence of my more often than not financially increasing business plan.

If you owned a shop, and one day, you only had 4 customers, 3 days, 25 and one day 150, is that bad/good luck or just the ratio of people in need of your product at any given time.

If you're going to be that perverse it's going to end up with quantum physics I think... then luck will win

 

[new_trader]

This is why we strive to have an 'edge' though. My losses, in my head, aren't losses, nor bad luck and the reason they occurred is irrelevent to me. Just another set in the sequence of my more often than not financially increasing business plan.

If you owned a shop, and one day, you only had 4 customers, 3 days, 25 and one day 150, is that bad/good luck or just the ratio of people in need of your product at any given time.

The customers you get depends on the goods or services you provide. You might be lucky in that the goods or services you provide might happen to be in demand at the time you start up, a bit like Microsoft with the Altair and then IBM. However, if Bill Gates wasn't as shrewd as he is we wouldn't need to re-boot a computer on every desk and in every home today.

 

[wasp]

I just can't do it and see it that way.

To me this is business. I have a solid plan and it will do X rather than Y on average x% of the time.

To say it was lucky/unlucky is too much like gambling.... ''Ooh, theres some resistance, I'll go short and try my luck'', just not how I could trade personally.

 

[FXSCALPER2]

Wasp,

Yes you should have plans and all that bollox, of course. But things happen by pure chance. You kidding me with this 'there is no luck' stuff? I was driving down the M11 once when I saw a lorry overturned across the central reservation and killed loads of people on the other side of the motor way. Sh!t happens, of course it does.

 

[wasp]

Sh1t happens of course it does but I attribute none of my 'losses' to bad luck, just my plan accounts for these occurrences and in order to be methodical, without emotion and clear, clinical and on top of your trading game, you can't put it all down to luck like S89 has... He screwed up, there was no bad luck involved.

 

[new_trader]

Trading is a SKILL

Sh1t happens of course it does but I attribute none of my 'losses' to bad luck, just my plan accounts for these occurrences and in order to be methodical, without emotion and clear, clinical and on top of your trading game, you can't put it all down to luck like S89 has... He screwed up, there was no bad luck involved.

I agree. Moving stops isn't bad luck. Trading without stops isn't bad luck. You need skill to enter a trade when you see the opportunity for profit and you need skill to close the trade when you have misjudged. You can’t depend on luck for either of these to occur on a consistent basis.

 

[wasp]

Originally Posted by Spanish89
But everyone has publicly seen how much **** i have had since this year started, evry single movement.

*I called buy oil at $37 on saturday 1day after the russian gas thing, with target 46. But couldnt myself cos cant do weekend trades.

Such is life for EVERYONE!

*I sold at $47 with target in 44.62 and 39.26, got cautious and took loss at 49, then had market crash down to the low 42s the same day.

Own stupidity to not have a solid plan or courage in ones convictions.

*I then tried to buy when it fell from same move to low 38s, just to have it crash down more to low 30s,
just to have it then close the contract at $40.

Got it wrong. End of.

*I then bought it at the 41 lows with target 43s, held it for 4hours just to cash in when it spiked $1 in few seconds, as it was too fast and so should have pulledback,
but instead it went straight to my target of what would have been nearly £2000, that i desperately neede for my then 4k account.
But instead i sold the spike, and took loss to end only break even for the day.

Own stupid fault again...

*Had internet down all next day so missed having the perfect head n shoulders form at $32, the ultimate low.

Professionals account for this with a back up.

*I then watched and waited patiently as it spiked from 41s to mid 45s, sold there at head n shoulders just 1spike before the top, with target high 43s, just to have it rise to over $1 and i took loss at 46.90,
just to have it fall down again to breakeven.

Lifes a bitch, improve your perception and trading.

*I then waited patiently and let it rise all the way up to the mid 48s, let it form a big heavy top there,
and then got my sell in at 47.86 barley 16seconds before it crashed down off the right shoulder,
but i took profit after just 60ticks drop from my entyr (was $1 from thw start of that down move),
since with all the constant buying that had been going on for no fundamental or technical reason, i though this spike would be bought up again.
Yet it crashed down to my target, so missed over £1000 again.

Serves him right for not having a solid reasoning.

*I then waited patiently as it crashed down from what was the mid 48s down to the mid 43s, (without my perfect entered sell and the £2,600 it was worth),
just to buy at the head n shoulders form at the low 43s, this time i didnt cash in when it spiked up 60ticks like i had done the previous week when i missed the 2k,
but this time after all the **** id been having since the year started i really thought my luck couldnt get any worse,
YET the thing then didnt rise when the dow, euro and anti dollar pairs, and even the other energy things rose,
didnt rise overnight or this morning when the dow n others rose even more,
YET as soon as i took the loss on a huge huge inventory build (the 2nd biggest build ever in history),
the ****ing thing started rising back up!!!

This is not bad luck, its lack of planning and understanding and ignorance. We could all say this bout lots of things........

