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Succes

http://www.quotationspage.com/search.php3?homesearch=succes

Before anything else, preparation is the key to success.
Alexander Graham Bell (1847 - 1922)

The man of virtue makes the difficulty to be overcome his first business, and success only a subsequent consideration.
Confucius (551 BC - 479 BC), The Confucian Analects

If A is success in life, then A equals x plus y plus z. Work is x; y is play; and z is keeping your mouth shut.
Albert Einstein (1879 - 1955), Observer, Jan. 15, 1950
 
luck (r.wIseman)

Lucky people generate their own good fortune via 4 basic principles:
1. they are skilled at creating and noticing chance opportunities;
2. make lucky decisions by listening to their intuition;
3. create self-fulfiling prohesies via positive expectations;
4. adopt a resilient attitude that transforms bad into good.
 
recent strenght+weakness march.24.06

R3=3660
R2=3645
R1=3625
S1=3575
S2=3550
S3=3535

economic news
Durable Goods Orders 8:30 ET
New Home Sales 10:00 ET
 

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system march 23 and 24 06

entry=blue
stop=green
 

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prep27-03

economic news

FOMC Meeting Begins
2:30 ET

R3=3690
R2=3660
R1=3640
S1=3580
S2=3555
S3=3530

todayrange=3659-3626=33
 

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prep 28/mrch/06

R3=
R2=3690
R1=3660
S1=3590
S2=3550
S3=3530

economic news
ICSC-UBS Store Sales 7:45 ET
Redbook 8:55 ET
Consumer Confidence 10:00 ET
FOMC Announcement 2:15 ET
 

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prep 29/mrch/06

R3=3660
R2=3620
R1=3590
S1=3560
S2=3550
S3=3530

economic news
MBA Purchase Applications 7:00 ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 ET
 

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prep 30/mrch/06

R3=3750
R2=3700
R1=3670
S1=3660
S2=3640
S3=3620

economic news
-Corporate Profits 8:30 ET
-GDP 8:30 ET
-Jobless Claims 8:30 ET
-Help Wanted Index 10:00 ET
-EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 ET
-Farm Prices 3:00 ET
 

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prep 31/mrch/06

R3=3750
R2=3725
R1=3690
S1=3660
S2=3625
S3=3595

economic news
Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 ET
Consumer Sentiment 9:45 ET
Factory Orders 10:00 ET
NAPM-Chicago 10:00 ET
 

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Curtis ;)

Just looking at your system chart there.
Are you doing this 'live' , or marking it up in 'hindsight' ?

Saw your entry and your stop ...didn't see exits , or is this your stops inclusive of both entry and exits ?
 
chump said:
Curtis ;)

Just looking at your system chart there.
Are you doing this 'live' , or marking it up in 'hindsight' ?

Saw your entry and your stop ...didn't see exits , or is this your stops inclusive of both entry and exits ?

Post 27 is 100% mark-up in hindsight.
Wasn't able to trade SMH in real-time on those days.
Instead I used the charts to cement my take on where the entry trigger was and where to place an initial stop.

Minimum conditions for entry and istop are taken mostly from this charts.
Although in real time I also use the dynamics of the SMH (and NQ) order-book and potential obstruction by nearby SR to help me decide to sit tight or take a position.

Besides the fixed 7cents candle SMH (post27), I also use a 3m(or 30tick) SMH chart to observe potential mini break-outs for sharp entries and for economical improved placement of initial stops. All in all, I can live with my current rules for entry and istop. So in the foreseeable future I will train to adhere to them 100% (real-time $) and only refine them if improvement is obvious.

The Exit, in my case the trialling of open positions, is done as much as possible on the
actual unfolding of price after my entry. The micro dynamic in the order-books and the strength or weakness of micro sr are key. Biggest trialling-issue is that I kill potential by trialling my stops to tightly. Will have to reflect and improve this going forward.

Thanks for giving me a change to formulate :D
 
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mr.marcus said:
...superfly......you need to consider time to be a fundamental element to trading hence i would suggest although tick charts and range charts have a place in trading.....a time chart is a must.....also a volume chart is a better option over tick charts....if volume is not an option ..ie fx..then tick charts are the next best thing.......cheers mark j

....to add......i am thinking that volume is not part of your trading?.....i was looking at your charts and can see a few trades which wouldn't have been taken if you were aware of the volume exchanging hands..these are some trades which i call "buying or selling into exhaustion"...you need to be aware when you are doing this.these are in fact a very high probability trade however the reward will be lessened and need to be traded as such.....hence you will need to adapt your thinking to the trade/energy of the moment....

mr.marcus.

I like the principle less is more. I try to keep the number of charts I watch to a vital minimum.
So lately I have been going back and forth between 30 tick and 3 minute chart.

For some time now the 3 minute has my preference. Volume is something i also look at on the 3 minute. Although I haven't found an organised way to use volume to make decisions.(see attached chart)

Being a short term trader, in real time my focus is:
"adapt to the current unfolding dynamics of the target market".
I find order-book dynamics quit helpful with this.

Regards
 

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"Biggest trialling-issue is that I kill potential by trialling my stops to tightly. "...now you know why some people say the exit is the most importan element. Not sure I fully agree with that sentiment. In my view the shorter the timeframe the more you have to get precision into evry part of the system.

If you are fully satisfied by your system this idea may be no use to you. When I was working on my short term system I used bar replay extensively. This is a fcaility in esignal ,byt it may be available in other software. This was extremely useful as it confined me to working with the sytem rules as though the action was unfolding real time as opposed to with 'hindsight' where if you are not careful you may start to introduce selective bias.
 
chump said:
When I was working on my short term system I used bar replay extensively. This is a fcaility in esignal ,byt it may be available in other software.

