Price Action and the Dow 30

[Blue Ruin]

IBM

There are a few things worth watching today. IBM is probably the pick of the bunch. Yesterday it broke through and closed above the 100 mark.

Chart 1
A reminder of how important this level is historically. This chart goes back to 2003, but the 100 level first came into play in 1999, and since then the price has rarely moved through that level without reacting to it.

Chart 2
If you go all the way down to the hourly you can see that already it is playing with that exact level from the other side.

I'll be watching closely for some solid PA. At levels like this it is tempting to play the pivot on its merits alone without waiting for price action.

Must be patient.

 

[Blue Ruin]

CAT

3200 has been an important area since October (the blue area on the chart).

It is a key pivot point, and there is fib confluence from the Jan high. I'd hesitate to get short on this regardless of the PA it throws up as the trend seems to be running out of steam. Any move down would be short lived and thus not something I'm interestesed in.

Note the inverted head and shoulders that adds weight to a possible break of 3200. The neckline has technically been broken but I think the 3200 level is the one that needs watching.

I'll look for a solid break of 3200 and a PA entry that will get me long. From there it is feasible to look toward 4000 at least, then 4500.

Getting ahead of myself.

Just watching for now.

 

[Blue Ruin]

HD

One to watch.

 

[Blue Ruin]

There's a relatively low risk setup in play on IBM. Inside bar just above the key level of 100. (See a couple of posts back for info on the importance of this level.)

I'm going to watch today and see how it moves. Hopefully it will throw up a lower TF entry.

Playing golf this afternoon so hopefully it's a quiet NY open.

 

[Blue Ruin]

WMT

Poor figures out before open meant a gap down of over 250 pips.

Significant slippage.

Position closed for a 201 pip loss.

Sh1t happens.

 

[Blue Ruin]

Now I remember why I trade forex...

 

[elitejets]

That sucks about WMT this mornng.
Great thread tho ... thanks Blue

 

[Blue Ruin]

That sucks about WMT this mornng.
Great thread tho ... thanks Blue

Cheers Nicola.

I think I need to tighten my entries a bit to leave a better buffer for slippage. The WMT entry was at the limit of my 2% risk allowance so the slippage took it well into unacceptable territory (close to 3%).

Still, a 250 pip gap is going to screw me regardless.

Or make me richer.

Swings and roundabouts, as they say.

 

[Blue Ruin]

An overzealous registry cleaner deleted all my charts and all my metatrader profiles.

I should be back up and running by this afternoon.

Met is forecasting 22 today. Might have to set up in the garden... It's quite sad really. I moved here from Australia 3 years ago and already I'm getting excited about 22 degrees.