Rogue trader moved DOW & S&P lower...

My view of the drop is completely different from all of yours and so far fetched
its absurd.

Osama and his cohorts had all his sells in place knowing the markets would plummet on
a bomb going off in Times Square and killing thousands in the process.

The following days everybody would be cacking and panicking at all the
other potential bomb threats ready to go off in America.

The bobming failed but they thought they may as well throw some sells
in the market knowing it would freak to the big traders and HF's

Far fetched but potentially possible.

Ged
 
This response is littered with contradictions, dissembling and attempts at petty point scoring, so I'll leave you to bask in your pre-conceptions. Me, I'm fairly nuetral on any info. that comes my way (from whatever source). Does T/A work...for me... trading oil and forex? Hell yeah...:) Could I use my edge/skill set on indices and or equities? Havn't got the time to waste trying...good luck with that...

You seem to be under the impression my post was in another thread. I did not make an anti-TA post.

The issue at hand is program trading - your assertion that these systems 'must' be using S/R or other TA techniques are based (as I said) on your domain of knowledge, not on knowledge of what actually happens. It is misinformation.

Of course you cannot argue against what I posted because you simply have no idea what these algos do and so you are left to do what a lot of people do on teh interweb and just make stuff up. This is fine - we all know different stuff. We should not be making things up though, as there are children around.

A very small amount of research would show you what boring stuff these algos do. It is not what you think. Hence your inability to respond to the points in my post.

Go read that book - you will find it an enlightening experience
 
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:whistling
The debate about TA is already tired. TA is using any PAST movement of price to make your trade decisions. If you don't use TA, then you don't use a chart, and you aren't caring what this years high or low was, or yesterdays high or low, the trend direction, whether it is up or down since open, or any significant levels. If you do care, then you are using TA. Algos use TA.

It isn't relevant what "textbook TA crap says" just as it isn't relevant what Bloomberg has to say about the fundamentals. If you don't believe that algos use any past price data (and that could be 1 year ago, or 1 minute ago) to act upon, what do you believe they DO act upon?

Sigh... still no-one seems to want to learn what this program trading represents. Easier it is to just reproduce the inteweb factoid that there's all these smart computers predicting future prices and that quants exist to create clever models to aid in prediction.


Index Arbitrage is looking for price disparities between (for example) the S&P futures and the underlying stocks (or a basket that well enough represents the underlying to make the trade simpler)
Dynamic Hedging/Portfolio Insurance - Basically works like a smart put option. Not sure how prevelant this is now after it crashed the market in '87
Trade/Order Flow Automation - Splitting up large buy/sell orders combined with an attempt to attain a 'best' price such as TWAP/VWAP with the large order having minimal impact on the price. Done so as not to show the buyer/sellers hand on large orders. On a large buy, all orders would not necessarily be buys - the algo may sell at opportunities to get the price to tick down
HFT/Rebate Trading/Preadtory Algos This is a whole bunch of various forms but basically it's stepping in front of peoples trades to gain a tick and/or a rebate.

Now - I think we can all agree that none of the above requires any support or resistance, fibonacci sequences or any other part of traditional TA.

I am sure with a bit of research, people can find other types of Algos. The fact is, it isn't all about being predictive - it's about stepping in front of people, getting rebates and sneaking in large orders with minimal price impact.

Of course, we can also discuss quants, the internet definition of a quant is some superhero who comes up with smart combinations of mathematically derived hoo-ha to produce new price prediction models. Sadly, what they actually do is mostly work on invalid mathematical risk models which their trading departments ignore anyway :whistling
 
Algorithmic trading software being tricked into selling by evil men causing an algo selling frenzy. :shuriken:

or

Fed audit

or

Threatening to break up the big bad banks



Could result in...........-1000



Personally i would go with the theory about the trader who hit the B key instead of the M key by accident due to being distracted by hardcore tranny porn that his uncle sent him from Greece.
 
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Algorithmic trading software being tricked into selling by evil men causing an algo selling frenzy. :shuriken:

or

Fed audit

or

Threatening to break up the big bad banks



Could result in...........-1000



Personally i would go with the theory about the trader who hit the B key instead of the M key by accident due to being distracted by hardcore tranny porn that his uncle sent him from Greece.

