Public sector net debt is 62% of gdp £820bl...OUCH

Chill out.

We can always go the IMF. Or the Russians.

Better get our deaults in early though, there could be quite a queue if we leave it much longer.

Anyone remember a drama series about a real socialist government that got into power? The Prime Minister was played by Ray McAnally (a great actor, and a great loss). He didn't live in Downing Street, but in a tower block. (Imagine Blair doing that).

Anyway, of course the markets panicked and everyone expected the IMF to have to step in.
Instead, they got a loan from the USSR (this was still in cold war days).

It all ended badly as the Prime Minister got assassinated, as of course any truly socialist leader probably would do in reality, or nobbled in some way or other by MI-Fools.


(A bit of searching reveals it as "A Very British Coup" - http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0094576/ )
 
"The vast majority of public sector employees will retire at 60 on their final salary pensions"

not sure this is true, my father has just retired after working quite high up in the civil service, he certainly isn't on final salary pension..far from it.

He should be, if he was a civil servant. Do you mean that his pension is nowhere near the level of his final salary? The usual model is that if you work for the requisite number of years, then you get a pension equivalent to half of your final salary.

Originally I think the scheme was based on a 40 year career ending at 65, and you needed to work the full 40 years to get a full pension (40 / 80ths = half of your final salary). I was in a scheme similar to this.

However, the main civil service scheme has been altered a few times over the years, with a 60 retirement age, and fewer years needed (perhaps as few as 30 in some cases, but I don't think that was normal). You can criticise this, but don't forget that for many years there was a general movement towards earlier retirement - partly to get rid of dead wood, and partly that was just the way society was going....working to live, rather than living to work, sort of thing.

It has changed again now, and newer entrants can no longer retire at 60, and have to work longer to get a full pension. Plus ca change.

There is nothing wrong with final salary pension schemes, but the vast majority of civil service and related pensioners are actually on pretty modest pensions - the high fliers with telephone number pensions are few and far between. There was always a trade off to be made between working in the public sector - moderate pay, but at least a reliable pension and reasonably secure employment - versus working in the private sector - in boom times, high salaries and bonuses, but much less job and pension security.

Many decent private firms also had final salary schemes and they should have worked a bit harder to keep them.

How does it go - you don't make the poor richer by making the rich poorer. Well, it's similar with public versus private sector pensions: you don't make private sector pensions better by making public sector pensions worse.

Admittedly, Gordon Brown wants shooting for his "pensions raid", but that's not the whole story. Private pensions have always been a bit of a rip-off, and mostly still are, sadly.
 
I'm numb to all this now. We're on a leaking raft about to enter the rapids, and we lost the oar a mile back. What's the name of this creek? I forget, think it rhymes with 'hit' .

Have no fear my friend, figures out at 9:30 will no doubt show the economy racing towards a recovery...If anyone can call it a recovery when you've spent; £1trl propping up the banking system, £200bl on Q.E. and the result is a meaningless statistical blip growth figure of 0.3%ish then they must be as clinically insane as Gordon Brown who thinks the deficit is more important than the massive overall debt the UK is in...
Be weird (and very timely) if growth comes in at 1%...
 
Britain's occupations: the winners and losers over the past decade

the state grows


The winners


Conservation and environmental protection officers
11,797
26,470
up 124%

Paramedics
11,101
23,798
up 114%

Legal associate professionals
24,509
51,250
109

Refuse and salvage occupations
21,750
44,393
up 104%

Leisure and theme park attendants
11,101
22,471
102

Town planners
13,886
26,931
up 94%

Educational assistants
252,358
482,979
up 91%

Driving instructors
23,265
44,494
91

Registrars and senior educational administrators
25,195
44,210
up 75%

Purchasing managers
24,415
41,457
70

Psychologists
20,947
35,080
67

Undertakers and mortuary assistants
11,157
18,379
65

Beauticians and related occupations
32,476
53,055
63

Youth and community workers
70,868
114,992
up 62%

Senior officials in special interest organisations :LOL:
17,767
28,385
UP 60%

Housing and welfare officers
110,357
176,173
up 60%

Aircraft pilots and flight engineers
15,129
24,079
59

Pharmaceutical dispensers
25,505
40,052
57

Social service managers
32,201
50,463
up 57%

Statutory examiners
11,067
17,275
up 56%

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...-winners-and-losers-over-the-past-decade.html
 
Tories are heading for a majority of 30 on May 6th ... then we'll see how nasty George "we're in it together" Osborne can really be.