Remember Bid-A-Tool.... he was right, it just went 1000 points against him first....

Trading is skill, not luck/unlucky... S89 is gambling, end of, and badly!

 

[shadowninja]

WRT Spanish, Wasp is right. Spanish blames everyone but himself.

 

[foredog]

WRT Spanish, Wasp is right. Spanish blames everyone but himself.

That's what they said on that silly BBc program when the ones losing money walked off.....funny that

 

[FXSCALPER2]

Sh1t happens of course it does but I attribute none of my 'losses' to bad luck, just my plan accounts for these occurrences and in order to be methodical, without emotion and clear, clinical and on top of your trading game, you can't put it all down to luck like S89 has... He screwed up, there was no bad luck involved.

It is one thing to say that you can have a plan and be prepared, but it is another, completely false, thing to say there is no such thing as luck. I am not even talking about luck in trading, but all the sh!t that happens to all sorts of people all the time.

Look at it this way: how does someone who practically uses no stops last for months? By luck, of course. You can fix that by having a stop and getting some skill or giving up etc, but you can also find yourself chilling by the beach with your kids when the tsunami hits.

 

[FXSCALPER2]

WRT Spanish, Wasp is right. Spanish blames everyone but himself.

Yes, but everyone agrees with wasp about Spanish. The thing I am failing to see is how it follows luck doesn't exist because Spanish has no skills.

 

[wasp]

okay FX, you got me, some times in life, sh!t happens and you are unlucky to be in the wrong place at the wrong time etc but in trading there are no excuses. One has to take responsibility.

 

[N Rothschild]

so luck does exist!

 

[Hoggums]

Yes, but everyone agrees with wasp about Spanish. The thing I am failing to see is how it follows luck doesn't exist because Spanish has no skills.

I don't see that as the argument. Good luck is a set of outcomes that is significantly above what is expected to be the average - bad luck conversely so. But as with all events - there is a statistical probably of ALL events - no matter how small.

I think the point trying to be made that was luck was nothing to do with SPanish's demise. It was merely the most probable consequence of his actions and the only way for him to survive was to continue being lucky i.e. getting it right - either straight away or after going 600 points into loss. Had nothing to do with bad luck at all. Law of probability states that he was going to get more than 1 bad trade in a row.

If someone could post the link to the online equity curve generator thingy and put in a profit factor of 0.5 or less they will see the huge win ratio they will need to make a profit.

 

[Charlton]

Yes, but everyone agrees with wasp about Spanish. The thing I am failing to see is how it follows luck doesn't exist because Spanish has no skills.

There are events in life including trading that one might call "luck" or might be called "unpredicable" (unless of course you are a net present time practictioner and everything is known in advance).

Spanish, with his frequent recourse to the blame and luck excuses, demonstrates that he has not yet matured as a trader.

Only when he learns to accept responsibility for his own actions, in both trading and life in general, will he be able to truly rectify his problems and progress to a better and more advanced state.

Charlton

 

[zupcon]

Yes, but everyone agrees with wasp about Spanish. The thing I am failing to see is how it follows luck doesn't exist because Spanish has no skills.

I actually disagree with Wasp on this point. This is how it is. There are probabilities, and anyone who doesnt understand how these play out needs to spend a few hours flipping coins or pulling coloured marbles out of a bag in order to get a grip of the law of large numbers.

Then there's this thing we call luck, North5 hit the nail on the head, its OUR FEELINGS and RESPONSES to how those probabilities are playing out, and WE get to control those, or not control those emotions.

The reason I disagree with Wasp is that Spanish relies 100% on favourable probabilities or "luck", he has no edge, he has no plan, and its clear he does not have the faintest clue what he's doing, he wont listen to advide, and he cant control emotions, therefore his entire performance is based on luck. Small targets and huge stop losses result in a high win rate, its trading 101. At the moment the probabilities are just doing what they do, and he's experiencing a run of losing trades as the probabilities revert back to the mean.

For what its worth, I do believe in the element of luck, it has a massive effect, kind of like a butterfly flapping its wings in Asia causing a storm in Candada, but this isnt what S89 is experiencing, he's just a fool witnessing a reversion to the mean.

 

[Masquerade]

More interestingly - is there some way we can get TD or someone at futex to rig up some cameras so we can watch Spanish's interview online if for some bizarre reason he gets one?

 

[arabianights]

lol Masq you failed at your futex interview.... how would you have liked people filming it so we could all laugh at you?

 

[Masquerade]

lol Masq you failed at your futex interview.... how would you have liked people filming it so we could all laugh at you?

I didn't fail - I just wasn't suitable Besides there was nothing to laugh about.

I still want to see the look on their faces when he explains his strategy for stop losses.

Ps. Quit trying to say the opposite to everything; it's tedious and you're becoming predictable (which i'm sure you hate)

 

[arabianights]

All I'm saying is that you're in very little position to mock him... see it as needless cruelty.

Ps. **** off