Price

[AsifA]

Although I only think I understand it my main concern is to learn how to recognise and prepare for it. Much like the weather. In doing so, trading becomes much more of an art than a science. Abandoning charts and indicators is the best thing I have done since I began day trading.

"Abandoning charts....." would you care to expand on that ? Tom Williamson has a brilliant book, along the same lines of that Albert labos's teachings ( whatever you may or not may think of him - for me the Jury is out). i am inclined towards these darksiders, but still have not got to grips with trading without indicators. Tom's book goes into detail about how correctly to read the signals, no idea what Albert was talking about in his Journey from the basement though although I got the vague jist of it. Makes compelling reading though.

 

[new_trader]

"What is the Matrix?"

"Abandoning charts....." would you care to expand on that ? Tom Williamson has a brilliant book, along the same lines of that Albert labos's teachings ( whatever you may or not may think of him - for me the Jury is out). i am inclined towards these darksiders, but still have not got to grips with trading without indicators. Tom's book goes into detail about how correctly to read the signals, no idea what Albert was talking about in his Journey from the basement though although I got the vague jist of it. Makes compelling reading though.

I like to refer to it by it's original name - Tape Reading. I want to make it abundantly clear that I consider myself a student of the tape. I have spent and continue to spend many hours practicing with a bespoke simulator using historical data, I also watch and trade the live markets and I concur with and fully endorse this excerpt:

There are plenty of technical indicators used by traders in different combinations. Many of them are very sophisticated and computers make it easy to watch them in real time. However, Tape Reading is a truly universal method that can be combined with any technical study, and we suggest it as a base for any other method traders like. Sophisticated indicators based on complicated calculations tend to somewhat mask the reality of a scenario happening. Tape Reading goes right to the roots of the stock’s action. This is necessary for newer traders.

Like no other method, Tape Reading deals with reality itself allowing traders to see market moving forces in action and to judge which one prevails at that moment. It provides us with a look into what other players try to hide and then allows us to separate reality from our perception. The best example of this is as old as the Wall Street situation of “selling on news”. There are numerous examples of “XYZ is selling on such a great news.” Tape Reading shows why and how it happens. This tells you when you should expect non-conventional action on the stock and how to exploit it.

Tape Reading deals with two major categories of market players. They are the Smart Money and the Public. You can replace these old terms with any pair you like (big guys and small time traders, insiders and online traders, institutions and retail traders, etc). However, the core of market events is the same. Tape Reading is a method of analyzing which side is doing what at that moment. Analysis is done by observing the only, and ultimately, truthful indicators of Price and Volume Action.

It has taken 2 years of arduous effort and painstaking trials of different methods to arrive at the same conclusion but I now have the knowledge necessary to learn how to trade properly. I want to add that Albert (who I think posted here as SOCRATES) was instrumental in steering me in what I consider to be the right direction. You either understood him or you didn't. Everything he has said, whilst vague and cryptic, makes a great deal of sense when in his words, it finally lands. I think his his Journey from the basement thread is sensational.

I compare my journey as a Trader to that of NEO in the movie "The Matrix". I think the movie serves as an excellent metaphor for many things in life and trading, especially Tape Reading, is a perfect example. If you can't be bothered watching the movie you can read about the plot here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Matrix

 

[blackcab]

technical analysis is a tool nothing more nothing less its aim is to cash in on the repetitive nature of markets

fundamental analysis aims to explain conviniently why a market has reacted or a reason to react but the intention was always there prior

therefore there is another force that drives markets and that force is the single reason why markets exist

What is that force? Is it something more than each participant trying to redistribute wealth in its favour?

Some of the smarter posters on here - you, mr.marcus, Socrates - talk about intent. Is it as simple or fundamental as one party having a long-term plan (accumulate stock cheaply in XXX, force the price up and sell it), and executing that plan on a shorter timescale (using the stock they've accumulated, create spikes, selloffs, engineer well-known price patterns, create shocks of whatever kind)?

In other words, when you talk of 'intent', this intent is still 'buy low sell high', making use of various tactics, especially tactics only available to those who own a large amount of stock? We're not talking of anything grander than that are we?

 

[new_trader]

In other words, when you talk of 'intent', this intent is still 'buy low sell high', making use of various tactics, especially tactics only available to those who own a large amount of stock? We're not talking of anything grander than that are we?

Intent cannot be described simply as 'buy low sell high' because it doesn't really paint the full picture. Intent is what the big players want the market/stock to do in order to make their operation a success. If the professionals wish to accumulate stock that they do not have then their intent would be to mark down the price so that they can buy it cheaper. If they wish to distribute stock that they have accumulated then their intent will be to mark up the price. Identifying the 'intent' means determining whether a stock is being accumulated or distributed because the public really has no idea of what 'low' and 'high' actually means to a professional.

 

[SOCRATES]

May I ?

I like to refer to it by it's original name - Tape Reading. I want to make it abundantly clear that I consider myself a student of the tape. I have spent and continue to spend many hours practicing with a bespoke simulator using historical data, I also watch and trade the live markets and I concur with and fully endorse this excerpt:



It has taken 2 years of arduous effort and painstaking trials of different methods to arrive at the same conclusion but I now have the knowledge necessary to learn how to trade properly. I want to add that Albert (who I think posted here as SOCRATES) was instrumental in steering me in what I consider to be the right direction. You either understood him or you didn't. Everything he has said, whilst vague and cryptic, but only to aspirants unwilling or unable, or both, to push the envelope of their own personal level of awareness and self responsibility,makes a great deal of sense when in his words, it finally lands. I think his his Journey from the basement thread is sensational.

