Random trading systems - "monkey with a pin"

At least randomness can prevent large losses.

It is a "known fact" that 95% of all traders lose their money within the first year. This would be very difficult to achieve with random trading. Here's the profit distribution of 3000 traders that trade completely random for one year, one trade per day:

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You can see that randomness very effectively saves the 95% from losing their money. Almost 50% are even making a profit in their first trading year with random trading, some even earn more than 7000 pips.

This is really good stuff.

I assume these traders used some risk management as well?
 
I'd doubt very much to become a billionaire, or even a millionaire, by next year. I think the appeal to me is the laziness approach. If I could make more or less the same as I do now (which is around 10-20% a year for a couple of years medium term trading) without really spending any time on it, it might be nice.

Something to think about anyway. Yes too many duff entries and it would blow the account, but that's the same for "planned" entries too... each one we never know if it will go the right way, so it's the same for a randomly planned entry.

Which means-- a definite rule on stop location and risk per trade, otherwise the losses will make the system bankrupt sooner or later.

Human nature concerning giving the trade a few more points, etc, simply will not do the job.

I got steamrollered, this morning, too. ie. I went into profit for +9 points, only to lose it shortly afterwards.

So that is my tuppence worth on this thread. If the system is to work, stops have to be strictly observed. Targets? I am not out of the woods on that one. I can't resist the possibility of a runner. That one, this morning, at +9, maybe I should have moved the stop to BE, but I have found that that gets stopped more times than it is worth.
 
No, the distribution is from trading without any stop or profit target.

Risk management has the effect to narrow the bell curve. A stop loss would narrow it from the left, a profit target from the right.

It becomes really interesting when you do the opposite: not narrow but widen the profit distribution, using money management. You can then get straight rising equity curves just with random trading.

Damn! I'm going to have to look at some of the links, otherwise I'll have no idea what you are all talking about!

At my age, I have engrained into my trading style, that I must use a stop, for peace of mind. I don't know how would be able to cope, otherwise.
 
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Would anyone, please, give me an example of what they would consider a random trade?

At present, with Footsie, I am biassed into making long trades, so I have a problem, for a start. I may get in at any time but it would be a long trade. Would anyone, randomly, make a short trade, during this bull run?
 
I see it as randomly picking something to trade, say from the FTSE all share list, list of ETFs,, etc but I think the same could be applied to randomly choosing a direction to trade in as well.
 
So you are assuming that, randomness, will give you the opportunity to manage your trades and make a profit??

No, randomness gives you absolutely nothing other than consistency.
That's the whole point, randomness assumes nothing.
Randomness does not assume to know direction.
It does not chase price, lead by lagging signals.
That is not to say that direction cannot be known in advance,
At certain times, direction will be blindingly obvious.
In those instances though, volatility can still take you out.

Think of it this way, static entry time around session start.
Price will move up or down net, with any manner of pullbacks, ranging along the way.
Plenty will disagree and say you can get a more accurate view of the future.
That is not an unfair point if you target specific types of action.
Targeting that specific action is much harder with automation as its dumb for starters.
Automation, at least at the lower retail end cannot read price action, the tape,
or current events.
If you get into the high end stat arb fund stuff things change due to resourcing,
and several PhD quants.
At the end of the scale being discussed here, randomness, as the hare has
alluded to, is one of the best foundations for automation or learning.

If you don't or can't automate, randomness is of little value if you have
experience of anticipating the prime type of action that suits your style,
whether that is tape reading, sitting on you hands waiting for no brainers etc.

So to answer the original question, price alone decides if you make a profit,
largely due to that worn out, but extremely valid truism - cut you losses, run your winners.
Obviously there is more to it than that, volatility and trend behaviour at time
of entry are good filters to cut down on dumb trades.
The point with a static entry around session start is to identify the
common time that action is present, look for an entry if price action is favourable.
By that I largely mean not flatlining.
 
Would anyone, please, give me an example of what they would consider a random trade?

At present, with Footsie, I am biassed into making long trades, so I have a problem, for a start. I may get in at any time but it would be a long trade. Would anyone, randomly, make a short trade, during this bull run?

That's a good question, and probably dependent on how reliable your directional bias actually is (most methods are not really that great over a large enough sample size)

If you can predict direction better than random, then a random entry system is more than good enough. It's an easy enough thing to test, take 100 trades at random over the next month, and if the markets going up over that period, you'll probably find that roughly 65% of your long trades turn out profitable, and 65% of your shorts lost. If it was that easy, we'd all be on the Forbes rich list. The more strongly the markets trending, the more pronounced this effect becomes.

If you want to add a directional bias, It's a case of determining WHAT trend your random system is trying to exploit.
 
Would anyone, please, give me an example of what they would consider a random trade?

At present, with Footsie, I am biassed into making long trades, so I have a problem, for a start. I may get in at any time but it would be a long trade. Would anyone, randomly, make a short trade, during this bull run?

If conditions warrant a directional bias, there is absolutely nothing wrong with that whatsoever.
 
That's a good question, and probably dependent on how reliable your directional bias actually is (most methods are not really that great over a large enough sample size)

If you can predict direction better than random, then a random entry system is more than good enough. It's an easy enough thing to test, take 100 trades at random over the next month, and if the markets going up over that period, you'll probably find that roughly 65% of your long trades turn out profitable, and 65% of your shorts lost. If it was that easy, we'd all be on the Forbes rich list. The more strongly the markets trending, the more pronounced this effect becomes.

If you want to add a directional bias, It's a case of determining WHAT trend your random system is trying to exploit.

Agree, in essence, strong directional predictability is pretty rare,
quite often. a market that should be tanking, might range or even go up
due to large player anticipation of a future event (Draghi brain fart...) which
then turns out to be not so bad.

I have, and I'm sure you have noticed periods where there is a significant
profitability bias to the long / short side (assuming directional approach).
Programming recognition of that fact, or successful manual intervention
is something else entirely...
 
This is really good stuff.

I assume these traders used some risk management as well?

Really?

I assume these traders didn't actually exist.

It's a simulation - don't read too much into it. How can I tell it's a simulation? Well - that's another topic entirely... :whistling
 
Really?

I assume these traders didn't actually exist.

It's a simulation - don't read too much into it. How can I tell it's a simulation? Well - that's another topic entirely... :whistling

Well I assumed wrong anyway as the simulated traders didn't use any risk management!
 
You choose trades randomly but use risk management non-randomly to make a profit.

That's like driving on one side of the road randomly but using the brakes to stop having an accident.

Seems a pretty dumb way to avoid making a decision to me.
 
That's like driving on one side of the road randomly but using the brakes to stop having an accident.

Seems a pretty dumb way to avoid making a decision to me.

Not really as roads always travel in the same way, whereas stocks don't and the movements are largely random.

The point is shown in some of the links that although traders tend to think that their system works, it is no better than randomly trading over time.
 
That's like driving on one side of the road randomly but using the brakes to stop having an accident.

Seems a pretty dumb way to avoid making a decision to me.

Completely agree, but as computers are dumb as well, its a good blend
for automation.
 
Once direction has been decided, then, perhaps it is better not to have a chart, at all. A chart becomes a distraction to the trader.
 
That's like driving on one side of the road randomly but using the brakes to stop having an accident.

Seems a pretty dumb way to avoid making a decision to me.

Your driving analogy doesn't really work too well.

In most countries there is legislation that stipulates which side of the road people should be driving on. If you know the way everyone's traveling, the sensible option would be to join them, not drive on the wrong side of the road.

If anything, a random entry forces you to take decisions about things that actually matter
 
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