See the light moment!

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Tubbs

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Today I had a kind of see the light moment. Since then I have placed 3 trades all good winners (simulated of course). It's quite an amazingly simple technique. Requires the nerves of steel though.

Has anyone noticed how a 60 point range in the dow is the usual trading bracket. That, I think, is one of the best bits of trading info I have ever come across - myself.

Today follows perfectly - bracket is 10760 - 10700 - so far
 
I thought at one time that blocks of 35points looked good. So I looked at moves of 35,70,105,140 etc. Didn't find a reliable way to make money from it though.
 
Make that 4 good trades - the bracket broke at 700 so I got a few more squids - virtual of course
 
I'm using Market Profile to determine bracket extremes and then trade off those. It's amazing how these can act- often the bracket is around 60 - 70 points.
 
"As usual". Don't do it Tubbs. You've made over 4 trades on the Doh Jonesy tonight? Why? I sincerely hope you make something of your findings, but why did you go 'trade crazy'? 'Nipping' in and out doesn't even suit your 'moment of clarity'. Why don't you just make one trade each day, don't force it though, if you don't see it don't force it. Remember, once a day! Good trading, Tubbs. Tubbs, remember...."once a day....if it's there!".
 
Rudeboy: nail - head.

It is a definite pattern though. If I stuck to the clear couple of trades a day - or just the single I would probably be quite successful!

That's what I'll work on. It is just so tempting though.........
 
Hello, Tubbs. It's hard to focus properly with virtual money. Temptation never works. It's obviously a very grey area when faced with the dicision of when to trade for real. Can you afford the Dow in reality? Your obviously not that confident or competent yet, and i don't mean to sound patronising when i say this, just realistic. I would love to tell you to trade for real, but keep it as small as you can. Something tells me you have to start with SB though, and look at longer timeframes, but, your not looking at that are you. IB is definately all wrong for you at the moment, but that's just my own opinion. So what would i do in your shoes? Look at longer timeframes to trade and keep it to the absolute minimum (as small as you possibly can). In the end, it's all up to you. Good luck.
 
Sorry Rudeboy, I don't understand the terms SB and IB. spreadbet maybe - still don't know IB. Your post isn't patronising at all. The depressing thing is that I have been around this lark for some time now. I'm not really getting any better. The reason why I look intraday is that I think the markets are essentially chaotic & therefore the chaos is just speeded up a bit - speeds up the things that I do right & wrong.
 
Tubbs said:
Sorry Rudeboy, I don't understand the terms SB and IB. spreadbet maybe - still don't know IB. Your post isn't patronising at all. The depressing thing is that I have been around this lark for some time now. I'm not really getting any better. The reason why I look intraday is that I think the markets are essentially chaotic & therefore the chaos is just speeded up a bit - speeds up the things that I do right & wrong.
Click to expand...
If you're not get any better, wouldn't it make sense to slow down your bleed and trade a longer timeframe until you figure out what needs to change? Or better yet, stop trading until you have done that?
 
speeds up the things that I do right & wrong
Click to expand...

In theory having many trades should make the learning curve quicker as long as time is given to reflecting on trades.

depressing thing is that I have been around this lark for some time now
Click to expand...

I believe it takes a lot longer than most people would care to admit.
 
Tubbs said:
Today I had a kind of see the light moment. Since then I have placed 3 trades all good winners (simulated of course). It's quite an amazingly simple technique. Requires the nerves of steel though.

Has anyone noticed how a 60 point range in the dow is the usual trading bracket. That, I think, is one of the best bits of trading info I have ever come across - myself.

Today follows perfectly - bracket is 10760 - 10700 - so far
Click to expand...


Tubbs - the following info may be of interest :-

So far this week the average span of the DOW Dec Future has been 60.75 points.
week ending 11/11/05 it was 84.2
week ending 04/11 it was 87
week ending 28/10 it was 136.2
21/10 148.2
14/10 115.6
08/10 116.2
01/10 98.2
24/09 113.8
17/09 76.8
10/09 84.75
03/09 120.6
27/08 95.4
20/08 96.8
13/08 102.8
06/08 70.8
29/07 77.4

Guess what I'm trying to say is that a 60-point band on a day is not going to last long. . . .. .. ..


rgds
 
Hey apples - you're right - I think the 60 range this is certainly quite a recent thing - surely to do with current volatility. Nice thought though......

To be fair though it was not the range of the DOW but an average push from a given high/low to another reaction high/low. This could conceivably be intraday.
 
if you need nerves of steel , then it is not good trading . good trading is more or less smooth and emotionless.

You don't use a stop that's your problem and 60 points is cheap on the dow .
 
you are noticing the properties of the statistical normal distribution - think of it this way, as an example, for simplicity - on average, the market doesn't move on a daily basis, i.e. the average daily return on the dow is 0% - however, the standard deviation is 1%, i.e. there is a roughly 50/50 chance of it going up 1% or down 1%, on average - now the 1% off the approx. 10000 dow is 100 pts which is a typical daily range for the DOW, which can contract or expand depending on volatility - so, take the opening price as the middle value (i.e. if you do an analysis of the daily data, you will see that on average the market opens and closes in the middle of the daily range) - then the "average" range band will be between 50 pts above the open and 50pts below the open - it is not surprising to see a lot of commotion or "noise" around these levels as i presume they figure in prominently not only in statistical trading models but also in risk management models, i.e. hedgers, banks etc etc using 1 standard deviation level as thresholds for their risk control purposes. - you can also think of this 100pt range band not from the opening price, but from previous day's close, or from previous day's high or low - they may act as equally logical pivot levels... - all the best.
 
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