Well - if you look at the possible combination of Index Arbitrage programs going short and then HFT programs stepping in front of those trades I guess the two could feed off each other.
 
I wrote this:

"Righto, blame culture at its finest, btw, anyone seen medbs today?"

"I don't trade the indices but have heard plenty of chatter re. the fib lines creaking suggesting a huge (overdue) imminent correction on the DOW/S&P...We are entering a possible contagious sovereign debt crisis and despite so much US govt assistance their economy is still dead, Fannie and Freddie have their hands out for another $14bl over the past few days, just a couple of other issues which would make folk v. nervous...Second/third stage of the meltdown unavoidable now..?"

"Given so many big players only watch certain indicators and would perhaps want the algo/s to position itself accordingly, does that not support the fib, S/R other TA theory?

LOL no offence. I'm just a lowly forex swinger. I've no idea why the market temporarily crashed by 1,000 points, that's why I posed the question...with question marks...It's obvious that elite traders dont use w@nky stuff such as stoch, macd, rsi, etc; however they surely do *use* (or the algos in their place) S/R, trend lines, channels etc... "

"This response is littered with contradictions, dissembling and attempts at petty point scoring, so I'll leave you to bask in your pre-conceptions. Me, I'm fairly nuetral on any info. that comes my way (from whatever source). Does T/A work...for me... trading oil and forex? Hell yeah...could I use my edge/skill set on indices and or equities? Havn't got the time to waste trying...good luck with that..."

"It is a very tired subject but comes up so often. It never fails to amaze me how easily threads become de-railed on this suite of forums and always deteriorate so quickly. The wild assumptions posters make re. others; beliefs, background, knowledge, qualifications, contacts etc.. is quite bizarre..."

"I can't see anyone or anywhere on this thread the belief being put forward that the DOW fell by 1,000 yesterday points based on technical issues alone, however, with equal conviction I'd suggest that price crossing a 200MA, support and resistance (arguably basic supply and demand), chaannels, trend lines and fibs influence enough decision making/makers, be it mechanical or programmed, to contribute towards market moves... "

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

You write this...


"On the face of it, it appears you are basing your assumptions based on what you read on forums and read in popular trading books."

"Just a few minutes ago I shorted AIG at 11:24:21 EST at 37.91 - I got out a few minutes later at 37.05. I did not use any MACD, Stochastics, S/R, trend lines, channels ete. etc. - this is all just wannabee trader website crap. I had an eye on what the market was doing, how this stock had acted in the past couple of days, the order book and the stock movement for today. It was not a particulary clever trade to be honest but the reasons for entering, although simple, are not in the places you look for trading info..."

"If you look on trading forums for information about the way things move and the relationships between various markets (e.g. stocks, and their 2 main derivatives) then you will keep coming up with the same old, tired, stale crap that makes nobody any money. "

"The problem is - if you limit your knowledge in the domain of trading to all this textbook TA crap, then you will never get a handle on what is actually going on. Which is not particularly complex, it is just not mechanical. Your presumptions that Algos must use channels or S/R are purely based on the limitations of your knowledge in this domain. Suffice to say that what is actually happening is not withing your domain of knowledge."

"So - I put it to you that they do not "surely use" any of the things you think they do. They do not have massive Cray computers predicting what happens next."

"Running in front of trades, taking advantage of price disparities, looking for the footprints of a large buyer is the meat of it. I am sure there are more exotic things out there - but with a few billion and co-location you don't need to predict the future - you just need to be able to tell what is happening now."

"You seem to be under the impression my post was in another thread. I did not make an anti-TA post."

"The issue at hand is program trading - your assertion that these systems 'must' be using S/R or other TA techniques are based (as I said) on your domain of knowledge, not on knowledge of what actually happens. It is misinformation."

"Of course you cannot argue against what I posted because you simply have no idea what these algos do and so you are left to do what a lot of people do on teh interweb and just make stuff up. This is fine - we all know different stuff. We should not be making things up though, as there are children around."

"A very small amount of research would show you what boring stuff these algos do. It is not what you think. Hence your inability to respond to the points in my post."

"Go read that book - you will find it an enlightening experience"

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

A bit over the top wouldn't you say...?
 