I compare my journey as a Trader to that of NEO in the movie "The Matrix". I think the movie serves as an excellent metaphor for many things in life and trading, especially Tape Reading, is a perfect example. If you can't be bothered watching the movie you can read about the plot here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Matrix

Thank You.

 

[AsifA]

you need to get the interpretation correct
pros sell into a bullish market because they accumulated whilst everyone was diving for cover as the market begins to move up ...

I was just going through the thread again. Can you explain the above the sentence. Why would everyone be diving for cover if the markey is going up ? The sentiment wouyld be everyone would be buying into it, thinking its going past the moon and taking a left at Mars - right Socrates ?

 

[AsifA]

and sorry about the typos- hard to partake in the forum when (a) you have poor typing skills and (b) you have to look over your shoulder.

 

[andycan]

you need to get the interpretation correct
pros sell into a bullish market because they accumulated whilst everyone was diving for cover as the market begins to move up ...

I was just going through the thread again. Can you explain the above the sentence. Why would everyone be diving for cover if the markey is going up ? The sentiment wouyld be everyone would be buying into it, thinking its going past the moon and taking a left at Mars - right Socrates ?

i should have made it a bit clearer
when we had this sharp move down on the US averages there was program trades covering and many longs got out,
the sentiment was we have a major major correction due, the threads here are full of comments dow going far lower than it actually did
the point i was making is whilst this move was happening the pro were accumulating and everyone else involved covered that was my reference
even though the move down was fast an furious and to the majority the begining of a potential bear market, to the pro it was nothing but a chance to buy cheaper do uc now?

 

[andycan]

What is that force? Is it something more than each participant trying to redistribute wealth in its favour?

Some of the smarter posters on here - you, mr.marcus, Socrates - talk about intent. Is it as simple or fundamental as one party having a long-term plan (accumulate stock cheaply in XXX, force the price up and sell it), and executing that plan on a shorter timescale (using the stock they've accumulated, create spikes, selloffs, engineer well-known price patterns, create shocks of whatever kind)?

In other words, when you talk of 'intent', this intent is still 'buy low sell high', making use of various tactics, especially tactics only available to those who own a large amount of stock? We're not talking of anything grander than that are we?

Blackcab

there is a reason why old money is old money
these people. groups, syndicates whatever you wish to call them were instrumental in the creation of what you now call exchanges
you are playing in their playground plain and simple

 

[AsifA]

i should have made it a bit clearer
when we had this sharp move down on the US averages there was program trades covering and many longs got out,
the sentiment was we have a major major correction due, the threads here are full of comments dow going far lower than it actually did
the point i was making is whilst this move was happening the pro were accumulating and everyone else involved covered that was my reference
even though the move down was fast an furious and to the majority the begining of a potential bear market, to the pro it was nothing but a chance to buy cheaper do uc now?

Yup, makes sense.

 

[AsifA]

I take it as read that price action is not the driving force in forex. The market cant be influenced by any one MM or group. Its just too big ? right ?

 

[AsifA]

Blackcab

there is a reason why old money is old money
these people. groups, syndicates whatever you wish to call them were instrumental in the creation of what you now call exchanges
you are playing in their playground plain and simple

and we ain't welcome, but if we want to stay - we have to pay !

 

[dcraig1]

In another thread, the excellent point was made that if these "professionals" or "smart money" are so frequently on the right side of the market, why do so few managed funds manage to beat index benchmarks. Are they not run by professionals ? No doubt the same is true of hedge funds.

The issue really is that there are many professionals playing different strategies over different time frames. And they are trading against each probably a lot more than against the retail trader or retail investor.

Which kind of reduces the definition of "professional" as used in this thread to those that are on the right side of the market - not especially useful.

 

[andycan]

I take it as read that price action is not the driving force in forex. The market cant be influenced by any one MM or group. Its just too big ? right ?

forex is bank led again this is their playground

 

[andycan]

and we ain't welcome, but if we want to stay - we have to pay !

oh we are its the perception that we have a chance that keeps them fat and rich
and sometimes the average joe takes money out of their pocket in fact there are many traders that take their money.
but like a casino 1 or 2 hit the jackpot whilst the majority dont
thats more than enough to keep the status quo

 

[andycan]

Which kind of reduces the definition of "professional"

exactly the definition is paramount

 

[new_trader]

In another thread, the excellent point was made that if these "professionals" or "smart money" are so frequently on the right side of the market, why do so few managed funds manage to beat index benchmarks. Are they not run by professionals ? No doubt the same is true of hedge funds.

The issue really is that there are many professionals playing different strategies over different time frames. And they are trading against each probably a lot more than against the retail trader or retail investor.

Which kind of reduces the definition of "professional" as used in this thread to those that are on the right side of the market - not especially useful.

Where is it stated that they are frequently on the right side of the market? The assertion is that professionals have the capital to manipulate the market. They are still taking a risk just like everyone else but isn't it better to hitch a ride on a whale than a shrimp?

 

[dcraig1]

Where is it stated that they are frequently on the right side of the market? The assertion is that professionals have the capital to manipulate the market. They are still taking a risk just like everyone else but isn't it better to hitch a ride on a whale than a shrimp?

The point I was making is that professionals are not a homogeneous group and are on both sides the the market. The markets are not composed of professionals Vs the rest.

 

[andycan]

the definition of a professional is someone who makes money out of what they do

what one needs to do is to categorise these professionals and their roles

 

[Paul71]

I take it as read that price action is not the driving force in forex. The market cant be influenced by any one MM or group. Its just too big ? right ?

1.9982?

1.9 would do.

1.99 if you are really that type of person or an economist.

So why the 8 and 2 on the end of that?

The thousand and tenth of thousand digits are there so the price can be fluctuated enough to hoover up all that dumb money.

Don't they do a good job.