Actually I don't know why they don't tin him as he's useless, and re-install Ken Clarke. As I recall, he was quite a good chancellor.
 
I saw a reference somewhere (Guardian I think )that the UK is deeper in debt than Italy !! Not true surely?

Lets go to Italy -at least the sun shines for longer:clap:
 
Hi MM, I thought you raised some interesting points there - a few thoughts:

He should be, if he was a civil servant. Do you mean that his pension is nowhere near the level of his final salary? The usual model is that if you work for the requisite number of years, then you get a pension equivalent to half of your final salary.

Originally I think the scheme was based on a 40 year career ending at 65, and you needed to work the full 40 years to get a full pension (40 / 80ths = half of your final salary). I was in a scheme similar to this.

However, the main civil service scheme has been altered a few times over the years, with a 60 retirement age, and fewer years needed (perhaps as few as 30 in some cases, but I don't think that was normal). You can criticise this, but don't forget that for many years there was a general movement towards earlier retirement - partly to get rid of dead wood, and partly that was just the way society was going....working to live, rather than living to work, sort of thing.

It has changed again now, and newer entrants can no longer retire at 60, and have to work longer to get a full pension. Plus ca change.

The old model of retirement is so far out of date it's crazy. Retiring at 60 or even 65 is simply not feasible without radical change in either how pensions are funded or what people receive in retirement. People are simply living much longer and our current model is unaffordable.

Greece is all over the place at the moment, but the true state of the country is much scarier. A few years ago there was a completely ignored report (I think from the OECD) that estimated Greece's public pension costs at 25% of GDP by 2050. Ageing societies are in for a very rude wake up call - the current riots in Greec are nothing compared to what's coming.


There is nothing wrong with final salary pension schemes, but the vast majority of civil service and related pensioners are actually on pretty modest pensions - the high fliers with telephone number pensions are few and far between. There was always a trade off to be made between working in the public sector - moderate pay, but at least a reliable pension and reasonably secure employment - versus working in the private sector - in boom times, high salaries and bonuses, but much less job and pension security.

Many decent private firms also had final salary schemes and they should have worked a bit harder to keep them.

The only thing wrong with final salary schemes is that they are horrendously expensive. Most public sector pension provision will have to be paid for out of taxation - there is no fund, and this is madness.

You are correct that most public sector pensions are quite modest. I don't know if you saw QT a few weeks ago - a woman in the audience made the point that the average public sector pension was around £4,000. Leaving aside why anyone would consider the average to be of any significance, the woman was outraged by this. However, I would be surprised if she fully appreciated the cost. Roughly speaking, a person retiring at 60 would have an annuity rate of around 4%, assuming (as most public sector pensions are I believe) the annuity was indexed and provided for a 50% spouse's pension. Thus a person would need to build up a fund of £100,000 to provide this pension on their own - this is after tax free cash (now PCLS). Is it likely that they would have accumulated such a sum in private employment?

I have a friend who is an actuary, and he calculated the contribution that would be needed to fund his sister's NHS pension - 18%. Het actual contribution was 6%.


How does it go - you don't make the poor richer by making the rich poorer. Well, it's similar with public versus private sector pensions: you don't make private sector pensions better by making public sector pensions worse.

You certainly don't help the poor by walloping the rich. However, the tax burden needed to support public sector pensions is becoming crippling, and will become completely unsustainable before long. There is no fund - it all depends on future taxation.


Admittedly, Gordon Brown wants shooting for his "pensions raid", but that's not the whole story. Private pensions have always been a bit of a rip-off, and mostly still are, sadly.

