% profit expectations?

[RMB299]

O.K. so for a relative newbie with (let us assume) good money management, r/r, good discipline and mindset as well as an edge, is it realistic to expect to make say 1% per week or 4% per month on your account if day/swing trading?

Thanks

 

[barjon]

well, if you reckon you can better the best hedge funds and their professional traders it might be possible - 'course their average through all the funds is less than 10% for the year so I shouldn't bank on it.

 

[Shakone]

O.K. so for a relative newbie with (let us assume) good money management, r/r, good discipline and mindset as well as an edge, is it realistic to expect to make say 1% per week or 4% per month on your account if day/swing trading?

Thanks

No, it is not realistic. In fact there is more chance of you losing 50-80% of your account than achieving 4% per month on average for your first year.

 

[Jason Rogers]

O.K. so for a relative newbie with (let us assume) good money management, r/r, good discipline and mindset as well as an edge, is it realistic to expect to make say 1% per week or 4% per month on your account if day/swing trading?

Thanks

Hi Rmb,

While harsh, what the others have said here is right. If you are newbie, then setting a profit expectation per month especially on the level you describe is not realistic.

You mentioned "good money management, r/r, good discipline and mindset as well as an edge", but I would say that if you truly had all of these qualities you would no longer be a newbie trader, because these qualities take time to develop. Therefore, the goal should be to develop these skills.

This can be done by first starting with a demo account, then graduating to a small live account. As you truly develop a mastery of the qualities you highlighted, you get a good idea of what expectations are realistic for you. To that end, here are some tips from DailyFX Research based on their studies on trader profitability.

 

[neil]

Wise words

Hi Rmb,

While harsh, what the others have said here is right. If you are newbie, then setting a profit expectation per month especially on the level you describe is not realistic.

You mentioned "good money management, r/r, good discipline and mindset as well as an edge", but I would say that if you truly had all of these qualities you would no longer be a newbie trader, because these qualities take time to develop. Therefore, the goal should be to develop these skills.

This can be done by first starting with a demo account, then graduating to a small live account. As you truly develop a mastery of the qualities you highlighted, you get a good idea of what expectations are realistic for you. To that end, here are some tips from DailyFX Research based on their studies on trader profitability.

I wish all new traders would read the above posts.
( "I wish I'd said that." - Oscar Wild)

Bother - I'd said I was going to quit T2w, yet, here I am again

 

[timsk]

Bother - I'd said I was going to quit T2w, . . .

Ridiculous idea Neil - best that you forget about such silly things. You're a lifer, like me and barjon!


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Hi RMB299,
In addition to the replies you've received, if you've not seen it already, you might like to take a look at this FAQ: Realistically, How much Money can I Expect to Make? It paints a slightly more optimistic picture but, as a rule of thumb, it's better to start trading with very low expectations and achieve them, than it is to have unrealistically high ones that you've a snow ball's chance in hell of hitting.
Tim.

 

[Triggerfish]

To that end, here are some tips from DailyFX Research based on their studies on trader profitability.

Interesting article.....under the second paragraph:

Most will come to find that such holy grails don’t exist. The future is unpredictable, and price is the same – unpredictable; there is no such thing as a crystal ball or a strategy that will always win. Most professional traders embrace this. Most new traders continue to look.

So are we correct to say that the so called professional traders are winning by LUCK? or even CHANCE?.....so what is it that they actually do?
Furthermore, interesting why the article uses the word "most".......?
So what about those who are outside "most"?

 

[Pondlifedregsbutler]

-100%+ <6 weeks.

 

[Forexmospherian]

Interesting article.....under the second paragraph:
So are we correct to say that the so called professional traders are winning by LUCK? or even CHANCE?.....so what is it that they actually do?
Furthermore, interesting why the article uses the word "most".......?
So what about those who are outside "most"?

Hi Triggerfish

As far as I am concerned - retail forex trading is totally different to the commercial forex trading world.

If you were trading for a Bank and had say $50 million plus - you would have to play safe and therefore if you put that account up 40% in a year - ie $20 million - you would have done exceptionally well - in fact excellent.

So therefore even if your win ratio is under 50% ( you could say then guessing ;-) ) as long as you use advanced money management with low stakes etc - you will win more than you lose - simply because you would stay and ride your winners and cut the losses as close as possible to break even or a small loss.

Now - in the retail world - its a totally different ball game - chalk and cheese as far as I am concerned.

We have leverage and our own rules and although most accounts will be well under $10k - even with less than 2% stakes - you can still make 20 -50% per month quite easily - as long as you are experienced.

The trouble is - you would not do this on a 100k or half a mill etc - unless you are already worth several million and $10k losses you can handle - both in your head and in your bank account.

