Pure Technical Analysis on the Eur Usd for 2014

Forexmospherian

Legendary member
39,928 3,301
I will start this thread with a EU monthly chart going back over 20 yrs




I then plan to go into detail why based on a 12 -14 year view the EU is still in an Uptrend

Most members on the forum know me as a FX intraday trader and approximately 70% + of my income comes from scalping moves of between say 5 and 30 pips.

However I do leave certain scalps on - normally with part stakes ( 30%) and now and again I do profit with the 300 and 500 and even 1000 pip moves. For me to improve in this area I need to take my trading skills away from the ordnance survey map ( ie tick and one minute) to the big world map - ie weekly and monthly charts

All I have heard during the last 2 years is the EU is in a big down trade - its way way OB and price should be down under 1 2000 etc etc.

Well from my view - and remember I am not really bothered about any long term bias - as I am predominately a scalper - the EU is still in an up trend - - and even down to 1 2000 - yes still an up trend.

I welcome all other views on why I am wrong and then maybe every 3 - 6 months we can update this thread and see how we are progressing

For a start i will back up my claim with the main reason why i still say this pair is still in a LT up trend

Please nothing but TA on the EU - other pairs can be in other threads - and also no intraday stuff - this thread is just to make a case why 70% of all analysts who say the EU is in a strong down trend are wrong and really just part of the "sheeple" who along with the Banks create so much false sentiment in this FX game

OK - my reasons to follow in next comment

Regards


F
 

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Forexmospherian

Legendary member
39,928 3,301


EU low - 0 8187 in September 2000

EU high - 1 6044 ( approx ) June 2009

EU - June 2014 - 1 3650 area

Number of years price above low - 14 years

Number of years price below high - 6 years

Last proper yearly low - June 2012 - at approx 1.2020/30 area

Number of years above last proper yearly low - 2 years

Number of years below last yearly high - less than 2 months

Have we retraced over 50% of rise - no not properly

Is the ray line angle from low still in an up trend - YES

Have we done a HH and HL on the monthly - YES - but not a HH on 2011 - but neither a LL on 2010

How many months as price been rising - 22 months

How many months as price been falling - 2 months

Will we go above 1 5250 in next 2 years - I dont know

Will we go under 1 2000 in next 2 years - I dont know

What do i know ? - Even if we drop 1000 + pips on EU next 3- 6 months - we are still in an uptrend

When do we fall out of the up trend - when price is under 1 1600

When was the last time that happened - over 11 years ago

Is there anything to support a down trend - only if price breaches under 1 1600

I rest my main case


Regards


F
 

WklyOptions

Well-known member
269 24


.....

What do i know ? - Even if we drop 1000 + pips on EU next 3- 6 months - we are still in an uptrend

When do we fall out of the up trend - when price is under 1 1600

When was the last time that happened - over 11 years ago

Is there anything to support a down trend - only if price breaches under 1 1600

I rest my main case


Regards


F

Hi, F,

Yes - in agreement with your conclusion of the Monthly EURUSD being in a prolonged uptrend.

Within the "short term" of the current momentum - there is a bearish bias on the lower time frames. However, any bearish trade must be done with good risk management and awareness that the downside Target will be the Monthly uptrend line. Any bearish trades should be exited relatively quickly once downside momentum has stopped. Upside reversals against bearish positions may be quick and violent (and painful to the profits).

Unless there is some extreme multi-government and/or banking firms in "need" to exert its immense deep pockets and influence, the uptrend should continue.

However, to be honest, I don't really trade into this "super-slow-mo" time frame.

I trade mostly off the M15, H1, and H4 time frames.

Thanks for your detailed T/A pointers!

WklyOptions
 

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Forexmospherian

Legendary member
39,928 3,301
Hi Wkly Options and MM

Thank you for your charts

I was hoping I would get lots of members with charts showing why technically the EU is ready to drop like a stone

I appreciate It could easily drop another 500 or even 1000 pips - but even then for me I still see an up channel - so bears would be correct in saying - yes we will get further falls - and i am sure all of us will have no problem in selling intraday as that happens.

But - and this is the major but - i will also have no problem in buying the EU when it rises - whether that is just for a 10 -50 pip scalp or even a 150 - 250 pip swing rise.

For my Intraday trading I try and dismiss the weekly or monthly - or even yearly trend - as for me as a scalper - a trend is any move carrying on for more than 3 pips - and when you break moves down to daily sessions - intraday traders should not be put off buying by purely thinking the EU is in a massive down trend - and therefore i should not take any buys

Look forward to some good Bear technical arguments - not though for intraday - but really for this year

Regards


F



 

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MajorMagnuM

Legendary member
9,284 888
hi wkly options and mm

thank you for your charts

i was hoping i would get lots of members with charts showing why technically the eu is ready to drop like a stone

i appreciate it could easily drop another 500 or even 1000 pips - but even then for me i still see an up channel - so bears would be correct in saying - yes we will get further falls - and i am sure all of us will have no problem in selling intraday as that happens.

But - and this is the major but - i will also have no problem in buying the eu when it rises - whether that is just for a 10 -50 pip scalp or even a 150 - 250 pip swing rise.

For my intraday trading i try and dismiss the weekly or monthly - or even yearly trend - as for me as a scalper - a trend is any move carrying on for more than 3 pips - and when you break moves down to daily sessions - intraday traders should not be put off buying by purely thinking the eu is in a massive down trend - and therefore i should not take any buys

look forward to some good bear technical arguments - not though for intraday - but really for this year

regards


f




here is a view
 

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Forexmospherian

Legendary member
39,928 3,301
EU - 12hr LR Chart over 2 years

From 2012 to today with LR bias

 

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  • EU - JUNE 2014 - 12 HR CHART.JPG
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