For that and quite a few other things.

Some pensions have had ludicrous costs, although this has certainly changed. The Government has been rightly lambasted over the Stakeholder nonsense, but one effect that it did have was to accelerate the process of bringing charges down.

Scottish Life has a contract that can have a 1% annual charge. This includes drawdown (or USP if you prefer), bits and bobs such as lifestyling, and 0.5% to pay for ongoing advice.

For those that want something a bit more interesting, SIS has a pension whose charges are simply the TER of the underlying fund (so exactly as they would be direct, in an ISA etc), plus a £50 account charge and an extra £50 once you start drawdown (or phased drawdown if you want). This too would include 0.5% for ongoing advice.

£100 a year for a phased drawdon contract is dirt cheap (obviously you would need to have a resaonably large fund, although if you were considering dd that would ususally be the case anyway).

In addition, the account charge covers all your holdings - one charge would pay for your pension, ISA, bonds and unwrapped collectives. The platform has no initial charges and no switching charges.

So the pension rip-off thing is very outdated (unless you go to some rip-off merchant, and sadly there are still plenty of those about).
 
Lets go to Italy -at least the sun shines for longer:clap:

Yep and If you're a young single bloke the women are to die for (apologies in advance to our lady members for such a basic one dimensional reference aimed at the fairer sex..;))

Also check out the price of 2 bed new build flats in Sardinia, admitedly not in the most up market regions of the island but still, for 70K EU you can't go wrong IMO...:)

I actually quite like the open thugery and unmasked opportunism of Italian politics, none of this nonsense like Blair; lining himself up for a billion dollar fortune after being in power, at least Silvio pi55es in his electorates' face whilst his busy at it...
 
Yep and If you're a young single bloke the women are to die for (apologies in advance to our lady members for such a basic one dimensional reference aimed at the fairer sex..;))
.

I'd be very surprised if there are any lady members on this site.
 
Ambrose Evans Pritchard writes some good stuff in the Torygraph

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...use-fuels-EMU-wide-contagion-from-Greece.html

When I first started reading his pieces, I was taken aback by his extreme views, but several of them have come to pass.

Greece is so screwed - one wonders where this all ends.

It ends where it always ends - in the gutter. The West needs a serious wake up call.

Unfortunately, it will take a damn sight more than this to bring us to our senses. Look at how a bankrupt nation that has been living way beyond its means responds to a pay freeze - with riots and strikes.
 
Yup, we're toast. We've spent the last 20 years churning out illiterate kids with no respect for authority nor the willingness to work. To use trader parlance, we have no "edge" any more. Having said that, when the sh-t hits the fan, you're best off being in your home country, especially if it has nuclear capability.
 
A good comment in the Telegraph, under one of AEP's articles:

"While it is most likely you are correct in predicting another UK Sterling crisis, if not disaster, your personification of the market as something that is “about to pounce” does a disservice in that it implies that “the market” is somehow to blame for the situation.

Consider another metaphor. An omnibus full of increasingly unwilling and apprehensive passengers being operated at grossly excessive speeds by a drunken and incompetent driver, with bad eyesight and no knowledge of the route, while the omnibus is equipped with worn tires, bad steering, and has had the safety systems such as the antilock brakes and warning flashers disconnected. This is bad enough, but then night falls, snow starts falling, fog appears, and the driver speeds up. The driver’s rationale for this is “but we are making such good time.” The resulting horrific accident is not the result of malevolent nature, a vengeful deity, or any outside forces, but the totally predictable and expected outcome, given the conditions and circumstances created and maintained."


http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100003763/britain-and-the-pigs/
 
The market seems very sanguine about the prospects for gilts and the pound, it's slightly odd. Maybe it's a case that we've already had our devaluation and now the focus is elsewhere. I'm still short GBP/USD but with a fairly tight stop just above 1.55. My system will get me short again at some point as we're still in an overall downtrend, but the price action doesn't look that promising.
 