“While our policy is not to comment on individual participation in our markets, in light of volatile market conditions, CME Group confirmed that activity by Citigroup Global Markets Inc. in CME Group stock index futures markets does not appear to be irregular or unusual in light of market activity today.”

thread closed
 
A bit over the top wouldn't you say...?

How so ?

There are more things in heaven and earth, Black Swan, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

I have now laid out the basics of trading algorithms and what quants do. Would you like to debate the points made re: my knowledge of what algos do and your suppositions of what they do ?

Or shall we bring in a few strawmen ?

For heavens sake - this IS a trading forum. Is it too much to ask for people to check the facts before talking about what 'obviously' happens ?

The fact that you have the name "Black Swan" is quite ironic given the circumstances.
 
I have now laid out the basics of trading algorithms and what quants do. Would you like to debate the points made re: my knowledge of what algos do and your suppositions of what they do ?

That's pretty much bull****, what you've laid down basically only touches the top of the iceberg and completely ignores all the very basic trend following CTA's methods running Billions of OPM based on pure TA.

Go have a talk with Richard Olsen which I have done, founder of Oanda, about what drives his algos at olseninvest, pure TA, and nothing else.

What on earth else should drive it lol, moon cycles ?

It's really just childish this carping on of yours about TA and who does or does not use that in the face of all freely available evidence to the contrary.

If you can't get it to work fine, but trying to translate your failure into a verdict of TA not working for anyone else is just plain moronic.

Unbelievable how some insecure people just keep going on and on in circles, trying desperately to twist facts around their cherished beliefs that they feel compelled to uphold to bolster their fragile egos.

No self confident person would have a problem accepting that different people have different methods without getting their panties in a bunch.

Jim Rogers invests off of fundamentals ?

Hey, great for him.

:LOL:

I don't, great for me.

:LOL::LOL::LOL:
 
That's pretty much bull****, what you've laid down basically only touches the top of the iceberg and completely ignores all the very basic trend following CTA's methods running Billions of OPM based on pure TA.

Go have a talk with Richard Olsen which I have done, founder of Oanda, about what drives his algos at olseninvest, pure TA, and nothing else.

What on earth else should drive it lol, moon cycles ?

It's really just childish this carping on of yours about TA and who does or does not use that in the face of all freely available evidence to the contrary.

If you can't get it to work fine, but trying to translate your failure into a verdict of TA not working for anyone else is just plain moronic.

Unbelievable how some insecure people just keep going on and on in circles, trying desperately to twist facts around their cherished beliefs that they feel compelled to uphold to bolster their fragile egos.

No self confident person would have a problem accepting that different people have different methods without getting their panties in a bunch.

Jim Rogers invests off of fundamentals ?

Hey, great for him.

:LOL:

I don't, great for me.

:LOL::LOL::LOL:

Sorry that I didn't get to complete my rec. I could not, possibly, repeat what I wanted to say, here. :D

Glad to see you see you standing up for TA !
 
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Hi Split my friend hows life treating you ?

Hope everything is going great for you :)

You know what's best about this moronic broken record that those who can't trade off of TA keep going is that even proof positive from markets itself can't dispel their false beliefs, this denial of obvious facts really is cognitive dissonance at it's best.

What more proof does one need than what we saw last thursday when we had a 9% or whatever drop in the Dow driven by nothing much more complex than momentum - ie TA - driven algos jumping onboard a freight train leaving the station.

They sure didn't jump onboard because the fundamentals had suddenly changed, any more than the 70% of daily volume being traded on the NYSE is fundamentally driven, unless some really bright FA proponents straight outta comedy central wanna suggest that the funnymentals keep changing hundreds or thousands of times per day lol.

:LOL:
 
Well - it's good to see that the bandwagon of the ignorant joined the thread.

All that's missing is some pictures of fancy cars and boats posted from BSDs PC in the spare bedroom at his moms house where he 'trades for a living'.

I have not scratched the surface of algorithmic trading - I have just stated what the majority of it is.

Take it or leave it - you can continue believing that Quants are fortune tellers and that algorithmic trading is married to your beloved TA if you like.