Im looking into Sierracharts now for this feature.

chump said:
"In my view the shorter the timeframe the more you have to get precision into evry part of the system.
100%

Good trading
 
crack

.
tsuntzu said:
I dont trade FX but futures, it took me a good few years to crack the game and my skill certainly extends to more than just trading break outs. A very simple answer to your question would be to ask yourself; if its that easy to make money in just three weeks trading beak-outs, why isn't the whole world doing it. Your going to have a lot of work in front of you and a whole world of pain too. There are no get rich quick schemes, however the market provides a very good conduit for money to flow from those who thinks its going to be easy, to those who have 'been around the block' a few times.

Good luck.
 
Perfection

Something worth reflecting on:

QUOTE=chump]I will say this again although I doubt it be will be anymore acceptable this time ....perspective passing itself off as a general law of applicability is not the mast to nail your colours to.

One persons personal ordeal for want of a better expression is just that ..one perspective.

Long and torturous are simply ill defined terms....a search for "perfection" that may say take a decade may simply be nothing more than an exciting apprenticeship period to some other people...whilst for others it is 'felt' to be "long"

torturous experience of having to learn about oneself may for another person be an highly satisfying process if that process is in harmony with that persons view of life....

this is much to do with the old viewpoint, is the semi filled glass of water half full or half empty...you see there is no right or wrong perspective as it all highly subjective .

However what is wrong is to take a single perspective and try to make it fit as being soley 'right' thereby imbuing it with some sense of being a Law fit for general applicability...it is not so .

Moreover it is highly possible to 'manufacture' a perspective to pursue a goal,. At the bottom line we are despite our complexity quite simple aniimals in other ways. We have the ability to create perpsectives that perform for us as a best 'fit' to apply to goals. Hence , my reference above to "harmony". I won't go on as there is more than enough clinical research on this topic that I do not have to defend it.[/QUOTE]
 
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I quote others only in order to better express myself.


~ Michel Eyquem de Montaigne 1533-92)
French essayist, considered highest expression of 16th century prose
 
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Optimized trade

.
North_Face said:
Thank you all for the responses thus far.

1) I was thinking about this today at work. Many times it helps me to get through things sorted out in my head by putting my thoughts down on paper. I realized that I have optimized my trade to such a degree that the number of trades that I take is less than I would like it to be. I have gotten my trade to where it is by refining my set-up over the years to a point where my losses are as small as possible and I see movement in the correct direction soon after entering the trade.

Justin Mamis discusses Price risk vs. Information risk in his book, "The Nature of Risk" I have read the book a number of times and determined the optimized trade for me. The more information that you require before entering a trade, the further you are from the proper stop point. Enter too early and you find your self being stopped out earlier and more often. That point is different for everyone, but for me I have found the point where my trading results are consistent and my own nature of risk is satisfied by the entry point and the amount of information risk that I have to give up in order to get it.

Jim Rogers talks about waiting for the money to be lying in the corner and then just goint and picking it up. Mark Weinstein talked about the Cheetah and how he will wait in the bushes for days in order to pick just the right gazelle that will put up the least amount of fight.

My trade has consistently yeilded profitable trades in the 60-65% range and avg. win/avg. loss in the range of 3-1 to 3.5-1. In order to get these results I have narrowed my signal so much that I do not get as many trades as I would like as well as stopping trading when overall market conditions do not warrant action.

The solution would be to loosen my trade parameters which would also likely mean that my win rate and avg win/avg loss would decline. Because I know the type of trader that I am and my comfort level with risk I think that I would have to develop a systematic approach to take trades with lower probabilites as it would not be in my trading nature to take them discretionarily. I hope that made sense.

#2) You mentioned a few personality characteristics in your post. Rule-Breaker, planner and reflective.

I dont know if that was just a random comment or whether you have read/done research on personality types and how they react to trading, but if you have some information on that ... please share some sources.

About 6 months ago at work, I took some training that revolved around the book, "Now, Discover Your Strengths", by Buckingham and Clifton. Basically, you take a 200 question test online and each question is timed with a maximum time of 20 seconds to read the question and chose one of two responses for each question. At the end, you are given your top 5 strengths in order, out of 34. I thought it was a nice exercise and was moderately surprised at the results. #'s 2 - 4 did not surprise me, but my top strength actually did.

They were (in order): Focus, Analytical, Responsibility, Intellection, Learner. I was not surprised that Empathy, Harmony, Inclusiveness etc... were not included, as I do much better working alone.

The point of all this is that your post made me remember the book and I plan to go back through and see how/if knowing these strengths may help me with my current thoughts on possibly changing up my trading a bit.

Another book, "Trading, Sex and Dying" talks about 13 personality types, but I did not get much out of that one.

Anyways, thanks for the thought provoking discussion.

North_Face
 
"They were (in order): Focus, Analytical, Responsibility, Intellection, Learner. I was not surprised that Empathy, Harmony, Inclusiveness etc... were not included, as I do much better working alone." .....I wouldn't swap the "empathy" for anything in that list !

When I play chess with my daughter she asks me "daddy how do you always seem to know what I am going to do?" ...how do I indeed ;) care to guess ?

If you play any strategic games how do you get an edge ? Rhetorical question , by anticipating what your opponent will do when faced with certain circumstances , but how do you make such an anticipatory projection ? care to guess ?
 
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