I personally have put a $100 account up over 5000% in under a month - live account - but so what is hardly going to ruin me if I lose the lot in 4 bad trades - as its small fry - saying that once you are up over $2k then you try and at least keep half of it in the kitty ;-)

On a $50k + account - I dont use over 1% stakes on scalps - but with small stops this can still be easy up to $100 a pip - and then on good days - you can make your 5 -15% increase - unheard of in the big bad commercial world

Even at 1% stakes and just £3% a day with say 13 winning days and 7 bad losing days - were you lose 3% then in a month you have made 18% - but personally if you had 7 bad days in a month losing money - get back to the demo and start studying and learning new methods - as you are just not experienced enough.

i think that is really the problem - retail traders need ideally over 5 yrs under their belts to be at a good level - especially if only part time - but full time - and with the study - the hours and 1000's of live trades behind you - you should be doubling and trebling all those commercial results you hear about.

Regards

F

 

[Blaiserboy]

Each trader would have to assess his potential after a long period of experience, not all can make the big numbers, and not all want the big numbers.

 

[NVP]

Hi Triggerfish

As far as I am concerned - retail forex trading is totally different to the commercial forex trading world.

If you were trading for a Bank and had say $50 million plus - you would have to play safe and therefore if you put that account up 40% in a year - ie $20 million - you would have done exceptionally well - in fact excellent.

So therefore even if your win ratio is under 50% ( you could say then guessing ;-) ) as long as you use advanced money management with low stakes etc - you will win more than you lose - simply because you would stay and ride your winners and cut the losses as close as possible to break even or a small loss.

Now - in the retail world - its a totally different ball game - chalk and cheese as far as I am concerned.

We have leverage and our own rules and although most accounts will be well under $10k - even with less than 2% stakes - you can still make 20 -50% per month quite easily - as long as you are experienced.

The trouble is - you would not do this on a 100k or half a mill etc - unless you are already worth several million and $10k losses you can handle - both in your head and in your bank account.

I personally have put a $100 account up over 5000% in under a month - live account - but so what is hardly going to ruin me if I lose the lot in 4 bad trades - as its small fry - saying that once you are up over $2k then you try and at least keep half of it in the kitty ;-)

On a $50k + account - I dont use over 1% stakes on scalps - but with small stops this can still be easy up to $100 a pip - and then on good days - you can make your 5 -15% increase - unheard of in the big bad commercial world

Even at 1% stakes and just £3% a day with say 13 winning days and 7 bad losing days - were you lose 3% then in a month you have made 18% - but personally if you had 7 bad days in a month losing money - get back to the demo and start studying and learning new methods - as you are just not experienced enough.

i think that is really the problem - retail traders need ideally over 5 yrs under their belts to be at a good level - especially if only part time - but full time - and with the study - the hours and 1000's of live trades behind you - you should be doubling and trebling all those commercial results you hear about.

Regards

F

yep - good points .............over the last few years I have realised that the standard MM/RR/% stake rules everyone quote sometimes dont cut it .......

N

 

[Forexmospherian]

yep - good points .............over the last few years I have realised that the standard MM/RR/% stake rules everyone quote sometimes dont cut it .......

N

Thanks N

I can see you have done the time and understand all the highs and lows of trading. So much of it is all in the mind - and really I suppose a lot of results can be dictated to how you judge the value of money.

For example I know i will have loses - some days only 1 other days 3+. I can handle $300 or $500 losses - but over $1000 losses and my mindset is saying - steady on - risky etc etc.

So my average wins are never going to be $2 or 3K+ plus - because I am not comfortable with the risk for the outlay - so I am restricted in a sense.

Probably if I broke my "mind mode" and allowed up to a $1Ok loss for say a week - I might end up with the $15 -30k wins and I am then in a different ballpark again

Still just trying to make $1 or $2k a day is a good enough reward for the majority - especially if you are not using $100k of capital to achieve it ;-)

Anyway - back to learning more next year and in another 10 yrs - I should be good ;-)

Regards

F

 

[Solas0077]

O.K. so for a relative newbie with (let us assume) good money management, r/r, good discipline and mindset as well as an edge, is it realistic to expect to make say 1% per week or 4% per month on your account if day/swing trading?

Thanks

Better think along these lines: is it realistic to expect that some other people will lose that much to you?

 

[ErikBobbink]

Maybe, but not day or swing trading

O.K. so for a relative newbie with (let us assume) good money management, r/r, good discipline and mindset as well as an edge, is it realistic to expect to make say 1% per week or 4% per month on your account if day/swing trading?

Thanks

It is definitely possible to beat the market, but you should not churn your account. You should also avoid the risk of a big drawdown taking you down in your first year.

Take care,

Erik

 

[Solas0077]

It is definitely possible to beat the market, but you should not churn your account. You should also avoid the risk of a big drawdown taking you down in your first year.

Take care,

Erik

Good advice to start with

 

[ErikBobbink]

A few more tips

Good advice to start with

Yeah you can definitely beat the market if you try hard enough

Try to think outside the box, for example, at the moment I am studying volatility ETFs and VIX strategies which are brand new and where the big boys don't have an advantage.

Also read as much as possible from great financial authors and turn off the general news which is harmful.