If some of you care to read up on the subject, you will find out what quants do and what the algorithms do and how mostly they are about taking advantage of price discrepancies or putting through large orders with the smallest footprint. If your only arguments against this is "TA Works", then I am mystified because it's not even the point of discussion.
 
An algo just to clarify this is nothing else than a computer doing what humans programmed it to do.

That can be what a huge majority of CTA's are doing namely very simple TA based trend following, or it can be used for frontrunning orders, or to get better execution prices, but when I use the term algo I use it the same way that trend following CTA's use it, or the way James Simons of Renaissance Technologies uses it, or Richard Olsen of Olseninvest whose algos perfectly obviously trade off of tick data and TA, etc etc, ie where the buy side is concerned an algo is just plain a tool for mechanical, rule based directional trading.
 
Hi Split my friend hows life treating you ?

Hope everything is going great for you :)

You know what's best about this moronic broken record that those who can't trade off of TA keep going is that even proof positive from markets itself can't dispel their false beliefs, this denial of obvious facts really is cognitive dissonance at it's best.
:

Perhaps it's that English is your second language. Perhaps you are just slow on the uptake.

I use TA and make money from it.

I don't use indicators, I don't use TA in abscence of other factors and I don't use the overly simplistic 'one size fits all' TA that is espoused in thousands of trading books, web sites and forums.

I know it's hard for this to sink in BSD - I am saying that textook TA doesn't work - but only appear to be able to read the part "TA doesn't work" and not comprehend the rest.

If anyone in any thread wants to explain a bit of TA, how it has value and why it works in all markets without considering any other factor, I will gladly present you with scenarios in various markets where knowing how the markets work as well as fundamentals will make your trades better. I will present you with factors that will impact the trades positively and negatively.

This wont happen. What will more than likely happen is a bit of googling for another 'TA success story', a Ferrari or two and the epic groundbreaking argument that "it works for him, it must be great". The flaws in such argumentation are obviously not obvious to most and this is why most will end up handing money to people who understand.

I will not wait with baited breath.
 
You were stating that algo driven funds do not use TA and I am simply providing evidence that that is pure BS driven by nothing else than wishful thinking.

Take this guy who was one of Trader Dailies top earning traders several times, and a multi Billionaire to boot from trading, all he does like so many other CTA's is use a very simple, mechanical trend following approach:

Billionaire trader through 15 minutes work / day !
 
The reason why it has nothing to do with TA, is because these aren't directional. Big banks don't have any need to run a directional strategy when they are just making markets...

To reiterate:

An algo just to clarify this is nothing else than a computer doing what humans programmed it to do.

That can be what a huge majority of CTA's are doing namely very simple TA based trend following, or it can be used for frontrunning orders, or to get better execution prices, but when I use the term algo I use it the same way that trend following CTA's use it, or the way James Simons of Renaissance Technologies uses it, or Richard Olsen of Olseninvest whose algos perfectly obviously trade off of tick data and TA, etc etc, ie where the buy side is concerned an algo is just plain a tool for mechanical, rule based directional trading.


As I said, I'm not talking about the sell side, I'm talking about the buy side, and the fact that a lot of funds there use use algos for mechanical, directional trading.
 
LOL here's another guy who got very rich with a very simple trend following algo he and a buddy programmed, I've actually gotten drunk with this guy at some trading expo aftershow party in Stuttgart few weeks ago:

christian-baha-2.jpg



"Superfund's origin dates back to 1991, when Christian Halper and Christian Baha developed a software system for the technical analysis of financial data. Within two years, this program became the leading provider of market delivery software in Austria. This success led to the development of the Quadriga Investment Group, created by Christian Baha in 1995. Today, the group has more than 280 employees worldwide. The quadriga Group launched its first alternative investment product for private investors on March 8, 1996 called the Quadriga Beteiligungs - und Vermogens AG". In 2003 the Quadriga funds were globally unified under the umbrella brand name SUPERFUND. Today, the group has more than 1.5 billion dollars under management from more than 55,000 retail and institutional investors."
http://www.superfund.com/

Simple, TA based algos printing money like so many other trend following CTA's, or like T Booone Pickes is doing extremely successfuly today too and what made him a billionaire.

But then these guys don't waste their time spouting BS on message boards contrary to all available evidence, they just programme their algos and get on with making money with very simple methods.
 
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