The market seems very sanguine about the prospects for gilts and the pound, it's slightly odd. Maybe it's a case that we've already had our devaluation and now the focus is elsewhere. I'm still short GBP/USD but with a fairly tight stop just above 1.55. My system will get me short again at some point as we're still in an overall downtrend, but the price action doesn't look that promising.

Probably because the US/USD looks equally dodgy :)
(FWIW, I'm shorting any rallies in GBP/USD; flat as we speak).
 
Public Sector Pensions, was: Re: Public sector net debt is 62% of gdp £820bl...OUCH

People go on about the cost of public sector pensions, so I thought I would try to find out what proportion of the budget/budget defict they are.

Well, they certainly don't come cheap, but as a proportion, perhaps not as much as the critics might have us believe.

http://www.nao.org.uk/publications/0910/public_service_pensions.aspx

* Total payments to more than 2 million pensioners in the UK’s four largest pay-as-you-go pension schemes (also known as unfunded schemes – where current employee and employer contributions are used to pay current pensions) were £19.3 billion in 2008-09, a real terms increase of 38 per cent since 1999-2000. This is driven by more employees retiring each year, which is a substantially more significant factor than longer lifespans.
* Employee contributions of £4.4 billion reduced the taxpayer’s share of costs to £14.9 billion in 2008-09. The employee element grew by 56 per cent in real terms since 1999-2000 because staff numbers and contribution rates have increased.


However, expressed as a proportion of GDP, the projected increase is less stark, as GDP is also assumed to rise. Projected payments are estimated to reach a peak of 1.9 per cent of GDP between 2018-19 and 2033-34 then fall to 1.7 per cent by 2059-60. This compares with a rise from around 1.5 per cent to 1.7 per cent over the last decade.



More generally:

public service pensioners will have paid contributions to their pension scheme all their working life

They will also have paid income tax and NIC throughout their working life.

They will have paid any indirect taxes such as VAT, and also Council Tax.

While drawing their pension, they will continue to pay income tax (if their pension is high enough), although not necessarily NIC (unless they have taken another job) and any indirect taxes.

So while it is popular to cast public service pensioners as "a burden on the taxpayer", they too were and are taxpayers and have paid their share of the burden.

Who I wonder have contributed most to Britain's massive budget deficit?

Relatively modestly-paid public servants on relatively modest pensions?

Or overpaid bankers who caused a crisis and needed massive bailouts?
(and who have very nice pensions thank you very kindly oh don't mention it).
 
It ends where it always ends - in the gutter. The West needs a serious wake up call.

Unfortunately, it will take a damn sight more than this to bring us to our senses. Look at how a bankrupt nation that has been living way beyond its means responds to a pay freeze - with riots and strikes.

The United States should be included in this view of the west. The only reason employment held up under Bush was that he doubled the size of our federal government. If you take those jobs out of the figures, then unemployment here was really bad before Obummer took office, and he definitely is making things here worse with his schemes. IMO, these guys are pushing a huge snowball up a hill with all of their bailout schemes and rescue measures. The further they push it, the bigger it gets, and the harder it will come down.
 
The post about pensions is illuminating, certainly it doesn't help to argue a point without the facts. However, another way of looking at it is that the total unfunded liability is GBP 1trio, or 70 pct of GDP. This is the equivalent "pot" that would be required to make good all the pension promises.

Public sector pensions are but one element of the deficit. The unions have wind that these promises could be altered and are promising action, as well they might. If I worked in the public sector I would be willing to strike for my pension, as it was something I signed on for when I took the job.

None the less, it's all a bit academic as the house of cards will collapse at some point any way. It doesn't really matter what you believe, the facts are we can't sustain this level of spending and growth of 0.2 or 0.3 pct won't make up the shortfall.

This is what will be cut -

1. Welfare benefit
2. Disability benefit
3. 10% pay cut for senior civil servants/doctors/teachers etc
4. MPs pay (which is a mistake)
5. Child benefit will become means tested
6. Complete freeze on recruitment
7. Several quangos will be culled

Eventually the big elephant in the room, the NHS, will have to be reduced in size as well. The whole process will be painful and take a decade, but there is no other option.
 
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