Shorting Shipping?

[out4paper]

I'm just lookin for some thoughts on whats going on in my head right now..

Oil was at 77/ barrel not to long ago.. now over 100/ barrel.. people insisting its only going to go higher.. since this is a speculators market.. they will make it a self fulfilling prophecy.. now if oil keeps climbing.. wouldn't it make sense to short the shipping industry?? Europe is in recession an that will have an effect on the US.. less things being shipped.. oil higher making shipping more costly.. I don't really care about the US economic data pointing in a good direction because your not going to feel the effects of europe till its later.. so i think the data pointing in a good direction on the US will be short lived.. I'm thinking if oil hits 110-125/ barrel than shorting US shipping companies will work out good.. especially with the combined recession / oil..

If I do decide to go in this direction does anyone have a few US shipping companies I could investigate or any suggestions reguarding this play?

 

[Big_P]

I think you're too late to the party ...

The shipping industry has been on it's backside for the last 6 months/1 year and shipping companies like General Maritime are effectively bankrupt now anyway.

And in my opinion, it's a dangerous play at this time of year anyway. Going into the winter months you tend to get a lot of delays/ bad weather etc which slows up the load/discharge process and therefore decreases the supply of ships... so if anything, returns for ship owners are more likely to improve than diminish in the next few months.

But this is all in my very humble opinion.

 

[out4paper]

Thank you for your response.. I should have clarified I was talking more about semi shipping across the states than bulk shippers.. I know that dry bulk shippers have this factored in.. but the quick rise in crude and the now 100% guarantee europe is in recession.. the employement in USA dipped but i'm thinking that is short lived holiday additions.. i'm looking at a play on shipping across the states via semi's

I think you're too late to the party ...

The shipping industry has been on it's backside for the last 6 months/1 year and shipping companies like General Maritime are effectively bankrupt now anyway.

And in my opinion, it's a dangerous play at this time of year anyway. Going into the winter months you tend to get a lot of delays/ bad weather etc which slows up the load/discharge process and therefore decreases the supply of ships... so if anything, returns for ship owners are more likely to improve than diminish in the next few months.

But this is all in my very humble opinion.

 

[Albert Carey]

Isn't crude consumptions fairly inelastic? I think you should better look to find out if there is a large supply of new tankers on the way. That can drive down rates. But consumption won't go down that much because of price.

 

[anley]

Oil was at 77/ barrel not to long ago.. now over 100/ barrel.. people insisting its only going to go higher.

Careful with that because when it was at $77 most people were saying it can only go lower.

If price were to drop say $10-$20, most of those currently bullish would turn bearish............