If charts are so true, how can so many get it wrong?
You have to separate what a chart stands for from what people try to do with it. A chart depicts what has taken place in the market. That is true. Now, people try to use charts to estimate probabilities of future events. But,
Since probability of an event and the certain event are not related at all (first thing your prof. will tell you in a probability course) it turns out that many get it wrong. It also turns out that the number of people that get it wrong is more than the Fibo number 0.618. Also, a good portion of those that get it right are squeezed out or play it wrong. The result is that about 90% - 95% are wrong about their final decision using charts.
Alex
It all about knowing what the public are going to do. Yes you need charts to see what the fools are doing
What % of people/participants need to get it right/wrong to feed the other?
Hmmm... difficult question. Academics will tell you that a market does not move when the uninformed participants are not there since the informed ones do not have incentive to be there.
I would say 95% is right but it is not even enough for the sharks. they have expensive hobbits, they drink cocktails that cost 500 euro a glass and have companions that charge 1000 euro per day. That is the reason they need bubble markets. They have gotten one just going...
Alex
It all about knowing what the public are going to do. Yes you need charts to see what the fools are doing
Have you seen all the available info?
